From Understanding to Influencing: Yemen CSA Macro Social Analysis Conference

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From Understanding to Influencing Yemen
CSAMacro Social Analysis Conference

• Mesky Brhane
• Social Scientist
• MNSRE
• World Bank
• May 18, 2006

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Outline of the presentation

• Objectives
• Methods
• Findings
• Policy dialogue challenges and impact

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Motivation for the Yemen CSA

• Provide analytical input to the
• Yemens 5 Year Development Plan for Poverty
  Reduction (PRSP) 2006
• Banks Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) FY06

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Key Questions

• What are the trends in poverty and inequality in
  Yemen and what are the social factors that
  underlie this?
• What are the main social changes occurring in
  Yemeni society today? What are their causes?
• How are institutions evolving as a result of
  these changing conditions? How are these
  institutional changes inturn impinging on poverty
  and inequality?

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Research Methods

• Draw from existing development and academic
  research
• Interview key persons at national level (decision
  makers, traditional authority figures etc)
• Public expenditure analysis on poverty targeting
  of government services (by governorate and
  urban-rural dimensions)

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Research Methods

• In-depth qualitative research in areas
  representative of political/ecological diff.

Former North
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Major trends shaping Yemeni society (1)

• 1. Following unification of north and south
  Yemen, system of production shifting to a market
  economy

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State farms Collapsed
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Major trends shaping Yemeni society (2)

• 2. Role of the state is expanding (social
  services, roads etc.)
• And is reshaping formal and informal institutions
  

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Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions 1

• State certification of tribal leaders to serve as
  interlocutors
• Appointment of tribal leaders to high government
  office

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Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions 2

• Formalizing role of tribal leaders bypasses
  political and social system of checks and
  balances
• Reduces traditional systems of accountability
• Exacerbates local power conflict through
  competition among ruling families

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Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions 3

• Weakens traditional systems of conflict
  resolution but the formal legal system is
  ineffective
• Some MShayk act above the law (e.g. illegal
  seizures of property)

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Distribution of Assets - Land

• Increasing land concentration
• Private appropriation of communal land
• Limited access to endowment land

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Distribution of Assets - Water

• Privatization of communal land restricts access
  to water
• Community systems for water management weakened
• Deep well irrigation individualizes water
• Shayks largest consumers of water but charged
  with dispute resolution

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Impacts on Rural Livelihoods

• In the South Lost land when restituted to former
  owners
• In the North Shayks control cash cropping (qat),
  but live in towns

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Feminization of Subsistence Agriculture
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Migration of male youth children
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Impacts on Urban Livelihoods

• Urban areas offer the prospect of social mobility
  through cash income
• New professions Transport sector offers new
  employment opportunities
• Traditional Artisans declining opportunities due
  to competition of cheaper imports
• Shanty dwellers increasingly excluded
• New forms of social solidarity (e.g.,
  neighborhood associations)

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Risks to social inclusion

• Poverty, inequality and patronage threaten social
  cohesion
• Deepening poverty is stressing systems for social
  solidarity
• Traditional systems of accountability are
  weakened

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Opportunities for Social Cohesion

• Traditional mechanisms of solidarity and conflict
  resolution remain important
• Decentralization, if appropriately resourced,
  builds on local traditions and provides
  opportunity for more equity and voice

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CSA and the policy dialogue

• Analytical inputs to
• Development Policy Review
• Country Assistance Strategy (06-09)
• Yemen 2nd PRSP
• Project design (Rainfed Agr., Fisheries)
• DFIDs Country Assistance Plan

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Challenges in policy dialogue 1

• Diagnostic analysis of CSA does not lend itself
  to clear sectoral (technical) recommendations
• Political sensitivity (North-South, tribal
  shayks)
• Govt overwhelmed with multiple analyses

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Challenges in policy dialogue 2

• 4. Not based in country and could not be part of
  the ongoing PRSP process
• 5. Few new projects in the new CAS (only APLs
  from previous CAS, IDA reduction)

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Policy Impact of the CSA - 1

• Development Policy Review (PREM input for CAS and
  PRSP)
• Political economy analysis drew on CSA
• Highlighted growing inequality
• Recommended strengthening decentralization

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Policy Impact of the CSA 2

• CAS linkages
• CSA analysis identified as a monitoring tool for
  CAS 06-09
• CAS highlights role of communities in managing
  water resources
• Improving targeting for social safety net
• Project on decentralization/rural development
• Social Development project (SFD)

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Policy Impact of the CSA 3

• Proposed Analytical work building on the CSA
• Water PSIA (GTZ, Bank)
• Rural Land ESW (Bank)
• Justice for the poor (DFID, Bank)
• Social exclusion (DFID)