Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Current Focus and Future Priorities

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• Climate Change and Indian Agriculture Current
  Focus and Future Priorities

P.K. Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research
Institute New Delhi India
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Climate and Indian Agriculture

• Indian agriculture is considerably dependant on
  changes in weather
• Contribution of agriculture to GDP is decreasing
  yet large population dependent on this for
  livelihoods
• Need to understand the impacts of increasing
  climatic risks and possible adaptations

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Approach Experiments modelling

• Models of food production

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InfoCrop A User-friendly Crop Modelling System

• Model responds to change in
• Environment Radiation temperature CO2
  rainfall wind speed vapor pressure flooding
  frost
• Soil
• Variety
• Agronomic Management
• Pests population
• Has been validated for rice wheat maize
  sorghum cotton potato groundnut soybean
  mustard in different agro-climatic regions

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Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on
Wheat Yields in North India
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Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change
Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India
2080
2050
2020
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Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply
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Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
Demand
Supply
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Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
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Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
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Agro-Ecological Regions
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Validation of InfoCrop for wheat producing states
Another validation with the parent model-WTGROWS-
using FACE experiment at USA- showed good
agreement with field observations
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Regional climate change scenarios

• PRECIS A2 scenario
• Daily values for 2070-2099 period

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Total number of frost days at Delhi for observed
and baseline scenario
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Total number of rainy days at Delhi for observed
and baseline scenario
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Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
pessimistic technology scenario HaDCM3-2020
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Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
pessimistic technology scenario
HaDCM3 scenarios
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Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
paradise technology scenario
HaDCM3 scenarios
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Declining Response of Wheat to Improved
Management in Global Warming Scenarios
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Relation of Recent Weather Trends with Yields of
Paddy and Wheat
Decline in yield is apparently also related to
decrease in radiation and increase in minimum
temperature
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Evidences in Recent Past Estimated impact of
heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production

• Increased heat 5-8 oC in north and central
  India from 5th March to 28th March 2004
• Caused a loss of 4.5 million tons of wheat

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Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on
wheat production
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Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process

• Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of
  climatic adaptation
• Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed
  by technology availability their socio-economic
  capacity and economics.
• Induced adaptation by innovation
• Green revolution of 1960s
• Resource conservation technologies such as zero
  tillage
• GMOs

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Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to
climatic stress practiced by farmers

• Drought proofing by mixed cropping
• Low yielding tolerant crops
• Resource conservation
• Single cropping
• Frost management by irrigation
• Heat stress alleviation by frequent irrigation
• Shelter belts

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Adaptation options to climatic change autonomous

• Changing varieties/crops
• altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or
  fruit quality and be more suited to the
  prevailing climate
• altering amounts and timing of irrigation
• harvest water
• conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue
  retention)
• use water more effectively
• altering the timing or location of cropping
  activities
• diversifying income including livestock raising

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Scope of autonomous adaptations in wheat in north
India in different scenarios
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Constraints in autonomous adaptations

• Availability at desired time
• Fields for desired activity
• Extension services for management of adapted
  variety if different
• Seeds of adapted varieties
• Irrigation water fertilizer and machinery
• Costs of adaptation- unknown

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Adaptation options to climatic change Planned

• Investments in adaptation research capacity
• Improved communication of climate changes and
  options to adapt to them
• Investments in infrastructure for water
  management and for product transportation and
  marketing
• Changes in policies and institutions e.g.
  incentives for resource conservation and use
  efficiency
• Credit for transition to adaptation technologies
• Relocation to more productive areas
• Creating alternate livelihood options and
  reducing dependence on agriculture
• Greater insurance coverage for the farm

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Conclusions
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Future priorities Complex future agriculture
scenario

• Increasing demands for food
• Reducing/stagnating crop yields fatigue of
  intensive agriculture and climate change
• Reducing availability of natural resources for
  agriculture
• Need for increased resources land water
  fertilizers capital
• Need to preserve environment
• Greater environmental impact of agriculture

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Agriculture in an Uncertain Future Need for
Integrated Action

• Assess vulnerability of agriculture to global
  climate change in a changing global scenario
  (demands markets technologies natural
  resources)
• Develop research infrastructure for assessment of
  direct impacts- FACE FATE
• Develop models for integrated assessment
• Need to link sectoral research- scenarios of
  climate change- water resources agriculture and
  other sectors- policy -feedbacks
• Identify research/technology/policy options for
  short-term
• Focus on no-regrets options

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Indian National Network Impacts Adaptation
and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to
Climatic ChangeInvolves 16 research
institutes gt60 scientists
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Specific Information Needs

• Impact on food (crops milk fish) demand and
  supply- spatial and temporal differences
• Impact on nutrition cereals legumes oil crops
• Impact on commercial crops (quality and
  quantity)- spices tea coffee medicinal plants
• Impact on trade internal and external
• Impact on natural resources- soil water and air
• Impact on farmers livelihood
• Options to enhance adaptive capacity - farmer
  level regional differences government level
• Potential of agricultural land as carbon sink
• Policy implications link with current
  development plans

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Information Needs on Vulnerability of
Agricultural Sector

• Can we remain self-sufficient in food despite
  global climatic changes urbanization and trade
  liberalization
• Which regions and the social groups are more
  vulnerable to climatic change
• How will enhanced climatic risks affect
  livelihoods of resource-poor farmers- hill
  coastal tribals
• How should different farmers adapt to cope with
  climate change (in the background of changing
  scenario of demand and markets)

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Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on
Environment Information Needs

• Can alternate land use systems such as
  plantations and agroforestry increase carbon
  sequestration and yet meet food demand
• How much area can be taken out from agriculture
  for forestry where and what policy measures
  would be needed
• How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage
  options For how long
• What is the potential of biofuels for carbon
  mitigation what policies and technologies would
  ensure their adoption by farming community

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Need for research infrastructure