A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia Career Centers

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A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia
Career Centers

• Randall W. Eberts and Christopher J. OLeary
• W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
• www.upjohn.org

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Goals of One-stop Career Centers

• To integrate and coordinate employment services
  into a comprehensive and cohesive delivery system
• To facilitate employment and career development
  through informed choice and high quality services

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Goals for FDSS

• To inform customer choice
• To integrate information from customer
  application, administrative records and labor
  market information systems
• To present relevant information in an accessible
  way for customers and staff
• To appropriately target services to customers

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Targeting

• With limited WIA funds, not all workers receive
  intensive or training services
• Currently, funds are allocated using informal
  targeting methods
• First-come, first-served basis
• Preference to certain groups
• Is there a better way to target WIA resources?

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FDSS Tools

• Tools assist career center staff to
• Quickly assess needs of customers
• Target services to meet customers needs
• Deliver services in an effective and efficient
  manner
• And aid customers to
• Become better informed about job options (reality
  check)
• Quickly and systematically access labor market
  exchange information and services
• Find better job matches more quickly
• Identify services that best meet their needs
• Determine eligibility for services

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Georgia FDSS

• Frontline Decision Support System is a joint
  effort of the USDOL/ETA, the Georgia Department
  of Labor, and the Upjohn Institute
• It provides customized guidance for each
  individual seeking assistance
• FDSS informs choices during
• The job search process
• The service referral process

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As a case worker I would spend at least 30
minutes with each client inputting information
that I knew was not going to be used to help
my client directly, but only to fill out
reports Now we have an opportunity to use this
information to do a better job helping clients.
State ESD Staff person
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Service Flow of Career Centers
Intake
Core Services
Referrals
Training Services
Intensive Services
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Career Center Services
Core

• Assessment interviews
• Resume workshop
• Labor market information
• Job interview referral

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Career Center Services

• Intensive

• Individual and group counseling
• Case management

• Aptitude and skill proficiency testing

• Job finding clubs

• Job search plan
• Career planning

• Job search review
• UI eligibility review

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Career Center Services

• Training
• Adult basic skills education
• On-the-job training
• Work experience
• Occupational skills training
• Youth educational achievement services
• Additional support for youth services
• Citizenship skills for youth

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FDSS Tools

• Tools are customized to reflect an individuals
  needs and propensities
• Based on the experience of people who have
  similar characteristics and similar histories of
  program participation and work
• Tools relate outcomes to personal characteristics
  and other factors

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FDSS Tools

• Two components
• Tools to help job seekers appraise employment
  prospects
• A ranking of services that may be most effective
  given a claimants background characteristics

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FDSS Tools

• Systematic Job Search Module
• Chance of returning to same industry
• Estimate likely reemployment earnings
• Scan job prospects
• Identify related occupations
• Provide targeted information about specific jobs
• Service Referral Module
• Rank services by effectiveness for re-employment
• Indicate typical use

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FDSS Tools
Intake
Core Services
Systematic Search Module

• Review intake info work history

• Estimate chance of returning
• To industry/occupation

• Earnings history estimate

• Search job orders

• Choose related occupations

Referrals
Service Referral Module
Training Services
Intensive Services
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Data Sources

• UI wage records

Employment/earnings history

• Program records
• ES, UI, JTPA/WIA
• WtW

Worker/client characteristics Program
participation Employment history

• Labor Market
• Information

Local unemployment rates Occupation/industry
projections Related/transferable
occupations Massive layoffs
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Individual Customer Time Lines
Program participation (services)
Registration
Work History
Work Outcomes

• Industry of post job

• Labor market
• Conditions
• Industry of prior job

Personal Characteristics Occupation
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Available Data
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Customized

• Modules are customized for different types of job
  seekers
• UI claimants by risk of exhausting benefits
• ES registrants not eligible for UI
• Veterans
• Job seekers referred to special assistance unit,
  because of barriers to employment
• Youth

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Customized

• And different regions
• Atlanta
• Coastal
• Northern
• Balance of Georgia

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Systematic Job Search Module

• Chance of returning to same industry and
  occupation
• Expected job growth in prior occupation
• Estimate likely employment earnings
• Explore What if scenarios
• Scan job prospects
• Identify related occupations and continue search

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Systematic Job Search Module

• Chance of returning to same industry and
  occupation
• Expected job growth in prior occupation
• Estimate likely employment earnings
• Explore What if scenarios
• Scan job prospects
• Identify related occupations and continue search

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Job Prospects (Returning to Same Industry) and
Earnings

