Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Hua-Lu Pan and Shrinivas Moorthi ... Admits fractured nature of our knowledge. Must transcend. Stochastic perturbations ' ...
Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Stephane Vannitsem, Richard Wobus, Bo Cui, Cecile Penland, Prashant Sardeshmukh, ... Spatiotemporal noise (Perez-Munuzuri et al. 2003) ...
Vorticity Increment Kinetic Energy Increment Without SP With SP MASE MASE Mean state without noise Mean state with noise Summary A stochastic parameterization scheme ...
Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Stephane Vannitsem, Richard Wobus, Bo Cui, Cecile Penland, Prashant Sardeshmukh, Weiyu Yang, James Purser and Mozheng Wei ...
DISCUSSION, NCEP 2005 PLAN AND OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES. NCEP ... Issue of pert inflation is challenging for large variation of obs. Computationally expensive ...
Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA. 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA ... R0, R(t) represent random but slight rotation in N-Dimensional space ...
DingChen Hou and Ken Campana EMC. David Michaud, Brent Gorden and Luke ... ETIM is better than AEMN. Hurricane Track Errors (All Basins: 08/20-09/30/2005) Cases ...
Jess Charba, Dan Collins, Dingchen Hou, John Janowiak, Ken ... region of light drizzle (below) ... members constantly produce drizzle (doesn't verify) ...
Correct both the 1st and 2nd moments of the ensemble. Goals ... ROC: 500 mb Height, Spring 2004. NH and SH: ROC with some weight improved for most lead time ...
unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation) fix cloud base (aviation) BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC) Hurricane track ...
INITIAL CONDITION RELATED ERRORS. Sample initial errors. Run ensemble of forecasts ... Poorly predictable large scale wave. Eastern Pacific Western US ...
CASE DEPENDENT ESTIMATE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. PROPAGATION OF ... Major impediment to improved services. Telecommunication gap. Serious bottleneck. 22 ' ...
David Michaud, Yuqiu Zhu, Brent Gordon NCO. Hua-Lu Pan, Steve ... and Palmer, 2004), Cellular Automaton Stochastic Backscatterused to determine the perterbation ...
East Fork of White River at Columbus, IN. other land models { Noah. STREAMFLOW ... day ... lower skill for 3-7 day lead, small and medium basins. Without ...
Can provide example for THORPEX multi-center ensemble work. 2 ... Using Internet to access data from CMC. 16 members 1 cycle per day ~ 1 Gb of data per cycle ...
Cost / loss ratio of decision situation ... Smart sub-setting & interrogation tools ... Allows to draw closer to data. Data sources. Near surface observations ...
The two systems have big different performances. 16. After CMC January Upgrade ... The two systems now appear to have a similar level of skill over the NH ...
STATISTICAL CONSISTENCY OF FORECASTS WITH OBSERVATIONS. Select a particular forecast ... Consistency defined over large sample need same for post-processing ...
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast. Products Spanning Climate and Weather. North American Ensemble ... UK Met Office,KMA, CMA, JMA. Expressed interest, no ...
Lacey Holland Products, web Jun Du ... Lacey Holland WSR support. Coupled Ocean ... Lacey Holland Richard Wobus. Yuejian Zhu. NCEP Central Operations NCO ...
1 hr./1 cpu. Current work: web display of NAEFS bias-corrected ensemble graphical products ... cost for interpolation: 22 minutes / 17 cpu for bi-cubic option ...
Adjust mask to tune initial perturbation. Fixed bugs for calculating re-scaling factors ... Tuning initial perturbation size is for reducing spread for short ...
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html ... Use same algorithms/codes at both MSC and NWS ... AND CORRESPONDING CLIMATE PERCENTILES (SHADES OF COLOR) ...