Working Together to Make North Carolina Schools Second to None

1
The Public School Forum of North Carolina

• Working Together to Make North Carolina Schools
  Second to None

2
Public Policy and Education

• The Collision of Idealism, Ideology,
  Organizational / Agency Self-Interest Politics

3
EPFP 2010-11

• Over the coming months you will have an
  opportunity to see the Good, Bad Ugly of This
  thing called the Policy Arena

4
Recognize Some Bias on our Part

1. We are policy wonks, political junkies
   advocates
2. We respect (although at times its hard) the
   process and believe that good things can, and do,
   come from an imperfect system
3. We believe that (for the most part) elected
   officials attempt to do what is right for kids in
   North Carolina

5
Some Refrains Youll Observe Hear from a
Variety of Quarters

• Policy making is all about people
  relationships.
• It is also about party, ideology and campaign
  donations.
• It is very much about the drive to be re-elected
  to office.
• It is about credibility (for better or worse, you
  are blessed by or saddled with the credibility of
  your organization).
• It is about personal honesty, straight shooting,
  and consistency.
• Most of all, it is a process. What doesnt
  happen today can happen tomorrow. Play for the
  long haul. Dont burn bridges over a one-year
  setback.

6
Youll Also Hear, and Following the Elections
Possibly Observe

• That power is fleeting (remember Jim Black?)
• Surprises happen (remember Jim Martin or, better
  yet, who can forget Sarah Palin?)
• Urgency makes strange bed fellows (witness the
  Wall Street Meltdown)
• There is nothing like a real or imagined crisis
  to drive policy (witness the Wall Street
  meltdown better yet, think about dropout
  policymaking)
• Policymaking is bigger than education the
  interconnectivity of government impacts school
  policies (i.e. a slowdown in revenue collections,
  overcrowded prisons, bridges collapsing,
  hurricane relief, children losing medical benefit
  coverage, etc.)

7
Today, Lets Look Quickly at Major Players in the
Educational Policymaking Arena

• First, major elected leaders units of
  Government

The Office of the Governor (bully pulpit,
Cabinet, budget proposals veto) State
Board of Education
General Assembly (budget recommendations
(power of purse strings
responsible for rules and regulations,
frequently pass educational curriculum
testing)
policies)
8
Leadership on Educational Issues Shifts Between
the Governor, the State Board of Education the
General Assembly

• Smart Start Governor Hunt
• More at Four Governor Easley
• High Schools Governor Easley
• ABCs System State Board of Education
• SB 2 (1st accountability) General Assembly
• Funding for Poor/Small Systems General Assembly
• School Calendar Bill General Assembly
• Dropout Prevention Initiative General Assembly
• Collaborative Project General Assembly

9
If K-12 Policymaking Were that Simple We Wouldnt
Need EPFP

• Unfortunately, it isnt that simple. It also
  includes
• UNC
• Community College System
• More at Four
• Smart Start
• SOS Crime Commission programs
• While publicly these various educational entities
  are all in it together, there is predictable
  competition and jockeying for additional funding.

10
The Role of Non-Governmental Groups In
Establishing Education Policy in NC
11
Categories of Non-Governmental Organizations
(NGOs) That Are Active in the NC Educational
Policy Arena

• Unions Professional Associations
• Broad Public Policy NGOs
• Educational Non-Profits
• Business Organizations
• For-Profit NGOs

12
Taking a Closer Look. . .

• Unions Professional Associations
• (NCASA, NCAE, NCSBA, NCPAPA, ASCD, Discipline
  Groups)

13

• Typically
• Narrow Focus
• Bread Butter Security Issues or Issues
  Related to Narrow Curriculum Focus
• Issues of Control
• Frequently Reactive
• Poor Record of Improvement Leadership
• Cutting Differences
• Those with Full-Time Lobbyists Those Without
• Those With PACs and Those Without
• Numbers (i.e. potential votes)

14
Broad Policy Groups Divide Along Ideological Lines
Liberal Moderate Conservative
Tax Justice Center Center for Public Policy Locke Foundation
Child Advocacy Coalition Pope Center on Higher Education
NAACP Other Minority Organizations NC Education Alliance
15
Broad Public Policy Groups (cont.)

