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KZN Export Week

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KZN Export Week 28 OCTOBER 2015 | Durban, South Africa Global Trade Trends: Implications for South African Exporters Catherine Grant MAKOKERA, Senior Associate at ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: KZN Export Week


1
  • KZN Export Week

28 OCTOBER 2015 Durban, South Africa
Global Trade Trends Implications for South
African Exporters
Catherine Grant MAKOKERA, Senior Associate at
Tutwa Consulting
2
  • Outline
  • Multilateral trade rules ongoing relevance of
    WTO
  • Global trends in regional trade integration
  • Indian Ocean linkages
  • Africas Diversified Partnerships
  • Looking East - China
  • BRICS
  • Middle East as bridge between Africa and Asia
  • Trading amongst ourselves

3
  • World Trade Organisation
  • Rules of the multilateral trading system still
    matter
  • Number of countries joining WTO increasing
  • Dispute settlement mechanism strong
  • Unlikely to be a new round of negotiations in
    near future
  • But important developments likely without a round
  • WTO Ministerial Conference in December 2015 in
    Kenya
  • Possibility that Trade Facilitation Agreement
    will enter into force now over 50 ratifications
    (including Botswana and Mauritius) potential to
    increase global exports by 1 trillion per annum
    (2.7)
  • Possible package for least developed countries
    and maybe some progress on agriculture issues

4
  • Regional Trade Integration Africa and Beyond
  • Tripartite Free Trade Area
  • Continental Free Trade Area
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership
  • Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
  • Partnership
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic
  • Partnership

5
  • Regional Trade Integration Africa and Beyond
  • Tripartite Free Trade Area
  • Continental Free Trade Area
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership
  • Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
  • Partnership
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic
  • Partnership

6
  • Trends in Regional Trade Integration
  • Africa
  • Limited coverage - goods focused
  • Developmental regionalism
  • Infrastructure
  • Industrial policy
  • Best endeavour/cooperation approach
  • Missed deadlines
  • Implementation challenges
  • TPP-TTIP-RCEP
  • Ambitious
  • Broad agenda beyond goods
  • Legally binding harmonisation
  • Supportive of global value chains
  • Time bound negotiations
  • Implications for multilateral system (mega
    regionals)

7
  • Indian Ocean Linkages
  • Major shipping route
  • Half the worlds container ships One-third of
    bulk cargo
  • Two-thirds of all oil shipments
  • Geo-politically strategic
  • Blue economy development
  • Fisheries and Aquaculture
  • Renewable Ocean Energy
  • Seaport and Shipping
  • Seabed Exploration and Minerals

8
  • Indian Ocean Rim Association
  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Comoros
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Seychelles
  • Iran
  • Kenya
  • Madagascar
  • Malaysia
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Oman
  • Singapore
  • South Africa
  • Sri Lanka
  • Tanzania
  • Thailand
  • United Arab Emirates

9
  • Africas Diversified Partnerships Look East
  • Traditional partners remain important especially
    for a more diversified basket of exports
    Europe, US and Japan (very much the same for
    Middle Eastern countries)
  • China is undoubtedly the single most important
    country right now
  • Reinforcing reliance on commodities?
  • Impact of slow-down?
  • Concerns about investments in Africa?
  • After the financial crisis there was a deliberate
    Look East that continues

10
  • Africas Diversified Partnerships BRICS
  • Trade between BRICS is a series of bilateral
    interactions complicated by customs unions
  • Free trade area unlikely in the short term
  • New Development Bank established
  • Initial focus on infrastructure
  • Opportunities for increasing exports in value
    added products
  • Agro-processing
  • Factory India
  • Services

11
  • Africas Diversified Partnerships Middle East
  • Trade with Middle East remains low but increasing
    potential
  • E.g. 20 increase in shipping of fresh produce in
    last year from Southern Africa to ME
  • Beyond goods trade - other linkages important
  • Technology transfer e.g. energy
  • Investment e.g. agriculture
  • Trade in services e.g. airlines
  • Financial and corporate ties e.g. hub for
    multinational corporations

12
  • Africas Diversified Partnerships Trading
    Amongst Ourselves
  • Low levels of intra-African trade 12
  • Development priorities include
  • Integration
  • Industrialisation
  • Infrastructure
  • Entering a potentially new era where it will
    become increasingly easier to move goods,
    capital, people around continent

13
  • Implications for South African Exporters
  • Need increased interaction on global trends
    between government and exporters
  • Have we adapted our understanding of markets
    since financial crisis?
  • Share information on capacities, industry
    structures, partnerships, innovations
  • Support organised business structures including
    export councils and industry associations
  • Use incentives and services provided by
    government
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