The Ecological Crisis

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The Ecological Crisis

• Social Ecology World Sustainability
• Michael R. Edelstein, Ph.D.

2
Paradigm Theory Robert Kuhn

• Cultural Groups Develop insider views of the
  world
• shared sets of assumptions,
• jargon,
• definitions,
• Methods
• Paradigms cause
• Insiders to see the world similarly and
• Outsiders to see the world differently

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PARADIGM CHANGE
Modernity J Curve
Paradigm Shift
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Raising the Alarm in the 1960s

• Murray Bookchin (aka Lewis Herbert) Our Synthetic
  Environment, 1962
• to suggest that pesticides, food additives,
  chemicalized agriculture, burgeoning urbanization
  and nuclear energy were harmful was regarded not
  merely as reactionary but as a national heresy
  given the sentiment characteristic of the
  country as a whole---the equating of progress
  with mindless growth and the technocratic ideal
  of progress above all.

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Raising the Alarm in the 1960s

• Rachel Carson Our Silent Spring 1962
• the controversy that exploded around Rachel
  Carsons book.highlights the extent to which
  American public opinion, orchestrated by
  corporate interests and government agencies,
  adhered to a grow or die economic mentality and
  a domineering attitude toward the natural world.
  Bookchin, X11

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Carson vs Modern Paradigm

• the question is whether any civilization
  can wage a relentless war on life without
  destroying itself and without losing the right to
  be called a civilization p99.The control of
  nature is a phrase conceived in arrogancewhen
  it was supposed that nature exists for the
  convenience of man. and a Neanderthal science,
  in turning its weapons against insects, has also
  turned them against the earth 297.

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Criticism of Carson

• Miss Rachel Carson's reference to the
  selfishness of insecticide manufacturers probably
  reflects her Communist sympathies, like a lot of
  our writers these days. We can live without birds
  and animals, but, as the current market slump
  shows, we cannot live without business. As for
  insects, isn't it just like a woman to be scared
  to death of a few little bugs! As long as we have
  the H-bomb everything will be O.K. P.S. She's
  probably a peace-nut too.

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Criticism of Carson

• The National Agricultural Chemicals Association
  spent over 250,000 on PR firm to malign book and
  author.
• President of the Montrose Chemical Corporation,
  DDT manufacturer Carson wrote not "as a
  scientist but rather as a fanatic defender of the
  cult of the balance of nature."
• Velsicol threatened to sue Houghton-Mifflin
  Audubon and New Yorker also threatened.

9
Rachel Carsons Meta Connections

• Biomagnification
• Ecological Integrity Damaged
• Human Health Impacts
• Human Caused Impacts
• Synthetic Society
• Paradigm Challenge

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Progression of Anomaly Recognition

• Synthetic Environment (Carson, 1962, Bookchin,
  1962)
• NEPA, CWA and CAA, FIFRA, TSCA (1970 and circa)
• CERCLA 1980--- PRP polluter pays
• Contaminated Communities (Edelstein, 1988,2004)
• Our Stolen Future (Theo Colborn et al, 1997)
• Living Downstream (Steingrabber, 1997)
• End of Nature (McKibben, 1999)
• IPCC
• Anthropocene (Crutzen and Stoermer, 2000)

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http//vimeo.com/55073825
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Systems Theory

• Von Bertalanffy
• General Systems Theory

Throughput
output
input
Through-put
SYSTEM CLOSED OR OPEN
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Limits to Growth 1972The Club of Rome

• The world first confronts the reality that
  resources limits constrain growth
• Club of Rome---an international organization of
  scholars, industrialists and scientists from 25
  nations http//www.clubofrome.org/ ---
• funded Dennis and Donella Meadows to run a
  computer model projecting conditions in 2100 from
  known data from 1900-1970.

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The World ModelJay Forrester MIT

• Model complex systems and project outcomes given
  specified assumptions
• Overcome humans limited ability to handle
  complexity and large number of variables.
• Example of simple linear extrapolation
• Herman Kahn The Year 2000 (Hudson Institute)
  failed to anticipate energy, pollution or
  population problems. Assumed economic and
  technological growth would handle all problems.

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Modeling Complex Systems Cont.

