The Future of Mobile Broadband

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The Future of Mobile Broadband
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Cellular SubscriptionsSubscriptions
Penetration per Region - End Q2, 2006E
Japan(excl. PHS) 93 M, 73
North America 240 M, 73
Global users 2464 M, 38
Asia Pacific851 M, 24
Latin America 275 M, 49
Western Europe423 M, 106
Central Eastern Europe 354 M, 74
Middle East and Africa 228 M, 20
As reported by operators
Source Estimates based on EMC, Wireless
Intelligence, MII TRAI
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Broadband Everywherethe starting point and the
potential
FTTH
WCDMA
Cable
204 million subscribers
xDSL
400 million subscribers
2005
CDMA2000
2009
WiMax
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Broadband data landscape...
Currently un-served market? PCs and Laptops
without broadband connection
Mobile industry
Residential broadband industry
Mobile broadband data
DSL
(Dial up)
Fibre
EDGE/WCDMA/ CDMA
CDMA
Many PCs yet to be connected different enabling
technologies
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Wireless Technologies Overview
WiFi Unlicensed short range radio Main usage as
a cable replacement by consumers and
enterprises Dont expect contineous coverage with
WiFi - Expensive and very hard to manage
End-user bit rate
WiMAX Licensed radio OFDM based radio in TDD
and/or FDD bands In higher frequecies than
currenty used allocations Due to higher
frequencies WiMAX will be more expensive than
HSPA for same coverage Still immature Products,
valuechain and technology options
802.11g,a,n
HSPA
802.16d,e
802.11b
3G
HSPA Licensed radio WCDMA based radio within
already available allocations Fully integreted
step in GSM evolution Supported by more than 2
Billion subscribers and 8 out of 10 largest
operators has already choosen WCDMA Mature
technology with unbeatable Economy of Scale
2G
LAN
WAN
MAN
Coverage
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WiMAX Forecast2005-2010
WIMAX Subscriber Forecasts
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ABI TOTAL Moderate
ABI TOTAL Aggressive
Pyramid Main total
Pyramid High total
Maravedis
Source Various analyst firms
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Global Cellular Active Subscriptions
Year End
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WCDMA Market OutlookNov 2006

• 123 WCDMA operators in commercial service in 55
  countries
• 407 WCDMA terminals launched in the market
• 70 operators deploying combined WCDMA-EDGE
  networks 46 launched
• Over 80 million WCDMA subscribers
• 130 HSDPA network deployments in 60 countries 74
  launched
• 81 HSDPA Devices launched, 22 suppliers

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Issues in Brazil

• Anatel issues public consultation for new 3G
  spectrum i) 10 MHz in 1.9 Ghz band previously
  assigned to fixed WLL mobile operators reject
  proposal ii) 40 MHz in 1.8 GHz band
• VIVO (largest operator of the region with 25
  million CDMA users) announces deployment of a GSM
  overlay for the end of 2006
• LNP being promoted by regulator for 2007
• Court suspended temporarily WiMax bidding in 3.5
  GHz and 10.5 GHz due to conflicts establishing
  the minimum bid
• Growing interest in UMTS/WCDMA in 850 MHz

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Latin America Concerns/Issues

• 3G spectrum In-band versus new frequency bands
  (1700/2100 MHz, 1900/2100 MHz)
• Low ARPUs (US 13 average) pressures operators
  to look for economies of scale and reduce costs
• Due to a high prepaid penetration (80), users
  always expect a high subsidy in handsets
• Voice still the killer app operators trying to
  launch VAS to postpaid users first
• Regulators involved in many issues Fixed-Mobile
  Convergence, Triple Play, WiMax, LNP,
  Interconnection fees, Quality Service plans

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Technology Evolution
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Technology EvolutionComplementary solutions

• Cellular technologies
• become more and
• more broadband
• Alternative wireless
• technologies become
• more and more mobile
• Several technologies for Broadband access
• HSPA (HSDPAHSUPA) and WiFi / WiMAX

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Multi-Service Ericsson VisionAlways Best
Connected and IMS Concepts
Service Layer
Service Layer
Messaging
B2Bcontrol
Otherenablers
Content Application
USM
Charging
IMS
Internet
GRX
TeS
TeS
Rede Core
PSTN
PLMN
IP Backbone
PacketDelivery Control
Rede de Acesso
IPRede de Acesso
IPRede de Acesso
WLAN
xDSL
2/3G/HSPA
WiMAX
Banda Larga
Common Network Core. Different access options.
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EDGE Evolution requirements

• Extend throughput further out in cell
• Increased coverage for a given bitrate, e.g. 128
  kbps Mobile-TV at cell border
• Increase peak bit rate gt 1Mbps
• To improve service experience when moving between
  2G and 3G
• Reduce latency (back to back pings)
• Latency today 150 ms
• Goal Reduce e2e latencyto 50-100 ms
• Reduce access time (first ping)
• Today 700 ms
• Goal Reduce e2e accesstime to 500 ms

Better Peak
Better Coverage
Throughput
Future
Radio Quality
Bad
Good
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EDGE Evolution has broad support

• Features are being standardized in 3GPP R7 to
  lift GSM/EDGE to a higher level
• Operator Value
• Increased end-user data rates
• Improved data capacity and spectrum efficiency
• Reduced latency
• Dependencies
• Terminal support is required

• Contributing companies in 3GPP
• Ericsson
• Nokia
• Siemens
• Motorola
• Panasonic
• Philips
• Intel
• Qualcomm

