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MILITARY STRATEGIC ESTIMATE

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... ATTACK MAZARI Critical Capability Matrix C of G Sustainability of Force Projection INTERDICTION by F5E & F16 AIR STRIKE PILOT MUNITION POL AIRFIELD CAP ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: MILITARY STRATEGIC ESTIMATE


1
MILITARY STRATEGIC ESTIMATE
  • By
  • STRATEGIC WORKING GROUP 1

2
SYNDICATE MEMBERS
LEADER
3
AIM
  • To propose the MSE in countering LANUNLAND threat

4
SCOPE
  • BACKGROUND
  • THE PROBLEM
  • AIM OF THE ESTIMATE
  • FACTORS
  • PLANNING GUIDANCE

5
BACKGROUND
  • LANUNLAND and MAZARI are situated in Southeast
    Asia and separated with each other by the South
    China Sea
  • MAZARI is much closer to AMANLAND
  • MAZARI also have special defence ties with
    AMANLAND
  • AMANLAND is obligated to provide assistance
    through MoU

6
BACKGROUND... cont
  • Strained due to the LANUNLAND claims over MAZARI
    as part of their territory
  • The conflict between both countries rooted since
    1970
  • This conflict has also deteriorated relations
    between AMANLAND and LANUNLAND
  • It is considered highly probable that in order
    to deter any AMANLAND forces assisting MAZARI,
    LANUNLAND Military Forces may threaten AMANLAND
    directly by threat of incursions or indirectly by
    interfering trade routes

7
THE PROBLEM
  • AO covers the international SLOCs and
    international air routes
  • LANUNLAND may manage to gain international
    support to legitimate its claims
  • ANAMBAS and NATUNA groups of islands is in the
    AO, hence INDOLAND may get involved
  • Members of Five Power Defence Arrangement may get
    involved

8
AI
AO
9
AIM OF THE ESTIMATE
  • To provide strategic assessment and offer
    military guidance to deal with the conflict

10
FACTORS
  • National Objectives. To protect MAZARI
    sovereignty from the LANUNLAND aggressions
  • National Interests
  • To respect the sovereignty of any independent
    states
  • To protect AMANLAND sovereignty and its maritime
    interests
  • To solved the dispute through diplomatic means
  • To have progressive, stable, and prosperous
    neighbours

11
FACTORS ....Cont
  • Strategy
  • To deter LANUNLAND
  • To gain regionally and internationally political
    support and to reject LANUNLAND claims
  • To prepare MAZARI to absorb initial onslaught by
    LANUNLAND forces
  • To conduct joint operation to defend MAZARI and
    expel LANUNLAND
  • To protect SLOC and maintain air parity
  • Aim. To assist MAZARI in defending its
    sovereignty from LANUNLAND

12
FACTORS ....Cont
  • End State. To maintain MAZARI sovereignty
  • Strategic Vulnerabilities
  • Political Stability
  • National Unity
  • Economic Well-being
  • Diplomatic Support

13
FACTORS ....Cont
  • LANUNLAND National Objectives
  • Political. To annex MAZARI into its territory
  • Diplomatic
  • To obtain international recognition and support
    of its claims over MAZARI
  • To legitimise its military actions over MAZARI
  • Shape the perception of the general public in
    AMANLAND and MAZARI, that its action is based on
    bona-fide concept
  • Economic. To protect and minimise the disruption
    of its economic activities during the conflict

14
FACTORS ....Cont
  • Military
  • To occupy and maintain military presence in
    MAZARI
  • To uphold the political and diplomatic objectives
  • Centre of Gravity (COGs). LANUNLANDs COG lies on
    Force Projection

15
COG
Strategic Level
COG
(Domestic Stability)
???????
Operational Level
COG
(Force Projection)
MISSION
COG
Tactical Level
16
FACTORS ....Cont
  • LANUNLANDs Strategic Vulnerability
  • Political Stability
  • Economic Stability
  • National Cohesion
  • Diplomatic Recognition
  • Decisive Points
  • Maritime and airborne force concentration
  • Increase military activities around MAZARI
  • Increase ISR activities
  • Sea and air asset build-up