• Complex systems have multiple feedback loops
• Short run, linear decision making fails to
  anticipate unexpected results ex. Iron rule of
  highways.
• Each variable affects all
• Synergistic interactions 2 2 5 ex. Drug
  interactions
• Time Delay ex. Ozone hole, climate change

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Buckminister FullerMake the world work, for
100 of humanity, in the shortest possible time,
through spontaneous cooperation, without
ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone.

• Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth 1963
• Dymaxion and Geodesic Dome
• http//www.hearingvoices.com/webwork/bucky/fuller3
  .htmlbotleft

http//www.bfi.org/
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Forrester Assumed that Social Systems

• Engage in counterintuitive behavior
• Welfare of system contradicted by subsystems with
  different goals
• The actions of one subsystem affect all
• Short term improvements conflict with long term
  perspectives because invariably lead to
  degradation
• Insensitive to policy changes intended to change
  the systems behavior.

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System Dynamic Computer Modeling

• Assume key variables, trends and weighting of
  factors plus interactive factors.
• Use mathematical equations to simulate multiple
  interactions and non-linear relations among
  variables.
• Clearly specify assumptions. Can change as new
  information comes to light.
• Test different scenarios.
• Not predicting the future. Project current trends
  to see consequences and allow for correction.

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5 Key Variables Dynamically Interacted

• Population
• Pollution
• Natural Resources
• Industrial Output per capita
• Food per capita

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Limitations

• Examples
• Omitted many types of pollution and focused only
  on long lived types.
• Resources lumped all together.
• Assume resources last 250 years at 1970 use rates.

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6 Major Assumptions

• Finite stock of exploitable, non-renewable
  resources
• Finite amount of land to grow food
• Finite capacity of environment to absorb
  pollution
• Technological change is incremental assuming
  money and environmental technology to allow.
• Finite yield of food from any unit of arable land
• 6..

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Thomas Malthus

• 1798 Malthus published On Population.
• Imbalance between population and resources is
  inevitable because
• Food increases arithmetically
• Population increases geometrically
• God created a world in which the power of the
  eater to reproduce himself is of a superior order
  than that of the earth to produce food because
  fear of starvation stimulates men to be
  industrious.

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Assumptions Continued

• 6. Exponential growth of population, pollution
  and industrial output as long as resources and
  their interaction permit.
• Ex. World Population is increasing at 1.7 -1.8.
• Population increased more than 6x in 200 years.
• http//www.poodwaddle.com/Stats/

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World Population (billions)
6.5 billion in 2005
4 billion in 1975
2 billion in 1920
1 billion in 1800
Source UN Population Division 2004 Lee, 2003
Population Reference Bureau
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Exponential Growth

• When a quantity changes exponentially, its value
  will double (or halve) in regular time intervals.
• The time it takes to double depends on the annual
  percent of growth. You calculate doubling time by
  dividing this annual growth rate into 70.
• Doubling time in years 70/growth rate or
  70/1.839 years.

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World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars)
52 trillion in 2003
10 trillion in 1967
1 trillion in 1900
Source DeLong 1998
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Overshoot Crash
S curve
crash
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Phantom Capacity Overshoot

• Catton carrying capacity illusions x reality

cc
CC
Unlimited CC
load
load
load
Prosthetic/ Tech Fix
realism
Unrealisms Phantom or Ghost Capacity
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Overall Findings of Limits to Growth

• If population and industrial growth continue to J
  curve, sometime after 2000, nonrenewable
  resources will be depleted and a population crash
  will follow de to scarcity of food and medicine.
• If assume technological advance doubles all
  resource reserves and you allow 75 recycling,
  there will be a sharp increase in pollution
  increasing death rates and causing a population
  crash.

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Improving Standard of Living with Population
Increase

• World averages 2 children per family
• World industrial output/capita stabilizes at 1975
  levels
• Reduce resource consumption and pollution to ¼ of
  1970 levels
• Shift consumption from material goods to services
• Direct capital toward food production, soil
  enrichment and erosion control
• Industrial capacity is built to last much longer.

