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Demography and Life Expectancy

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Japan, 1996 80 4. Life expectancy and infant mortality ... Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Demography and Life Expectancy


1
Demography and Life Expectancy
  • J. Hughes
  • 2007

2
Definitions
  • Gerontology the study of the aging process
    (biological, sociological, and historical).
  • Geriatrics the branch of medicine that deals
    with health care for the elderly.
  • Demography the statistical study of human
    populations.

3
Fertility Definitions
  • Crude birth rate the annual number of live
    births per thousand people
  • General fertility rate the annual number of live
    births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often
    taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but
    sometimes from 15 to 44).
  • Age-specific fertility rate the annual number of
    live births per 1000 women in particular age
    groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)
  • Total fertility rate the number of live births
    per woman completing her reproductive life if her
    childbearing at each age reflected current
    age-specific fertility rates

4
Fertility in every developed country has fallen
beneath the 2.1 replacement rate.
2.1
5
Total Fertility Rates Europe and North America
1950-2000
____________________ Source United Nations
6
Birth Rates by Region in 2002
7
Contraception and Fertility
8
Total Fertility Rates Asian Countries 1950-2000
In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses
at 0. 5 In PowerPoint a white fill box has been
used to blank out the 0
____________________ Source United Nations
9
European Fertility Rates - 2001
____________________ Source GAD
10
Total Fertility Rates Iran, Turkey, Brazil,
1950-2020
In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses
at 0. 5 In PowerPoint a white fill box has been
used to blank out the 0
1950 and 2020 are text boxes in PowerPoint with a
white fill
2020
1950
-55
-65
-75
-85
-05
-95
-15
-25
____________________ Source United Nations
11
Mortality Definitions
  • Crude death rate the annual number of deaths per
    1000 people
  • Infant mortality rate the annual number of
    deaths of children less than 1 year old per
    thousand live births

12
Death rates in US (CDC 2007)
13
Causes of Death in US (CDC 2007)
14
Mortality rate increases with age
15
Log mortality is linear
Mortality increases exponentially!
16
Definition Life expectancy
  • Life expectancy the number of years which an
    individual at a given age can expect to live at
    present mortality rates
  • For example
  • Mean lifespan of US females 79 years.
  • Expected ls of US females 20 yrs old 83 yrs.
  • Expected ls of US females 85 yrs old 91 yrs
  • Expected ls of US females 90 yrs old 94 yrs.
  • Life expectancy at birth mean lifespan
  • At older ages life expectancy gt mean lifespan
  • Mean Longevity average longevity of a
    population. Sum of ages at death / of
    individuals.
  • Maximum longevity age at death of the
    longest-lived number of a population.

17
Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout
human history
Life expectancy Infant mortality rate at
birth (years) (per 1000 live births) Prehistoric
20-35 200-300 Sweden, 1750s 37 210 India,
1880s 25 230 U. S., 1900 48 133 France,
1950 66 52 Japan, 1996 80 4
18
Historical Life Expectancy
19
Survival curves since Stone Age
20
Infant Mortality by Region in 2002
21
Human lifespan demographics.
22
Human lifespan demographics.
23
Human lifespan
  • Mean Longevity in the US
  • Males, 75 yrs.
  • Females, 80 yrs.
  • Maximum longevity (verified)
  • Jeanne Clament who died in 1997 at age 122

24
Life spans in the developed countries have risen
dramatically.
25
Life expectancy by age groups and gender (2007
CDC report)
26
Life Expectancy League Table, 2007
27
Demographic Transition
  • Increasing Longevity
  • Declining Fertility
  • Baby Boom Cohort
  • Stabilization

