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Climate Trends in the Philippines

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... (DURIAN) 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 Land :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 ST. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Trends in the Philippines


1
Climate Trends in the Philippines
²
Presented by Thelma A. Cinco
2
PAGASA-DOST
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration. The
countrys national meteorological and
hydrological services (NMHS) provider
MISSION To provide weather, flood, climate
and astronomical products and services to promote
the peoples safety and well-being contribute
to national development
Presidential Decree No. 78 December 1972 as
amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149 August
1977
The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member
of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a
specialized body of the United Nations.
3
PAGASA-DOSTs Observation Facilities Equipment
  • 58 Synoptic stations
  • 23 Agromet stations
  • 80 Climat/Rain stations
  • AWS 10M wind mast
  • 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI)
  • ARG
  • 381 total
  • 6 Upper air stations
  • 10 Doppler radars
  • (2 under construction)
  • 2 Marine buoys
  • 5 Telemetered major river basins
  • 3 Satellite receivers

4
Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation
  • Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands
  • 70 of cities and municipalities are coastal
    areas
  • Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

5
Philippines has not been spared of the
weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons
and very intense rainfall
ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006
TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006
Landslide Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV
Princess of the Stars)
TY Milenyo, Sept 2006
6
How is global warming manifested in the
Philippines?
7
Philippines mean temperature
Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the
Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000
normal values
An increase of 0.65C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
8
Maximum Minimum Temperature
An increase of 0.36C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared
with the maximum temperature
An increase of 1.0C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
9
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the
Philippines Period (1951 2008)
In most parts of the country, increases in the
frequency of hot days and warm nights are
Statically Significant
Trend in the frequency of days with maximum
temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th
percentile (Hot days).
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature
above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm
nights)
10
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the
Philippines Period (1951 2008)
In most parts of the country, Significant
decreases in the frequency of Cool days and Cold
nights
Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature
below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile Cool Days
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature
below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
Cold nights
11
Tropical Cyclones Trends
12
Classification of Tropical Cyclones
  1. Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is
    from 45 to 63 kph
  2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from
    64 to 118 kph
  3. Typhoon maximum sustained winds is greater than
    118 kph.

13
Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1x1 (1948-2010)
Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North
Pacific Period (1948-2010)
  • s.
  • s.

Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical
cyclones EVERY YEAR
  • Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the
    Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period
    1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70 entered or
    formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly
    (PAR) (Data used JMA Data set).

14
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the
Philippines Period 1948-2010
15
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per
decade in the PAR Period 1951-2010
Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical
Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
16
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per
decade in the Philippines
Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical
Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
17
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the
Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150
kph and above
18
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and
crossing the Philippines Period 1948-2010
19
Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD1970-2010 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD1970-2010 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD1970-2010
TC NAME Date of Occurrence Total damage in Billion PhP
TY_PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 27.296722
TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000
TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 23, 2008 13.500000
TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 21, 2010 11.500000
TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 27, 2009 10.952198
TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties gt 300 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties gt 300 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties gt 300
TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties
TS Uring Nov 1-6, 1991 5101
TS Sendong (Washi) Dec 15-17, 2011 1268
TY Nitang Aug 31 Sep 4, 1984 1029
TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995
TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991
TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936
Increasing cost of Damage
The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were
characterized by flashfloods.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAME Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm) Date of Occurrence
TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001
TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998
TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967
TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974
TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991
TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAME Maximum Wind (kph) Date of Occurrence
TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998
TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981
TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970
TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987
20
Observed24-hour rainfall 455mm
Flooding in Metro Manila Tropical Storm
KetsanaONDOY Sept. 24 - 27, 2009
21
Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the
Philippines Period (1951 2008)
  • In most parts of the country, the intensity of
    rainfall is increasing and becoming more frequent

22
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored
years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years
are NON_ENSO years
23
Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution
La Niña
El Niño
Neutral
Wetter in the western part
Wetter in the eastern part
24
Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type
25
Climate Trends in Manila
26
Manila
An increase of 2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)
27
Manila
28
Manila
29
Manila
30
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31
Thank You! Tracking the skyhelping the country
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