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Criticisms of Limits to Growth

• Not Assume technology and ingenuity increases to
  solve all problems
• Not assume people can adapt to all conditions
• Not objective computer replaces humans
• Failure assured given exponential growth and
  finite resources
• Fatalistic---lessen hope, self fulfilling
  prophesy
• Lumps unique regions of the globe together
• See http//www.clubofrome.org/archive/publications
  /van_Dieren_Doors_of_Perceptions.pdf

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Mankind at the Turning PointMessarovic and
Pestel 1974

• To address criticism that world regions differ
• 2nd study divided world into ten regions.
• Despite assuming technological optimism, more
  pessimistic.
• Unless economy and growth redistributed from rich
  to poor nations,
• Resources and food will collapse by 2050 in poor
  nations causing a population crash
• Interdependency means regional collapse will pull
  all down. Ex. Asian Flu 1998

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Neo-Malthusian view

• Beyond population, increased resource use is
  problem
• Recognize World System---interconnected
• Differences between poor and rich countries
• West plus Japan and Russia --- ¼ population and
  80 resource use
• US 5 world population, 1/3 resource use and 1/3
  pollution

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Global 2000 July 1980

• May 1977, Pres.Carter ordered study world
  population and natural resources thru 2000
• Done by US CEQ and DOS
• US govt. no tradition of long term planning
• Trend projection using long term global data and
  models employed by federal agencies.

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Global 2000 Conservative Bias

• Used existing long term data and models of US
  government
• Data on population, GNP, resources and
  environment taken sequentially 1977-1979
• Thus, not interact factors
• Allocate resources repetitiously
• Assume continued growth of earths goods and
  services without maintenance or higher costs

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Assumptions of Global 2000

• Continuation of public policy
• Continuation of rapid technological development
  without resistance
• (ex. Continually increasing crop yields)
• Assume that shortages of resources cause rising
  prices which will drop demand
• International trade not disturbed by war,
  politics or economics, etc.

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Sample Findings Global 2000

• As population increases, the gap between the rich
  and poor will widen
• Food production increase 90 1970-2000 assuming
  constant climate and environment
• Due to energy intensive farming not new land
• Fertilizer, pesticide, machines, irrigation
• Only a 15 per capita increase
• Costs of food double
• Increase food importation
• Bulk of food go to rich
• of malnourished triple to 1.3 billion

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Sample Findings Global 2000 2Food Cont.

• 1 hectare of arable land (2.5 acres) support 1970
  ---2.6 people
• 2000 ---4 people LDC 5.5 people
• Soil loses yearly size of Maine by 2000 lose 1/3
  worlds arable land
• Increased use of grain for alcohol fuels
• Contradictionincrease production from Green
  Revolution ignores degradation from soil loss

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Sample Findings Global 2000 3Soil Destruction
is constraint to food growth

• Higher yields at cost of soil integrity
• organic humusnutrients, water absorption
• inorganic clay and salts---infertile
• rock pieces, bedrock
• Desertification barren land ex. Sahel
• 3x 1970-2000
• overgrazing, farming on marginal lands
• Drought cycles

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Sample Findings Global 2000 4Threats to
Arability

• Waterlogging, salinization, alkalinization
• Asia, S. America, California
• collapse of Mesopotamia and Upper Nile
• Deforestration---increased flood and erosion
• Erosion---corn and marginal land farming
• Loss of organic matter and largest CO2 sink
• Development---urbanization of river valleys,
  industrialization, sprawl

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Sample Findings Global 2000 5Other factors
affecting food

• Monocultures
• Loss of diversity
• Use of hybrids and designer crops
• Fuel subsidies to agriculture
• Pollution from pesticides, fertilizers, etc.
• Net effect shift farming from renewable to
  non-renewable and unsustainable basis!!!!

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Sample Findings Global 2000 6Other Conclusions

• Fisheries overexploited
• Loss of forests ½ California/year
• Particularly in LDCs (40 by 2000), Trop RF
• Severe Water shortages
• doubling with population, irrigation
• Mineral resources no reserves, more , inequity
• Global Climate Change by 2050
• Loss of 20 of all species as habitats vanish
• Toxics cause health problems
• Oil reach maximum capacity despite higher prices

45
Sample Findings Global 2000 7The case of Fuel
Wood

• ¼ use wood for fuel Poor mans oil
• By 2000, need exceed supply by 25
• In Sahel (Sahara border) fuel wood gathering full
  time---20-30 family income
• No trees left 50-100 k around cities
• Deforestation, erosion, desertification, higher
  costs, less fuel, and substitution of dung and
  crop residues.

