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Simobiz Business Game - Mobile Telecom Markets Presentation

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Simobiz Business Game - Mobile Telecom Markets Presentation 09/2003 Michel Berne Institut national des T l communications, Evry, France michel.berne_at_int-evry.fr – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Simobiz Business Game - Mobile Telecom Markets Presentation


1
SimobizBusiness Game - Mobile Telecom
MarketsPresentation
  • 09/2003
  • Michel Berne
  • Institut national des Télécommunications, Evry,
    France
  • michel.berne_at_int-evry.fr

2
Outline
  • The Simobiz Project
  • Simobiz Model
  • Hypothesis
  • Computation modules market, networks, HR,
    finance
  • Print-outs
  • Simulations
  • Conclusions perspectives

3
Presentation
  • Simobiz is a business simulation game on mobile
    networks and markets
  • Developed by a team at INT Jean-Michel Sahut
    (project manager), Michel Berne (technical
    coordinator), Rasto Kulich (PhD student) - SGES
    Dpt
  • Intitially funded through a GET project with
    ENSTBr and the University of Zilina (Slovakia)
  • First product  Stratmob designed for France
    Telecom RD
  • Simobiz developed 2002/2003 (under code name
    Mobilix)

4
Timeline
  • Summer 2000 project definition
  • Fall 2000-Fall 2001 1st model built
  • Winter 2001-2002 Main model built
  • Spring 2002 tests
  • End 2002 commercial launch
  • At 30/6/03 5 main sessions, 81 participants
  • Perspectives 2003/2004 8 sessions planned for 3
    institutions and more than 120 participants
  • Under consideration to be included in the program
    of the ITU Centers of Excellence

5
Development Guidelines
  • Flexibility, technology-neutral
  • Learning-oriented
  • Trade-off  playability / realism
  • Modular easy to maintain

6
Features (1)
  • 3 operators each operator can offer 4 service
    plans x 4 mobile terminals
  • 2 network types (GSM UMTS)
  • 2 market segments (each with 2 sub-segments)
  • 2 geographic zones (eg cities, countryside)
  • 8 simulation periods (1 period 1 year)

7
Features (2)
  • Simobiz is fully flexible
  • economic environment, demographics, geography
  • technology
  • regulation
  • labor market, financial markets
  • Simobiz can be used at various levels
  • Network, HR, Finance blocks can be  switched 
    off
  • Simulations
  • Simobiz support tools are availaible return on
    investment, EBITDA

8
Features (3) Scenario
  • Simobiz is played according to pre-defined
    scenarios
  • description of the country  hosting  the
    simulation
  • new technologies introduction timeline
  • including supplementary exercises UMTS
    auctions negotiations with bankers and
    regulator MVNO etc.
  • Depending on the goals set (pedagogic goals
    simulation)

9
Finally...
  • Simobiz contains several dozens structural
    equations several hundreds  accounting 
    equations several hundreds parameters
  • Using a Systems Analysys approach
  • Supported by quantitative research
  • Implemented as a Microsoft Excel workfile for
    easy maintenance and portability
  • to be used in class / short courses distant
    support available

10
Model Architecture
Marketing
HR
Network
Finance
11
Block 1 Game Core
  • Diffusion function ( contagion )
  • Operator service plans
  • Customer satisfaction function
  • Market Share function (Logit-like)

12
Block 1 Game Core
13
Diffusion
  • Equiped individuals will  contaminate 
    non-equiped through contact  contamined 
    individuals may buy.
  • This effect is reinforced by advertising and
    distribution expenses
  • Telecom budget of individuals depends on their
    income, service quality, number of users (club
    effect)

14
Operators Service Plans (1)
  • 16  packs  (4 plans) x (4 terminals)
  • Catalogue including 10 mobiles, updated yearly
  • Catalogue including 10 value-added services
    packs, updated yeary
  • Service Plans
  • GSM (basic), GPRS, EDGE, UMTS (basic)
    further versions possible
  • (annual subscription) price/minute
    (GSM) or price/MByte (UMTS)
  • Each terminal, each plan has a  quality index 
    used by customers

15
Operators Service Plans (2)
  • For one or two geographic zones (part coverage
    possible)
  • Do not require building its own network (MVNO
    possible)

16
Satisfaction function
  • Each consumer has a limited budget
  • She/He computes her/his satisfaction provided by
    each  pack  (terminal/plan) of each operator
    (including a fixed line)
  • Satisfaction depends on prices and quality of
    terminals and plans
  • and on advertising and distribution efforts of
    operators

17
Market share function
  • Luce model (Multinomial Logit variant)
  • A consumer has a high probability of choosing the
    pack giving him/her the highest satisfaction
  • And a decreasing probability of choosing less and
    less satisfying packs
  • This function is realistic, controllable, stable
    includes a feature to control churn

18
Block 2 Networks
  • 1 GSM ( GPRS, EDGE) network, 1 UMTS network per
    operator and per zone
  • Simplified network planning (for GSM TRX, BTS,
    BSC, MSC, GGSN/SGSN) on the basis of traffic
    forecasts (outgoing and incoming) made by
    operators all other network elements are rented
    to the fixed line operator
  • Each zone is made of downtown, suburban and rural
    areas in variable proportion.

19
Block 2 Networks
  • Network deployment can be limited by available
    frequency bands
  • Network  quality index  are computed
    maintenance, coverage,
  • Distinction offered/carried/sold traffic MVNO
    possible

20
Block 2 Networks
21
Block 3 Human Resources
  • 6 categories (maximum) for staff
  • Employees/supervisors/managersTechnical/Marketing
  • Detailed personnel management (hires,
    resignations, promotions, transfers)
  •  Optimal staffing  computed by the model for
    each category
  •  Labor quality  index including staffing,
    training, experience...

22
Block 3 Human Resources
23
Block 4 Finance
  • Detailed income statement
  • Balance sheet
  • Statement of sources and uses of funds
  • Cash management
  • Debt management (long term and short term)
  • Fiscal policies
  • Dividend policy

24
Block 4 Finance
25
Other results
  • Commercial ARPU, Churn, Terminals sales
    (global, per zone and market segment), brand
    value etc.
  • Network default rate, congestion (hourly, with
    transfer of blocked calls to free periods)
  • Human Resources turnover, seniority
  • Share price

26
Example network congestion
M Erlangs
hours
27
Business Simulations
  • Simobiz can also be used for simulation purposes
  • Pricing schemes (handset subsidies, prepaid)
  • Human resources management
  • Business plans
  • Transitions
  • RPP-CPP
  • GSM-GPRS
  • GSM-UMTS

28
Example Price simulation
  • with 2 prepaid operators and prices varying 0,005
    to 3 Euro/minute
  • Subscribers millions
  • Profit million Euros
  • ARPU Euro/month

0,005 0,1 1 3
Price/minute (log scale)
29
Conclusions - Uses
  • Pedagogic benefits for advanced students and
    executive education
  • integration and consistency of decisions made in
    the main business functions
  • study of technological diffusion
  • study of key phases in business planning
  • group work under stress...
  • Simulations

30
Conclusions - Perspectives
  • Now creation of new scenarios
  • Short-term
  • distance use tools
  • academic cooperation
  • Long-term extension to other telecom services
    (WLL etc.) is possible
  • Long-term adaptation to other network services
    (pay-TV, banking etc.)
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