• Liberals Tend to
• Advocate for Disadvantaged, Minorities
• Call for New Resources (targeted)
• Increasingly Hold Schools Accountable
• Conservatives Tend to
• Questions Competency of the blob
• Oppose Calls for New Money
• Favor Choice
• Moderates Tend to
• Inform Discussion with Research
• Focus Heavily on Good Government Issues

16
Educational NGOs

• Communities in Schools
• Futures4Kids
• Teach for America
• All Kinds of Minds
• Center for Teacher Quality
• Center for International Understanding
• NC Real
• NC Network
• NC Teacher Learning Quality
• New Schools Project

17
Educational NGOs Tend To

1. Have a Relatively Narrow (and self-serving)
   Agenda.
2. Identify Legislative Champions
3. Rise Fall Depending on Legislative Champions
4. Be Competitive for State/ Foundation/ Corporate
   Support
5. Avoid Policy Arena Except for Own Interests

18
Business Organizations in the Educational Arena

• NC Citizens for Business Industry
• NCBCE
• They tend to
• Be Pro a Stronger Work Force
• Focus on Bottom Line Issues
• See Education as an Economic Issue
• Are Increasingly Obsessed with Global Competition
• Be Ambivalent on Taxes
• Frequently be Critical of Government

19
In All Cases

• Those with lobbyists are more influential than
  those without.
• Those with PACs have more impact than those
  without.
• Those with independent research capacity have an
  edge.
• Those that are seen as school/child focused have
  more receptivity than those viewed as narrow
  interest groups.
• They use various routes to make policy (Governor,
  State Board, General Assembly, etc.)

20
Major Clashes Among NGOs

• Tax/Resource Issues
• School Choice versus Strong Public System
• Faith in the System versus Suspicion of
  Government
• Narrow Self-Interest Agendas versus Broad
  Improvement Agendas

21
Where Does the Forum Fit In This Mix?
22
Its an Educational Non Profit, but

• Rather a Chameleon
• No members
• No annual legislative priority list
• No political action arm

23
Goal is to Be

• Not just another special interest group
• Viewed as a resource/collaborator
• Trusted source of information
• Willing to speak the truth

24
Forums Key Initiatives Include

• Teaching Fellows Program
• Project Teach
• The Collaborative Project
• North Carolina Center for Afterschool Programs
  (NC CAP)
• Education Policy Fellowship Program (EPFP)
• NC Institute for Educational Policymakers
• International Studies Program
• Education Everybodys Business Coalition
• Columbia Group
• NC Partners

25
Lets Wrap Up With Some Lessons Learned About
Influencing Public Policy
26
Good Lobbying

• Is a combination of passion and good data
• Is predicated on a belief in the system
• Is all about people and relationships
• Is a marathon, not a sprint

27
only he who attempts the absurd is capable of
achieving the impossible.
28
Youre in EPFP at an Exciting Time

• Mid-Term Election year First time in 113 years
  (1998) both houses will be Republican Majority
• Revenue picture still gloomy more cuts likely
  end of stimulus money just around the corner
• Increasing focus on results (or lack thereof)
  Race to the Top
• Major issues coming to a head (i.e., No Child
  reauthorization, testing in NC, etc.)

29
Race to the Bottom
30
While the Glow of Winning The Race to the Top
Competition Is Still There . . .

• Another competition is about to begin

31
We Could Be Poised to win

• The Race to the Bottom

32
Deficit Estimates Currently Range From 3.6
Billion to Over 4 Billion
33
Federal stimulus funds are slated to end -

• 738 Million for K-12 Education Alone

34
Currently K-12 Education Represents 35 of the
State Budget

• If K-12s portion of the 3.6 billion deficit
  equaled 35, it would mean a loss of 1.26billion.

35
Recently the Governor Made Two Announcements

• No extension of temporary taxes will be in the
  Governors budget
• All state agencies are to submit plans for 5, 10
  and 15 cuts

