Hydrological%20and%20Sediment%20yield%20Modeling%20in%20the%20Northern%20Highlands%20of%20Ethiopia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Hydrological%20and%20Sediment%20yield%20Modeling%20in%20the%20Northern%20Highlands%20of%20Ethiopia

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Hydrological Modeling and Impact of Climate changes in the Caribbean Islands of Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Jamaica Shimelis G Setegn, Ph.D. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Hydrological%20and%20Sediment%20yield%20Modeling%20in%20the%20Northern%20Highlands%20of%20Ethiopia


1
Hydrological Modeling and Impact of Climate
changes in the Caribbean Islands of Dominican
Republic, Puerto Rico and Jamaica
Shimelis G Setegn, Ph.D. Postdoctoral Research
Scientist Florida International University, Dep.
of Earth and Environment
19 October 2011, Mexico City, Mexico
Project Personnel's Assefa Melesse (PI) Francisco
Nunez Dale Webber Jorge Ortiz Felipe Vicioso
2
The presentation consists of
  • CCS - Core Science Objectives
  • Study area
  • Modeling tools
  • Modeling Results
  • Climate change projections
  • Impact of climate change on water resources

3
Caribbean Coastal Scenarios Core Science
Objectives
  • Determine spatial and temporal variability in
    climate across the region.
  • Determine geographic demographic
    characteristics of catchments
  • topography, land cover, geology, soil, land
    management techniques, population, roads and
    infrastructure, urban systems, etc.
  • Consider present future trends in the nature
    distribution of dynamic characteristics
  • e.g. land cover, management techniques,
    population, infrastructure, urban systems.

4
Caribbean Coastal ScenariosCore Science
Objectives (cont.)
  • Simulate seasonal and inter-annual fluxes of
    fresh water, sediments, and dissolved loads to
    coastal zones as a function of climate and
    catchment characteristics.

Montego Bay
5
STUDY AREA
  • Caribbean Costal Regions
  • Puerto Rico
  • Manate and Plata Basins
  • Dominican Republic
  • Haina and Yuna watersheds
  • Jamaica
  • Great River and Re Cobre

6
Islands of interest
7
  • Watershed Modeling

8
Overview of Watershed modelling
  • Many hydrological models are developed to
    describe the hydrology, erosion and sedimentation
    processes.
  • They describe the physical processes controlling
    the transformation of precipitation to runoff and
    detachment and transport of sediments.

9
  • Watershed models are used to implement
    alternative management strategies in the areas of
  • water resources allocation
  • flood control
  • impact of land use change
  • impact of climate change
  • environmental pollution control

10
SWAT (Soil water Assessment Tool)
  • SWAT is a river basin scale developed to predict
    the impact of land management practices on water,
    sediment and agricultural chemical yields
  • It is a public domain model actively supported by
    the USDA Agricultural Research Service at the
    Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory in
    Temple, Texas, USA.
  • The SWAT system (ArcSWAT), embedded within
    geographic information system (GIS),
  • can integrate various spatial environmental data,
    including soil, land cover, climate, and
    topographic features.

11
SWAT cont.
  • The model is physically based
  • i.e., it requires specific information
  • It is computationally efficient
  • Simulation of very large basins
  • SWAT enables to study long-term impacts

12
Phases of hydrologic cycle simulated by SWAT
Courtesy SWAT Manual
13
Model Input
  • GIS input files needed for the SWAT model include
  • the digital elevation model (DEM),
  • land cover, and
  • soil layers
  • The DEM can be utilized by ArcSWAT to delineate
    basin and subbasin boundaries, calculate
    subbasin average slopes and delineate the stream
    network.
  • The land use, soil and Slope layers are used to
    creat and define Hydrological response units
    (HRUs).

14
Model Input Cont.
  • Metrological Data
  • The weather variables for driving the
    hydrological balance are
  • precipitation,
  • air temperature,
  • solar radiation,
  • wind speed and
  • relative humidity.

15
Model Input Cont.
  • Hydrological data
  • River Discharge and Suspended sediment load
  • Land Management
  • Management input files include planting, harvest,
    tillage operations, and pesticide and fertilizer
    application.

16
  • Model Calibration and Evaluation
  • The ability of a watershed model is evaluated
    through sensitivity analysis, model calibration,
    and model validation.
  • For model evaluation we used the goodness of
    measures such as NSE, R2,