48 kbps GPRS
EDGE
180 kbps
600 kbps
1,2 Mbps
WCDMA R99
384 kbps
WCDMA Evolved (HSPA)
1,8 Mbps
3,6 Mbps
14 Mbps
28 Mbps
40 Mbps
3GSM
100 Mbps
3G-LTE
2005
2006
2009
2007
2008
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Evolving WCDMA/HSPA

• High Speed Downlink Packet Access in Rel 5
• Enhanced Uplink in Rel 6

HSPA

• High Speed Packet Access in Rel 7 e.g.
• Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO)
• Higher order modulation DL/UL
• MultiMedia Telephony (MMTel) enhancements
• Broadcast/Multicast enhancements

HSPA
LTE

• Long Term Evolution in Rel 8

3GPP Rel 99/4
Rel 5
Rel 6
Rel 7
Rel 8
WCDMA Evolved
WCDMA
HSPA Evolved
Enhanced Uplink
HSDPA
MBMS
MBMS
LTE
LTE
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HSPA Improving the WCDMA downlink/uplink (vs R99)
Higher bit rates up to 14 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates up to 5.8 Mbps uplink
2 - 5 times improved system capacity downlink
CAPACITY
1.5 - 2 times improved system capacity uplink
Quicker response time with interactive services
REDUCED DELAY
STANDARDIZED
Integral part of WCDMA (3GPP Rel.5/6)
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
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HSPA Evolution Improving the HSPA
downlink/uplink (targets vs R99)
Higher bit rates up to 40 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates up to 10 Mbps uplink
6 - 8 times improved system capacity DL
CAPACITY
2.5 - 3 times improved system capacity UL
2 times improved Broadcast/Multicast capacity
Quicker response time with interactive services
REDUCED DELAY
STANDARDIZED
Integral part of WCDMA (3GPP Rel 7)
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
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Long-Term Evolution Targets on a 20 MHz
bandwidth
Higher bit rates at least 100 Mbps downlink
SPEED
Higher bit rates at least 50 Mbps uplink
CAPACITY
7 - 9 times improved system capacity DL 3 - 4
times improved system capacity UL
Quicker response time with interactive services
REDUCED DELAY
STANDARDIZED
Part of 3GPP Rel.8
Network Coverage
Short time to market with existing sites
Focus on services from the packet-switched domain
!
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Summary HSPA Benefits vs R99
SPEED 100x
CAPACITY 5x
COST 1/5x
LATENCY 1/10x
The WCDMA/HSPA evolution has only just begun!
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Different types of Mobile Broadband segments
Laptop mobility seekers Broadband performance
everywhere, both indoor and outdoor
Fixed Wireless Broadband Very cost efficient -
ADSL/WiMAX alternative
Enhanced handset services New multimedia services
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Radio interface is not a limiting factor
Daily capacity per WCDMA site with HSDPA
1 carrier
4 carriers per sector
216 Gigabyte/Day
2.5 Mbps x 3 sectors x 3600 s x 16 h/8 54 000
Megabyte/Day
Fixed Mobile Broad Band subscription 1
GB/month 6 600 subscriber per site (in one RBS
cabinet)
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Mobile BroadbandCost efficient capacity for mass
market services
Network
Service
Financial

Site CAPEX UTRAN Transmission
140k Depreciation 6 years Site OPEX 100 of
annual CAPEX depreciation
ADSL equivalent 50kbit/s per subscriber 12 Busy
Hours/day
WCDMA site 3 carriers 3 sectors Average capacity
4Mbit/s per sector carrier
CAPEX depreciation /year OPEX
/year total delivered capacity
GB/year (300k / 10years) 100 x (300k /
10years)
((3carrier x 3sector x 4Mbit/s x
3600sec/hour x 10BH/day x 365days/year) /
8192Mbits/Gbyte)

Total Cost /GB
1/GB
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Mobile broadband terminalsA 3G network is no
longer just a mobile telephony network
Phones PDAs
PC cards
PC Integrated
3G Modems
81 HSPA terminal models available , Nov 2006
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Established end-user behavior
Key success factor for building a mass market
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HSPA in the laptopStrong industry commitment for
embedded 3G
Commercial 2006 Availability
3G Operators Vodafone, Cingular,
T-mobile Terminal and chipset vendors Ericsson,
Option, SierraWireless, Novatel PC
manufactures Dell, HP, FujitsuSiemens, Lenovo
(IBM), Sony
Its already a reality today
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HSDPA in Laptops - examples
Lenovo T60
Dell Latitude 620
Fujitsu Lifebook Q2010
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 2100 Quadband GSM
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 1900/850 Quadband GSM
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 2100 Quadband GSM
Dell Latitude 820
Acer 5650
Lenovo X60
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 2100 Quadband GSM
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 2100 Triband GSM
Cat 12 HSDPA Laptop UMTS 2100 Quadband GSM
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Strong growth in handset sales expected
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WCDMA Handsets Prices
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WCDMA Handset Prices Erosion
Price of low-end WCDMA handsets
-12 per quarter
Extrapolation based on Q403-Q106CAGR
Source Qualcomm
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Vodafone D2 are already leveraging WCDMA
cost-efficiency

• Vodafone at home
• PSTN telephony line
• FAX line
• Internet Access, up to 384kbit/s
• Wi-Fi access point
• delivered to the home or office over WCDMA

1000 voice minutes 20 / month 5 GB Internet
access 17 / month
Note in-door CPE makes capacity and cost similar
as for mobile case
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