17
LANUNLANDs COA
  • COA 1. Occupy MAZARI, neutralise AMANLAND
    maritime capabilities, and destroy AMANLAND air
    capabilities
  • Advantages To achieve surprise attack to MAZARI
    and reinforcement the forces in MAZARI before
    AMANLAND would react. The deployment of
    submarines could be done without confrontation
    with AMANLAND naval ships. The DCA could be more
    vigorous than AMANLANDs air force because
    LANUNLAND gains concentration of force
  • Disadvantage of this COA, the LANUNLAND could
    not gain initiative

18
COA 1
DP2
DP4
DP6
OBJ
OBJ
DP1
CG
OBJ
DP3
CG
ATTACK
DP5
DEFEND
Occupy MAZARI
Neutralize AMANLAND Maritime Cap.
Destroy AMANLAND Air Cap.
19
OBJECTIVE To def and expel LANUNLAND from
MAZARI territoryCOG Sustainability of force
projection
AIRLIFT SEALIFT AIRSTRIKE AIRBORNE NTG ENERGY SUPPLY
C-130 LST PILOT C-130 SURFACE CBT SHIP SHIP
CREW NAVAL ESCORT MUNITION RDF PIPELINE
POL POL POL PORTS
AIRFIELD AOR AIRFIELD MPA OIL TANKS
CAP CAP CAP CAP CAP
20
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
ENERGY SUPPLY
SHIPS
PIPELINE
PORTS
OIL TANK
INTERDICT by F16, HAWK F4E
STRIKE by F16, PC7 HAWK
STRIKE by F16 HAWK
STRIKE by F 16 HAWK
21
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
ENERGY SUPPLY
SHIPS
PIPELINE
PORTS
OIL TANK
DP1 ATTACK MAZARI
22
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
AIR STRIKE
PILOT
MUNITION
POL
AIRFIELD
CAP
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING by
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING by
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK F16
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING
INTERDICTION by F5E F16
23
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
AIR STRIKE
PILOT
MUNITION
POL
AIRFIELD
CAP
DP2 DEFENSIVE COUNTER AIR AGAINST AMANLAND
24
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
AIR LIFT
C-130
CREW
POL
AIRFIELD
CAP
STRIKE by F16, HAWK F5E
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING by
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK F16
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING
INTERDICTION by F5E F16
25
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
DP3 DESTROY AMANLAND AIRLIFT CAPABILITY
AIRLIFT
C-130
CREW
POL
AIRFIELD
CAP
26
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
SEALIFT
LST
NAVAL ESCORT
AOR
CAP
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK, F16, SUBS
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK, F16, SUBS
STRIKE by F5E, F16, SUBS
STRIKE by F5E F16
27
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
DP4 NEUTRALISE AMANLAND SEALIFT CAPABILITY
SEALIFT
LST
NAVAL ESCORT
AOR
CAP
28
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
NTG
SURFACE CBT SHIP
MPA
CAP
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK, F16, SUBS
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK F16
STRIKE by F5E F16
29
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
NTG
SURFACE CBT SHIP
MPA
CAP
DP5 NEUTRALISE AMANLAND NTG
30
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
AIRBORNE
C-130
RDF
POL
CAP
STRIKE by A4E, HAWK F16
NOT CAPABLE OF EFFECTING
STRIKE by F5E F16
STRIKE by F5E F16
31
Critical Capability Matrix
C of G
Sustainability of Force Projection
DP6 DESTROY AMANLAND AIRBORNE CAPABILITY
AIRBORNE
C-130
RDF
POL
CAP
32
LANUNLANDs COA ....Cont
  • COA 2. Occupy MAZARI, deny AMANLAND maritime
    forces and conduct DCA to AMANLAND Air Force, as
    well as negate AMANLAND force deployment
  • Advantages To achieve surprise attack to MAZARI
    and reinforcement the forces in MAZARI before
    AMANLAND would react. The deployment of
    submarines could be done without confrontation
    with AMANLAND naval ships. The DCA could be more
    vigorous than AMANLANDs air force because
    LANUNLAND gains concentration of force
  • Disadvantages LANUNLAND could not gain
    initiative