17
MODELING RESULTS
18
Puerto Rico, Rio Manati
19
Time serious graph for calibration period Rio
Manati
20
Annual average water balance of the Rio De
Manati watershed
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 1620
Surface runoff 86
Lateral soil flow 386
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 3
Revap (shallow aquifer gt soil/plants) 102
Deep aquifer recharge 5
Total aquifer recharge 94
Total water yield 474
Percolation out of soil 89
Actual evapotranspiration 1067
Potential evapotranspiration 1838
21
Average Monthly Basin Values of Manati watershed
MONTHS RAIN, (mm) SURF Q, (mm) LAT Q Water Yield, (mm) ET, (mm) PET, (mm)
1 108.76 4.17 32.9 38.29 67.41 101.33
2 88.83 5.01 26.28 32.13 76.37 121.58
3 101.83 4.81 22.5 27.64 118.21 184.68
4 151.33 7.36 23.39 30.89 116.1 172.32
5 118.01 3.19 26.49 29.68 118.83 188.35
6 61.9 0.93 19.67 20.61 98.55 203.88
7 76.59 0.97 14.98 15.94 76.01 204.73
8 145.36 2.99 20.23 23.2 73.26 172.56
9 187.47 7.18 32.94 40.08 87.54 148.13
10 272.15 29.28 56.65 85.78 87.8 129.2
11 178.87 13.44 61.68 75 79.9 117.38
12 131.44 6.57 48.81 55.29 69.08 97.17
22
Puerto Rico Plata
Area ()
0.003
4.141
28.387
1.295
0.225
0.612
51.078
0.107
13.015
0.011
1.127
Land use Plata Watershed, PR
23
Time serious graph for calibration period Rio
Plata
24
Dominican Republic - Rio Haina
Area
1.279
46.922
17.800
10.244
0.027
4.916
0.012
0.296
17.568
0.936
Land use Haina Watershed, DR
25
Time serious graph for calibration period Haina
Watershed
26
Annual average water balance of the Haina
watershed
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 2101
Surface runoff 927,63
Lateral soil flow 21
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 215
Revap (shallow aquifer gt soil/plants) 17
Deep aquifer recharge 12.33
Total aquifer recharge 246.64
Total water yield 1161.63
Percolation out of soil 250.31
Actual evapotranspiration 890.6
Potential evapotranspiration 1702
27
Jamaica, Great River Basin
28
Time series of observed and simulated monthly
flow for calibration (top) and validation
(bottom) period at Lethe station of Great River
29
Jamaica, Rio Cobre Watershed
30
The time-series comparison between measured and
simulated monthly flow at Rio Cobre Watershed
31
Annual average water balance of the Rio Cobre
watershed (1997-2008).
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 1953.0
Surface runoff 102.8
Lateral soil flow 427.7
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 368.8
Revap (shallow aquifer gt soil/plants) 9.0
Deep aquifer recharge 19.9
Total aquifer recharge 397.6
Total water yield 899.0
Percolation out of soil 393.5
Actual evapotranspiration 1028.3
Potential evapotranspiration 1579.8
32
Monthly mean and seasonal water balance
components for the Rio Cobre watershed
Seasons/months Rainfall, mm Surface runoff, mm Lateral flow, mm Water Yield, mm AET, mm PET, mm
Average (1997-2008) 154.44 21.68 38.10 79.73 71.50 180.42
Dry (Jan-Mar) 57.72 4.20 11.67 28.24 68.12 180.33
Wet (Aug-Oct) 267.09 52.20 72.15 151.99 77.49 179.79
33
Spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration
in the Rio Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
34
Spatial distribution of water yield in the Rio
Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
35
Climate Change
30 August 2010, Gran Melia, Puerto Rico, photo by
Shimelis S
36
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources
Variability
  • GCMs are numerical coupled models that represent
    various earth systems including the atmosphere,
    oceans, land surface and sea-ice and offer
    considerable potential for the study of climate
    change and variability.
  • Climate change scenarios
  • Scenarios are images of the future, or
    alternative futures. They are neither predictions
    nor forecasts.
  • The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
    are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2,
    B1 and B2) that explore alternative development
    pathways, covering a wide range of demographic,
    economic and technological driving forces and
    resulting GHG emissions.

37

Center Model Atmospheric resolution (approx)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA, AOM 4x3 4? x 3?
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA, USA GISS_ModelE-H 4 ? x 5?
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United Kingdom Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1) 1.25? x 1.875?
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway (BCCR) Bergen Climate Model (BCM2.0) 2.8?2.8?
Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canada (CCCMA) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) 3.75? 3.7?
Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques France(CNRM) CNRM-CM3 2.8? 2.8?
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Australia (CSIRO) CSIRO Mark 3.0 1.9? 1.9?
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Australia (CSIRO) CSIRO Mark 3.5 1.9? 1.9?
Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology Germany (MPI-M) ECHAM5/MPI-OM 1.9? 1.9?
Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), (MIUB) ECHO-G 3.75? 3.7? 
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA ( GFDL) CM2.0 - AOGCM 2.5? 2.0? 
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA (GFDL) CM2.1 - AOGCM 2.5? 2.0?  
Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia (INM) INMCM3.0 5.0? 4.0? 
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France (IPSL) IPSL-CM4 3.75? 2.5?  
Meteorological Research Institute Japan (MRI) MRI-CGCM2.3.2 2.8? 2.8? 
National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA (NCAR)  Parallel Climate Model (PCM) 2.8? 2.8? 
National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA(NCAR)   Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3) 1.4? 1.4? 
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United Kingdom - UK Met. Office UK (UKMO) HadCM3 3.75? 2.5?
38
Trends in Climate Change - Temperature
39
Trends in Climate Change - Rainfall
40
Projected Seasonal changes in Rainfall
41
Changes in stream flow due to changes in
precipitation and air temperature for the period
2046-2065 and 2080-2100
42
Changes in potential and actual
evapotranspiration (PET and AET) for the
2046-2065
43
Annual changes in potential and actual
evapotranspiration (PET and AET) for the
2080-2100
44
Annual changes in soil water storage for
2046-2065 and 2080-2100 period
45
Changes in surface and ground water for 2046-2065
and 2080-2100 periods
46
Changes in surface and ground water for 2046-2065
and 2080-2100 periods
47
Uncertainties in GCM model outputs
48
Thank You!
30 August 2010, Puerto Rico
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