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Global Climate Change: Recent Trends and Future Projections

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University Author: IITAP Last modified by: Gene Takle Created Date – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Climate Change: Recent Trends and Future Projections


1
Global Climate Change Recent Trends and Future
Projections
  • Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
  • Professor of Atmospheric Science
  • Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
  • Department of Agronomy
  • Faculty Director, University Honors Program
  • Iowa State University
  • Ames, Iowa 50011
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Chemical Engineering 302 Iowa State University 11
October 2007
2
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
3
Outline
  • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
  • Radiative forcing
  • Simulations of global climate and future climate
    change
  • Four components for addressing climate change
  • Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
    adaptation strategy

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
4
(No Transcript)
5
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6
IPCC Third Assessment Report
7
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2007 380 ppm
8
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 550 ppm
9
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
10
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
?
11
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
12
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
13
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
14
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
15
(No Transcript)
16
Ts
e
Planet Te(K) Ts(K) Earth 256
288 Venus 227 732 Mars 217 223
17
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
18
El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
19
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
20
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
21
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
22
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
23
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
24
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
25
http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
nce/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex1191902400en
c94928ddecd5ba57ei5070emceta3
26
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
27
Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century 0.5 to
1.0 m
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
28
(No Transcript)
29
(No Transcript)
30
Antarctica
Greenland
Ice Volume
0
Warm
Cold
Climate
31
(No Transcript)
32
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
33
An exhibition of old and new photographs at the
Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual
disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers.?The
Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the
foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais
circa 1906 and 2003?(Pictures Gesellschaft fur
okologische Forschung, Munich)
34
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
35
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
36
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
37
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
38
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural
39
Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
40
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
41
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
42
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
43
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
44
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
45
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
46
(No Transcript)
47
Tin and Seager
48
Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate
Change
  • Mitigation policies 2050-2100
  • Example reduction in GHG emissions
  • Adaptation (long-term) 2015-2050
  • Example Developing Iowas competitive economic
    advantage
  • Adaptation (short-term) 2008-2015
  • Example redefining climate normals
    when needed and scientifically justified
  • Scenario planning for Iowas Katrina 2007-2100
  • Example Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
    combination of both drought and wildfire

EST personal view
49
Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
If a meteorological variable began departing from
its long-term background near or after 1970 it
may be related to the radiation imbalance and
thereby has a better chance than not of
continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
50
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest
(My tentative assessment)
  • Longer frost-free period (high)
  • Higher average winter temperatures (high)
  • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
  • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
  • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
    winter (high)
  • More (10) precipitation (medium)
  • More variability of summer precipitation (high)
  • More intense rain events and hence more runoff
    (high)
  • Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
  • Longer periods without rain (medium)
  • Higher absolute humidity (high)
  • Stronger storm systems (medium)
  • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but
model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
51
Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest
  • Longer growing season
  • Warmer spring soil temperatures
  • Modest or no increase in summer daily maximum
    temperatures
  • Increase in nighttime temperatures
  • Reduced risk of late frost in spring or early
    frost in fall
  • More freeze-thaw cycles that will recharge
    soil moisture in winter

52
Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest
  • More precipitation
  • More soil moisture
  • Higher dew-point temperatures reduces moisture
    stress
  • Higher CO2 increased carbon uptake by crops
  • Higher CO2 increases the water-use
    efficiency of crops

53
Reasons Crop Yields Might Decrease in the Midwest
  • More precipitation extremes
  • More rain events bring heavy rain
  • More droughts
  • More floods
  • More over-wintering pests
  • More pathogens due to higher humidity
  • More vigorous weed growth

54
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
55
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
56
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
57
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
58
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
59
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
60
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
61
Summary
  • Climate change of the past 35 years is not
    consistent with natural variations over the last
    400,000 years
  • Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due
    to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed
    over half of the warming of the last 35 years
  • Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
    will have little effect on global warming until
    the latter half of the 21st century
  • Adaptation strategies should be developed
    for the next 50 years
  • Recent trends and model projections
    should be used to develop adaptation
    strategies for the next 10 years

EST personal view
62
For More Information
  • For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
    you have seen in this presentation, see my online
    Global Change course
  • http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
  • Contact me directly
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu
  • Current research on regional climate and climate
    change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
    under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
  • http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
  • For this and other climate change presentations
    see my personal website
  • http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

Or just Google Eugene Takle
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