36
What could that mean for k-12 education?

• 5 -394,485,753
• 10 -788,971,506
• 15 -1,183,457,259

37
Cuts of that magnitude coupled with a loss of
federal stimulus dollars would represent
Possible State Cut Federal Stimulus Coming to an End Potential Impact
5 -394,485,753 -738,000,000 -1,132,485,753
10 -788,971,506 -738,000,000 -1,526,971,506
15 -1,183,457,259 -738,000,000 -1,921,457,259
38
Even factoring in Race to the top revenue (which
cant be used to supplant existing costs), the
size of the potential cuts remain severe.
Possible State Cut Federal Stimulus Minus RTTT 100 Million Potential Impact
5 -394,485,753 -738,000,000 100,000,000 -1,032,485,753
10 -788,971,506 -738,000,000 100,000,000 -1,426,971,506
15 -1,183,457,259 -738,000,000 100,000,000 -1,821,457,259
39
If we take the most optimistic scenario and
presume that only 100 of the 300 million
federal jobs funds (to protect teacher positions)
will be spent this year, leaving 200 million to
buffer cuts, the impact remains severe . . .
Possible State Cut Federal Stimulus Potential Impact Minus RTTT 100 Million Minus 200 Million of JOBS
5 -394,485,753 -738,000,000 -1,132,485,753 -1,032,485,753 -862,485,753
10 -788,971,506 -738,000,000 -1,526,971,506 -1,426,971,506 -1,226,971,506
15 -1,183,457,259 -738,000,000 -1,921,457,259 -1,821,457,259 -1,621,457,259
40
Where would that leave North Carolina?

• At or near the bottom on per pupil spending

41
North Carolina (contrary to the opinion of some)
is a low-spend state

• Based on the most recent NEA rankings, North
  Carolina is 42nd on per pupil spending

42
2008-09 Per Pupil Expenditures
Rank State Per Pupil Rank State Per Pupil
1 District of Columbia 17,638 42 North Carolina 8,743
2 Rhode Island 17,289 43 California 8,322
3 New Jersey 16,253 44 Tennessee 8,261
4 New York 15,997 45 North Dakota 8,222
5 Wyoming 14,732 46 Oklahoma 8,006
6 Vermont 14,679 47 Idaho 7,730
7 Massachusetts 13,901 48 Nevada 7,615
8 Connecticut 13,864 49 Mississippi 7,484
9 Maine 13,309 50 Arizona 5,932
10 Delaware 13,039 51 Utah 5,912
National Average 10,190
43
Depending on the Severity of Cuts, North Carolina
could end up at or near the bottom of national
rankings on per pupil spending
44
Its safe to presume cuts in the Magnitude of
500-1,000 per student

• (ie. 720 Million to 1.44 Billion)

45
Consider what that means

• For an elementary school of 600 students
• Cuts equaling 300,000-600,000
• How to Find it
• 20 - 40,000 from books / materials / staff
  development
• 2 Teacher jobs (give you roughly 100,000)
• 3 Teacher Assistants or Clerical Staff (give you
  100,000)

46
For a High School of 2,500 Students

• Cuts equaling 1.25 Million - 2.5 Million

47
Its Not a Pretty Picture
48
Its Worse when you consider the following

• State funding has been cut 638 million in the
  last two sessions.
• All state funding for staff development has
  already been cut
• All state funding for mentoring new teachers has
  already been cut
• Most local schools have already made the easy
  cuts (administration, etc.)
• 15,000 students have lost afterschool care

49
Our Real Dilemma

• Program cuts impacting instruction and
  staffing quality (ie. staff development, class
  sizes, new teacher mentoring, foreign language
  programs, Advance Placement courses) will not
  come back for years.
• When state revenue begins to rebound for the
  1st and probably 2nd years all new money will (in
  all probability) go to catch up salaries which
  will have been frozen for 4 consecutive years
  and restoration of jobs that are essential.
• Instructional program restoration will be
  years away.

50
Are there options?

• Of Course
• Extend the temporary sales tax
• (cuts deficit by 1 billion)
• Consider additional revenue measures
• Better yet, revamp our antiquated taxing system

51
There are options

• The Question is Whether there is Will

52
Let me close with one last thought

• The impending cuts are potentially going to hit
  all aspects of government- K-12 schools,
  Community Colleges, UNC, Healthcare, Parks, Local
  Government and more.
• Hundreds and more likely thousands of state and
  local jobs will disappear
• But its much more than a jobs issue

53
Were talking about North Carolina

• Its quality of life, its future

54
For Us in Education

• Its about kids and their future
• Its about North Carolina and its economic
  viability

55
The race to the bottom

• Its a contest we dont Want to Win!

56
John Dornanjdornan_at_ncforum.org919-781-6833www.n
cforum.org