Gas Customer Forum Transmission Update

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Gas Customer ForumTransmission Update

• Chris Logue
• 9th July 2007

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Items

• Gas Quality
• Web Site
• Introduction to MIPI
• Winter Outlook

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Gas Quality

• Commenced UNC Workshops to work up the
  requirements of Ofgems previous consultation
  process.
• NG invest to provide service
• User commitment to send investment signal to NG
• Process currently stalled pending a new
  consultation document from Ofgem

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Market Information Provision Initiative
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Market Information Provision

• Content of presentation
• Evolution of current system (IE3)
• Current Presentation of Information
• Drivers for Change
• Market Information Provision Initiative (MIPI)
• MIPI presentation Concepts
• MIPI future communications

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IE3 Evolution the story so far

• Developed in 2000 to provide after the day
  reports via a web interface on a 9-5 working week
  basis
• Replaced manual creation and paper copy NCORM
  reports being issued via post to Shippers only.
• New reports including within day reports
  identified as part of DTI Information Initiative
  added 2003/4
• inc NTSAFF, NTSAPF, NTSEOD etc
• Gradual addition of other reporting, particularly
  near to real time information
• Daily Summary Report introduced for winter 2005/6
• GMRS Real Time Flow Data introduced for winter
  2006/7
• Most comprehensive public gas market information
  system in Europe - if not the world

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IE3 Current Presentation
Information provided in 2 ways

• Daily Summary Report
• Provides a snapshot of prevailing data
• Provides Alarms, notes and messages
• Updated within-day as information becomes
  available
• Graphical history to give context
• Key point of entry for most users
• Key data not all available on the screen at the
  same time

• Reports in .PDF and .CSV formats (viewable and/or
  downloadable)
• Within-day
• Daily
• Weekly
• Monthly
• Inflexible from a user perspective (date ranges,
  report content etc)
• no automated interface
• Complicated reports with non-intuitive names and
  content

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Drivers for Change

• Utilisation of IE3 increased 20 fold in the last
  3 years
• High availability and Timeliness of information
  publication to promote open market conditions
  through increased transparency of data to all
  industry participants
• Increasing future links to global markets and
  European supplies
• Evolving market conditions and the dynamic nature
  of the market
• Shift in data use and requirements
• Data volume required for market modelling
• Offline analytical and user side decision making
  tools
• Limited extensibility for IE3 to accommodate
  additional functionality, including Regulatory
  changes (mod 97a, 104, 130, UNC 140 info review)

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MIPI

• Market Information Provision Initiative

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MIPI07 Future
Presentation of Information

• Information provided data-centrically
• Highly resilient, stable platform
• Provides information in a user friendly way
  reflecting the GMRS approach
• Overview page provides
• Within day data
• Update upon complete data set receipt
• Added value and meaning to information
• Explorer pages provide
• Access to any stored data
• User choice of period range
• Delivery as view, XML, API for data and reports

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MIPI07 Key Points for Future

• Effective
• Clean, uncluttered approach for operational data
  Users
• User friendly and Intuitive
• Provide various ways to access the information to
  maximise benefits for widest range of users
• Forward Looking
• More data, in less time
• Extensibility for regulatory and market change
• Transitional Change
• Current report based functionality retained
  within MIPI.

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Presentation Concepts

• Three Tier

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Presentation Concepts

• Tier 1 Overview Page
• Provides a holistic view of the system with Key
  Data updated on or relating to the current Gas
  Day.
• Tier 2 Data Item Explorer
• Provides a facility for the user to select data
  items and date range to view, and / or download
  in XML or CSV format
• Tier 3 Report Explorer
• Provides a facility to view and or download a
  series of predefined Data Items in XML or CSV
  format
• that have been identified as a set of Data Points
  that users commonly retrieve.
• that are obligated within code to be provided
  within a single report (currently NCORM)
• A series of Data Points that logically provide a
  holistic view of an issue or field of interest

