The Coastal Change Analysis Program: Mapping Change and Monitoring Change Trends in the Coastal Zone

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The Coastal Change Analysis ProgramMapping
Change and Monitoring Change Trends in the
Coastal Zone
Shan Burkhalter Nate Herold and Chris
Robinson NOAA Coastal Services Center
18 May, 2005 MultiTemp 05 Biloxi Mississippi
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Outline

• Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)
• Background
• Current Mapping
• Application Examples
• Trend Analysis Demonstration Project
• Future plans

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Background
Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)

• Conceived in the late 1980s
• Implemented as a NOAA program in the mid-1990s
  via grants and cooperative agreements
• Modifying the C-CAP approach
• Utilize common, automated procedures (USGS/MRLC)

Objective To improve scientific understanding
of the linkages between coastal wetland habitats,
adjacent uplands, and living marine resources
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Early C-CAP Projects
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Coastal Change Analysis Program
Spatial Data Development

• Current Approach
• Landsat-based (regional scale) - land cover and
  change data
• USGS collaboration The National Map national
  land cover database
• NOAA/USGS joint specifications
• Coordination with state programs
• Coordination with Multi-Resolution Land
  Characteristics (MRLC) consortium
• Outcomes
• Nationally consistent baseline of coastal land
  cover and change data
• Comprehensive coastal zone coverage
• Field validated, including Federal Geographic
  Data Committee (FGDC) metadata
• Future Plans Incorporation of higher resolution
  data

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Coastal Change Analysis Program
Spatial Data Development
How are the data being used?

• Framework for evaluating links between land and
  water quality
• Impervious estimations (NEMO network)
• Regional planning and assessments
• Selecting conservation areas (NJ)
• Managing habitat and development (Casco Bay
  Watershed, ME)
• Nonpoint source pollution assessment (Carmans
  River, NY)
• Habitat fragmentation analysis (Long Island, NY)

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Land Cover Trend Analysis Project Objectives

• Add a recent era of imagery to the existing C-CAP
  land cover change product
• Identify, acquire, and process early era imagery
• Document the methodology to generate a multi-era
  land cover database
• Produce an example database of multi-era land
  cover and change
• Use the resulting change database to examine land
  cover change trends

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Data SourcesCoastal Change Analysis Program
(C-CAP)
Standard C-CAP Product
Early era

• Landsat TM/ETM derived
• 30-meter resolution
• Coastal land cover inventory
• 2 eras of land cover
• Database of land cover change

Late era
Detected Change
Change Database
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Data SourcesNorth American Landscape
Characterization (NALC)

• Cooperative effort of
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  (NASA)
• NALC provides co-registered sets of remotely
  sensed data from the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s for
  the purpose of studying environmental change.

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Data SourcesNorth American Landscape
Characterization (NALC)
Standard NALC Product
1970s MSS

• Landsat MSS
• Coterminous U.S. coverage
• Georeferenced
• Terrain corrected
• Resampled to 60-meter pixel

1980s MSS, NDVI
1990s MSS, NDVI
DEM
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Data SourcesProject Data Inventory
Trend Analysis Project Data
MSS 1972
MSS 1986
TM 1990
TM 1995
ETM 2000
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MSS 1972
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MSS 1986
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TM 1990
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TM 1995
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ETM 2000
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Study Area
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Land Cover Classification Scheme
Classes used for Trend Analysis Pilot Project

• 15 Categories
• Forest Land
• Deciduous forest
• Evergreen forest
• Mixed forest
• Emergent Marsh Wetland
• Palustrine emergent
• Estuarine emergent

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Project Methodology

• Era to era image differencing
• NDVI subtraction
• Band 4 subtraction
• Use the 1990 and 1995 Land Cover to fill in no
  change pixels
• 1990-1986
• 1986-1972
• 1995-2000
• Use additional eras of imagery to classify the
  areas identified as change
• Apply the change land cover areas to the
  unchanged base to get full land cover for the
  next year
• Compare the two eras to derive a matrix of change
• Use all dates to create multi era change database

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Land Cover Update Overview
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Image Difference
1986-1990
Histogram of Difference Pixels
-238 0
211
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Interpret Likely Change
1986 Change Mask
Histogram of Difference Pixels
-238 0
211
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Classify Change Areas
1986 Classified MSS
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Insert Classified Change into 1990 Map
1990 Existing Land Cover
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Produce Land Cover for 1986
1986 Land Cover
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Land Cover Change Results1986 to 1990 Matrix
Change
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Land Cover Change Results
1986 - 1990
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Land Cover Results
1972
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Land Cover Results
1986
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Land Cover Results
1990
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Land Cover Results
1995
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Land Cover Results
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Land Cover Change Results
1972 - 1986
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Land Cover Change Results
1990 - 2000
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Land Cover Change Results1972 to 2000 Tabulation
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Land Cover Change Results1972 to 2000
Logarithmic Graph
Acreage
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Example Subset
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Example Subset
Acreage
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Example Subset1972

Acreage
1972
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Example Subset1986

Acreage
1986
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Example Subset1990
Acreage
1990
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Example Subset1995
Acreage
1995
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Example Subset2000
Acreage
2000
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Land Cover Change Results1972 to 2000 Graph
Acreage
Acreage
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1972 to 2000 Graph Linear Trend Line
Acreage
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1972 to 2000 Graph Linear Trend Line - Forecast
Forward 10 years
Acreage
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1972 to 2000 Graph Linear Trend Line - Forecast
Forward 10 years
R2 0.8347
R2 0.9231
R2 0.2276
R2 0.7154
R2 0.3711
Acreage
R2 0.2166
R2 0.9391
R2 0.7766
R2 0.4349
R2 0.7774
R2 0.0516
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1972 to 2000 Graph Linear Trend Line - Forecast
Forward 10 years
R2 0.8347
R2 0.9231
R2 0.3711
Acreage
R2 0.2166
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1972 to 2000 Graph Linear Trend Line - Forecast
Forward 10 years
Acreage
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Coastal Change Analysis Program
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Project Summary

• Added a recent era of imagery to the existing
  C-CAP land cover change product
• Added retrospective imagery from the NALC Archive
• Detected differences among the input imagery
• Classified areas of change
• Produce an example database of multi-era land
  cover and change
• Used the resulting change database to examine
  land cover change trends and forecasts

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Coastal Change Analysis ProgramTrend Analysis
For More Information
Shan.Burkhalter_at_noaa.gov
www.csc.noaa.gov/landcover