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Refutations of Global 2000A Resourceful Earth

• Julian Simon Heritage Foundation
• Herman Kahn Hudson Foundation
• The year 2000 will be less crowded (with more
  people), less polluted, more stable ecologically,
  less vulnerable to resource supply disruption.
  People will be richer and have more food.

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Refutations of Global 2000Assumptions made by
Simon and Kahn

• No water shortages
• Spread of cheap nuclear power
• Air water pollution overblown problem
• US farmland not being urbanized signif.
• More than enough farmland
• No rapid species loss
• More food to feed the hungry
• Birth rate down while life expectancy is up

48
Refutation of Global 2000Simon and Kahns Magic

• Resource problems become opportunities inviting
  entrepreneurs to solve them with ingenuity
• Wood crisis-coal, coal crisis-oil, whale oil-oil
• They spur increases in knowledge which spurs
  growth
• Solutions to problems leave us better off
• Ex. Rail to haul coal
• Need stimulus for discovery

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Refutations of Global 2000

• Simon Kahn
• People are not just the cause of problems but
  with training, the means to solve these problems
  WE NEED MORE AND BIGGER PROBLEMS
• Steven Bardwell The World Needs 10 Billion
  People Fusion Sept. 1981
• Qualitative innovations in technology must be
  planned on but cannot be planned for
• fusion energy allows more people and consumption

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Refutation of Global 2000 Bardwell

• Convert J curve of productivity to linear curve
  because
• Higher population leads to increased labor
  division, ingenuity, ideas, increased
  productivity
• Complex technologies can support more people
• More people are required for complex technologies

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Our Common Future World Commission on
Environment and Development

• Brundtland Commission) --- 1984-1987
• Cant separate economic development from
  environmental issues
• Inequality is main env. devel. Problem
• Problem of the rich over consumption
• Problem of the poor natural disaster over time
• exploit resources for export, debt, dumb aid,
  militarization, increase population, unemployment
  and cities, loss farmers, loss soil, drought and
  flood

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Our Common Future 2

• SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
• Meeting the needs of the present without
  compromising future generations.
• Need for lifestyles within the planets
  ecological means population size and growth in
  harmony with environment.

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Ecological FootprintSourcehttp//www.footprintne
twork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/
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Ecological Footprint U.S.Global Footprint
Networkhttp//www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.p
hp/GFN/page/trends/us/
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U.S. 2005 FootprintGlobal Footprint
Networkhttp//www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.p
hp/GFN/page/trends/us/
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NEOMALTHUSIAN INEQUITY

• We live in a world where
• 1/5 of people and 1/3 of children are hungry
• 1/5 of people lack clean water
• 1/5 of people lack adequate housing
• 1/3 of people lack health care and fuel
• ½ of people lack sanitation
• ¼ of adults cannot read and write

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U.S., Russia, China and India
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U.S., Russia, China and India
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U.S., Russia, China and India
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Sierra Leone, Rwanda and U.S.
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Source http//www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.p
hp/GFN/page/ecological_debtors_and_creditors/
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Sierra Leone, Rwanda and U.S.
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UN Conferences

• 1972 Stockholm conference on the environment,
  consensus on problems of development.
• 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and
  Development---Rio
• Agenda 21
• Emergence of Civil Society and Governmental Paths
  to Sustainability
• 2002 World Summit on Sustainable
  Development---Johannesburg

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RIO20 Brazil June 2012 The World We Want

• Shift to Social and Economic Sustainability
• Equity
• Green Economy
• Renewable energy
• Hunger (Millennium Ecosystem Goals
• Culture (i.e., First Nations)
• Happiness indicators
• Bien Vivier Right of Nature to Life
• Recognize next generations as key stakeholders

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Lovins Soft Energy Paths

• Renewable energy flows (energy income)
• Diverse (many small contributors)
• Flexible and low tech
• Resilient/ decentralized
• Match in scale and geographic distribution to end
  use needs
• Match in environmental quality to end use needs

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Web Sources

• The (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• http//www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Products.Sy
  nthesis.aspx
• Koffi Annan We The Peoples The Role of United
  Nations in the 21st Century.
• Chapter 4 Sustaining Our Future.
• http//www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/ch4.pdf
• Al Gore. An Inconvenient Truth.
  http//www.climatecrisis.net/