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MIPI future communications

• Planned communications for MIPI include
• Web News (July)
• Regional Seminars (August / September)
• API specific seminar (August)
• API Documentation (August)
• Trade journalist seminar (August / September)
• Industry Groups presentations (September)
• Go-Live October

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Winter Consultation Report June 2007
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Gas Demand

• Now updated, similar to 2006 forecast for 2007/8
• Marginally higher due to lower gas price
  increasing demand in power generation sector
• Power generation forecasts are now forecast on a
  quarterly basis with Jan March using gas as the
  marginal fuel with the rest of the year as the
  preferred fuel
• Historical assessment of demands continues to
  provide sound validation of techniques used

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Power generation assessment

• Average Cold Spell (ACS) 60.8 GW
• Plant margin 23
• Average plant availability 86 (CCGTs 90)
• Demand side response from CCGTs is limited at
  peak demands as coal is already assumed as the
  preferred generating source
• At lower demands 10 20 mcm/d of additional gas
  could be made available to the market

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Within day power generation profile cold weekday
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Transportation Issues

• Interruption for capacity management is available
  to transporters but not expected at material
  levels
• Supply patterns expected to shift to reflect new
  imports, considerable investment has been made
  for these to honour Baselines
• If implemented, trades and transfers
  Modifications may impact Baselines
• Easington Pannel to Nether Kellet on schedule,
  primarily for Aldbrough but will provide capacity
  to Easington area when Hornsea or Aldbrough flows
  are reduced
• Milford Haven both connecting pipelines (MH to
  Aberdulais Felindre to Tirley) still target
  completion for next winter

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UKCS Forecast

• 2006/7 UKCS supplies inline with forecast
  (except for low flows from
• high swing fields at Bacton and Barrow
• 14 mcm/d of new fields included in 2007/8
  forecast
• 90 supply availability used for operational
  planning (227 mcm/d)

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Imports (1)

• IUK
• Further expansion planned to 74 mcm/d
• Expected to operate as marginal source of supply,
  following price differentials
• Expected to have higher import potential post
  December
• BBL
• Expected to flow at near uniform 25 mcm/d to
  satisfy Centrica contract (3 bcm summer, 5 bcm
  winter)
• Norway
• Ormen Lange still reported to be on schedule for
  October delivery
• High volumes expected through Langeled
  Vesterled with low volumes through newly
  completed Tampen Link
• Langeled imports assumed at 45 mcm/d to enable
  near full volumes from Rough. Higher volumes may
  impact other Easington deliveries

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Imports (2)

• LNG
• New deliveries expected this winter from Milford
  Haven
• Dragon expected Q4 2007
• South Hook expected Q2 2008, hence excluded from
  forecasts
• Grain expected to operate as in 2006/7
• Due to lower gas price, Teessport not expected to
  operate at base load
• All LNG is subject to risk of cargo diversion to
  US and other markets

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Non-Storage Supplies

• Whilst latest view for 2007/8 suggest much higher
  non-storage supplies than
• for last winter, considerable supply uncertainty
  exists
• UKCS lower supply availability, no flow from
  high swing supplies
• Norway Ormen Lange delayed, higher flows to
  Continent
• IUK exports due to well supplied UK
• BBL lower flows due to renegotiated contract
  with Centrica or virtual exports
• LNG commissioning or NTS delays, diverted
  cargoes
• Besides down side risk there is also upside
  possibilities for all sources
• For assessment consider a /- 30 mcm/d supply
  range

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Storage

• For next winter we anticipate higher storage
  availability through
• Hole House Farm increased deliverability
• Aldbrough new salt cavity storage, phased
  build-up of capacity expected

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Supply Availability for Average Conditions
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Supply Availability for Severe Conditions
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Cold Spell Analysis
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2007/8 Safety Monitors

• Published May 31st 2007
• Higher non storage supply leads to reduced safety
  monitor levels
• Supply assumptions used are broadly consistent
  with WCR2 but with an additional supply risk of
  20 mcm/d