33
COA 2
DP2
DP5
DP4
OBJ
DP1
ATTACK
OBJ
CG
DP3
OBJ
Deny AMANLAND Maritime Forces DCA to AAF
CG
DP6
DEFEND
Negate AMANLAND Forces Deployment
Occupy MAZARI
34
COG
35
LANUNLANDs COA ....Cont
  • COA 3. Conduct maritime and air presence to deter
    AMANLAND hostile act, occupy MAZARI, and negate
    AMANLAND force deployment
  • Advantages To ensure that AMANLAND cannot
    provide military assistance to MAZARI before and
    after occupation of MAZARI
  • Disadvantages It will escalate war

36
COA 3
DP1
DP2
DP4
OBJ
DP5
ATTACK
OBJ
CG
DP3
OBJ
CG
DP6
DEFEND
Conduct Maritime and Air Presence
Negate AMANLAND Forces Deployment
Occupy MAZARI
37
Test COA Criteria
Suitable Feasible Acceptable Distinguishable Sustainable
COA 1 Yes Yes No Yes No
COA 2 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
COA 3 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
38
Cont
  • Probable COA. COA 3. Conduct maritime and air
    presence to deter AMANLAND hostile act, occupy
    MAZARI, and negate AMANLAND force deployment
  • Reasons
  • It enables LANUNLAND to protect itself from
    AMANLAND military intervention at the beginning
  • It enables LANUNLAND to reinforce its strength
    in preparation to fight against AMANLAND

39
Cont
  • Dangerous COA. COA 1. Occupy MAZARI, neutralise
    AMANLAND maritime capabilities, and destroy
    AMANLAND air capabilities
  • Reasons
  • If LANUNLAND is capable, AMANLAND maritime and
    air capabilities will be destroyed, so AMANLAND
    cannot assist MAZARI
  • However, LANUNLAND will take risk to conduct this
    COA

40
Cont
  • Other Nations / Organisations and International
    Considerations
  • Support from international communities
  • Support from regional communities
  • Support from Five Power Defence Arrangement
  • Environment Information (Weather)
  • Monsoon season will affect the military air
    capability
  • The best times to launch operations are - April,
    October and November

41
PLANNING GUIDANCE
  • CDF Intent. To protect MAZARI sovereignty
  • Priorities of Operation
  • To establish ISR in the AO
  • To support deterrence campaign
  • To protect SLOCs
  • To expel LANUNLAND from MAZARI
  • To defence and maintain military presence in
    MAZARI
  •  Strategic Objective
  • To deter LANUNLAND from extending its claim over
    MAZARI
  • To protect SLOCs
  • To maintain MAZARI sovereignty from LANUNLAND
    military aggression
  •  

42
STRATEGIC OPTIONS
  • Diplomatic
  • Economic
  • Military
  • Military presence within AO (except MAZARI
    territory)
  • Military presence in MAZARI territory
  • Pre-emptive actions against LANUNLAND military
    aggression

43
AI
AO
43
44
AI
AO
44
45
AI
AO
45
46
PLANNING GUIDANCE...Cont
  • The Military End State. LANUNLAND threat to
    MAZARI and AMANLAND negate
  • Constraints and Limitation
  • AMANLAND could not conduct a pre-emptive
    operation the MAZARI soil unless authorised
  • All plans and preparation to the operation must
    be ready before the end of October 2008
  • National Policy
  • To gain recognition and support from United
    Nations
  • Force is used as a last option when diplomatic
    channel have been exhausted
  • Honour existing MOU with MAZARI

47
PLANNING GUIDANCE...Cont
  • ROE
  • Avoid collateral damage to the MAZARI civilian
    population and infrastructure
  • Abide strictly to the Law of Armed Conflict and
    Law of the Sea
  • Avoid excessive use of force and use of minimum
    force as far as possible
  • Respect culture and religious site
  • Abide to the human right, and AMANLAND as well as
    MAZARI common law
  • Provide enough warning before using the force
    when necessary

48
LAW
OPERATIONS
ROE
DIPLOMACY
POLICY
49
LAW
OPERATIONS
DIPLOMACY
POLICY
50
LAW
OPERATIONS
ROE
DIPLOMACY
POLICY
51
LAW
OPERATIONS
ROE
DIPLOMACY
POLICY
52
LAW
OPERATIONS
ROE
DIPLOMACY
POLICY
53
THANK YOU (Danke schön)
54
Wir sind fertig für die Fragen.
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