28
Worlds 15 Oldest Countries and the U.S.
Percent Age 65 or Older
Sources Carl Haub, 2006 World Population Data
Sheet.
29
Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
Source Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World
Population Data Sheet.
30
Life Expectancy at Birth(1) Male World UK
____________________ Source GAD for UK United
Nations for World Note These are Period Life
expectations, which actually underestimate the
expected life span of a baby born in the year
specified, but which are easier to calculate than
the correct cohort figures and therefore
frequently used in international comparisons. See
footnote x in lecture text for explanation
31
Life Expectancy at 60(1) Male UK France
____________________ Source Eurostat demographic
year book GAD for UK Note On Period basis
32
UN Life Expectancy Projections to 2050
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (medium scenario),
2005.
33
Squaring the survival curve
34
Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002
Source Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002.
National Vital Statistics Reports vol. 53,
no. 6.  Hyattsville, MD National Center for
Health Statistics, 2004. 
35
Life expectancy at birth
Trend in life expectancy (both sexes) since 1965
in industrialised countries
Source France Vallin And Meslé 2001 Russia
Meslé et al. 1998 Ukraine Meslé amd Vallin, in
press other coutnries various statistical and
demographic yearbooks. This chart is in
Demographic Research Special Collection 2
Article 2 , Convergences and divergences in
mortality. A new approach to health transition,
by Jacques Vallin and France Meslé, April 16,
2004
36
Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years in
Some Countries, 1950-1995
Developed Countries Developing Countries Japan
15 China 30 Italy 11 Turkey 24 France
10 India 22 United Kingdom 7 Egypt 19 USA
7 Kenya 18 Sweden 6.1 Brazil 15
Argentina 9
37
Male Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries
Data is from the Human Mortality Database.
University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max
Planck Institute for Demographic Research
(Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data
downloaded on February 2007).
38
Female Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries
Data is from the Human Mortality Database.
University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max
Planck Institute for Demographic Research
(Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data
downloaded on February 2007).
39
Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to
2002, by Gender
40
Life expectancy at birth by sex, France 1806-1997
by Gender
41
Probable causes for longevity in favor of women
  • Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography,
    country, income)
  • Other causes
  • Lesser life stress in females
  • Less smoking
  • Protective action of estrogens?
  • Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations
    with better protection against oxidative damage
  • Others?
  • Implication for prevention and treatment

42
From Pop Pyramids to Pop Columns
Age Group
100
95 - 99
90 - 94
85 - 89
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
0 - 4
43
Italys Population Structure 1970-2050
Millions
  • Age Band
  • 80-100
  • 60-80
  • 40-60
  • 20-40
  • 0-20

____________________ Source U.N. Medium variant
for 2050 projection
44
Proportion of population aged 0-14 versus 65 (In
Italy)
45
Dependency Ratio Dynamics
46
Dependency Ratio Forecasts 2000-2050
Ratio of 20-64 Year Olds to 65
2000 2050
UK 3.7 2.1
Italy 3.4 1.4
USA 4.8 2.8

China 8.8 2.4
Korea 9.0 1.7
World 7.8 3.6
____________________ Source UN Medium Variant
47
Demographic Change in UK and China UN Medium
Variant
Population by Age Band
2050
2000
UK
China
____________________ Source OECD Historical
Statistics OECD Economic Outlook
48
Dependency Ratio Dynamics under Different
Demographic Challenges
Increase in longevity - no change in fertility Support ratio effect can be fully offset by proportional rise in retirement age
Decline in fertility in addition to increase in longevity Proportional rise in retirement age insufficient to offset dependency ratio effect
49
Dependency Ratio Dynamics
50
Key Choices
  • Accept the deterioration of dependency ratios
  • Poorer pensioners
  • Higher taxes
  • Higher savings
  • Offset the deterioration of dependency ratios
  • Immigration
  • Higher birth rate
  • Later retirement ages
  • Healthy longevity (Longevity Dividend)

51
Rising Longevity, Fixed Retirement Age and Stable
Support Ratios
RetirementAge
Initial Structure
PlusRising Longevity
Plus Immigration to Keep Support Ratio Constant
52
Dependency Ratio Dynamics
53
Population Density US and Europe
000s per Sq.km 2000
____________________ Source United Nations,
Statistical Abstract of the US 2002
54
Europe and Its Neighbours Population
Millions
Russia,Ukraine Belarus
European Union
EasternEurope
WesternAsia
Africa
____________________ Source UN Medium Variant
Note UN definition plus Pakistan, Afghanistan
and Iran
55
Demographics and Geopolitical Weight
56
Immigration Pros and Cons
  • Arguments for
  • Arguments
  • against
  • Argument of
  • inevitability
  • - Support ratio improvement
  • Big population gives geopolitical weight.
  • Cultural diversity and economic vitality
  • - Population density environmental economic
    consequences
  • - Integration challenge
  • - Only a temporary solution if all the world is
    successful shifting the burden of adjustment to
    a stable population onto our grandchildren but
    at a higher population density
  • - It is going to happen anyway, so lets ensure
    the integration is successful
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