The Return of Religion in Western Europe?

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The Return of Religion in Western Europe?

• Demography and Politics

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Conclusion

• Northwest Europe (and probably all of western
  Europe) will likely be more religious in 2100
  than in 2000 on current trends because
• Secularisation rates have slowed dramatically, to
  the point of stalling
• Religious women have 10-20 higher fertility, all
  else equal
• Non-European immigrants are far more religious
• Muslim immigrants retain their religiosity

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• Religious people are more conservative, and more
  conservative people vote for right-wing parties,
  BUT immigrants vote for left-wing parties
• Thus much will depend on how parties especially
  conservative ones - position their strategy vis a
  vis religious immigrants
• Ethnic cleavage (Europe) v Religious cleavage
  (USA)?