• Relates job outcomes to
• Education
• Dislocated worker status
• Disadvantaged worker status
• Age
• Prior occupation and industry
• Work history
• Military service
• Barriers to employment (eg., transportation, etc)
• Local labor market conditions

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Returning to Same Industry
Characteristics Person Person Person
Characteristics A B C
Maximum Prior Earnings 7502
Age 35
Education, less than high school 0
Education, more than high school 0
Months of tenure on most recent job 24
Employed 0
Occupation, clerical and sales 1
Held job last quarter 1
Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294
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Returning to Same Industry
Characteristics Person Person Person
Characteristics A B C
Maximum Prior Earnings 7502 15002 3499
Age 35 35 35
Education, less than high school 0 0 1
Education, more than high school 0 1 0
Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8
Employed 0 1 0
Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1
Held job last quarter 1 1 0
Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294 .327 .172
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Returning to Same Industry
Characteristics Person Person Person
Characteristics A B C
Maximum Prior Earnings 7502 15002 3499
Age 35 35 35
Education, less than high school 0 0 1
Education, more than high school 0 1 0
Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8
Employed 0 1 0
Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1
Held job last quarter 1 1 0
Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294 .327 .172
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Predicted Earnings
Characteristics Person Person Person
Characteristics A B C
Maximum Prior Earnings 7502 15002 3499
Age 35 35 35
Education, less than high school 0 0 1
Education, more than high school 0 1 0
Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8
Likelihood of staying in same industry .294 .327 .172
Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1
Predicted Earnings (median) 6728 12618 3387
Ratio of predicted earnings to prior earnings .90 .84 .97
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Service Referral Algorithm

• Provides a customized list of services that have
  been shown to be most effective in helping
  participants possessing similar characteristics
  find and retain jobs
• Core and intensive list
• Training list
• Based on information about the characteristics
  and outcomes of recent participants in programs

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Service Referral

• Two basic components
• Estimate likelihood of finding a job (needs
  assessment)
• Ranking of services that lead to successful
  outcomes for individuals with specific measurable
  characteristics

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Four Step Process

• An employability score is computed and assigned
  to each participant
• The employability score identifies individuals
  according to their propensity to find a job
• The score is divided into quintiles
• The effectiveness of each service is computed for
  clients within each quintile and client type
• Services are ranked according to their
  effectiveness in assisting clients gain steady
  employment
• For each service, the percentage of clients
  within each quintile is also displayed

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Characteristics by Quintiles
Atlanta Region Employability Score by Quintiles Employability Score by Quintiles Employability Score by Quintiles Employability Score by Quintiles Employability Score by Quintiles
Characteristics 1 2 3 4 5
Percent UI, disadvantaged only 0.47 0.40 0.24 0.12 0.04
Percent UI, dislocated worker only 0.12 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.39
Employed 0.70 0.78 0.83 0.87 0.90
Employability Score 0.33 0.52 0.64 0.74 0.86
Maximum quarterly earnings 4332 4534 5142 6141 7675
Bachelor Degree 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.26
Months tenure with prior job 11 15 19 28 59
Professional, technical occupation 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.31 0.46
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Top Five Services
Employability Score Quintiles (All UI Clients Atlanta Region) Employability Score Quintiles (All UI Clients Atlanta Region) Employability Score Quintiles (All UI Clients Atlanta Region) Employability Score Quintiles (All UI Clients Atlanta Region) Employability Score Quintiles (All UI Clients Atlanta Region)
1 2 3 4 5
Testing Testing Job Finding Club Service Coordination Service Coordination
Orientation Orientation Testing Testing Testing
Service Coordination Bonding Assistance ERP Job Finding Club Job Finding Club
Specific LMI Service Coordination Orientation Expanded Workshop Expanded Workshop
ERP Counseling Counseling Orientation Orientation
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Pilot Offices Lessons Learned

• Two pilot career centers
• Cobb/Cherokee and Athens
• MUSTS
• Involve local (and especially line staff) in
  initial planning and design
• Make the system easy for staff and customers to
  understand and use
• Allow experimentation

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Pilot Offices Lessons Learned

• Our To Do List
• TEST, TEST, TEST!!!
• Then correct and test again
• Add eligibility component
• Look for ways to keep information timely
• Experiment with a self-service version

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Summary and Conclusion

• FDSS is an enhancement of existing one-stop
  operating systems
• It automatically assembles and presents
  information to inform the choices of individual
  job seekers
• Re-training of one-stop staff is essential and
  FDSS offers a framework for staff training

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A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia
Career Centers

• Randall W. Eberts and Christopher J. OLeary
• W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
• www.upjohn.org