The contribution of land evaluation and crop growth simulation to integrate economic and land use mo

1
The contribution of land evaluation and crop
growth simulation to integrate economic and land
use modeling

• Research Team
• Pierpaolo Duce
• Donatella Spano
• Carla Cesaraccio
• Valentina Mereu
• Pierpaolo Zara

• Pierpaolo Duce
• III Workshop CMCC, Ugento
• June 10th-12th 2009

2
OUTLINE
CMCC IAFENT

• Biophysics/Bioclimatologypotential for land use
  modeling improvement
• Land Evaluation Techniques (LET)
• Capability Vs Suitability
• Crop growth models
• (Near) Future Work

3
CMCC IAFENT
Bioclimatology potential for land use modeling
(1)
Final Land Allocation
Economic drivers
Physical Climatic drivers

Land mobile between crop and livestock sectors
regardless climatic or soil constraints

• Climatic variables
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Solar radiation

Prices, GDP growth Population Labor force Capital
stock Other economic variables
Biophysical Bioclimatic variables - Land
Capability for Agriculture - Agro-Ecological
Zoning - Land Suitability - Crop modeling
4
CMCC IAFENT
Bioclimatology potential for land use modeling
(2)
Final Land Allocation
Land Use Change modeling
Physical, Climatic Bioclimatic drivers
Economic drivers

• Climatic variables
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Solar radiation
• Soil properties
• texture, depth, moisture availability,
  drainage
• Biophysical Bioclimatic variables
• Land Capability
• Agro-Ecological Zoning
• Land Suitability
• Crop modeling

Land mobile between crop and livestock sectors
regardless climatic or soil constraints
Prices, GDP growth Population Labor force Capital
stock Other economic variables
5
Land Evaluation Techniques (LET)
CMCC IAFENT
Capability and/or Suitability rating
6
LET Capability Vs Suitability (1)
CMCC IAFENT

• Land Capability (for Agriculture)
• Inherent capacity of land to perform at a
  given level for agriculture use
• Land Suitability (for Agriculture)
• Potential performances of land when used
  for specific crop or group of crops

7
CMCC IAFENT
LET Capability Vs Suitability (2)
8
Land Capability for Agriculture (1)
CMCC IAFENT
9
CMCC IAFENT
Land Capability for Agriculture (2)
LCA based on soil properties
LCA based on climate
10
CMCC IAFENT
Land Capability for Agriculture (3)
Actual climate
A1B 2050
A1B 2100
Maroc LCA based on soil climate
11
CMCC IAFENT
Land Suitability (1)
MarocWinter wheat rainfedLand
requirements (crop specific)
12
CMCC IAFENT
Land Suitability (2)
Maroc Winter wheat rainfedLand requirements
Crop specific
13
CMCC IAFENT
Land Suitability (3)
A2 2080 Hadley Center
Baseline period
Maroc Winter wheat rainfed
N
14
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (1)
2007
15
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (2)
2007
O U T P U T
16
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (3)
2007
Length Growing Period
1961-1990
HadCM3 A2 2020
HadCM3 A2 - 2050
HadCM3 A2 - 2080
17
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (4)
2007
WheatSuitability index
1961-1990
HadCM3 A2 2020
HadCM3 A2 - 2050
HadCM3 A2 - 2080
18
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (5)
2007
List of crops (23 major crops)

19
CMCC IAFENT
Agro-Ecological Zoning AEZ (6)
2007
List of crops/LUTs

20
CMCC IAFENT
Bioclimatology potential for land use modeling
21
Crop growth models Spatial crop model
simulation
CMCC IAFENT
Regional scale
Local scale
Yield simulated with observed weather series
Interpolated yields (from a set of learning
stations)

• Crop growth simulation model es. CERES-Wheat
• Data n weather stations
• soil map

Spatial analysis Step 1 the model is used to
run all possible combination of weather station
soil type Each simulation 99-years crop model
run with synthetic weather data Present
climate Future climate Step 2 crop yields are
interpolated into a soil grid map for each grid
box yield is interpolated from all the
simulations made for a given grid-specific soil
type
22
Crop growth models Spatial crop model
simulation
CMCC IAFENT
23
NEEDED STEPS TO INTEGRATE BIOCLIMATIC ANALYSIS
INTO CLUE-ICES COUPLING (1)
CMCC IAFENT

• Land uses harmonization - possible common
  aggregation of LUTs - AEZ Vs GTAP-AEZ
  aggregation - focusing on specific crops
  for the euro-Mediterranean?

24
NEEDED STEPS TO INTEGRATE BIOCLIMATIC ANALYSIS
INTO CLUE-ICES COUPLING (2)
CMCC IAFENT

• Regions harmonization - again,
  focusing on the euro-Mediterranean area?

25
CMCC IAFENT
TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT (1)
Rainfed soft wheat at national level (Morocco)
26
CMCC IAFENT
TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT (2)
27
CMCC IAFENT
Thanks!