Energy Security Tangibles and Intangibles Technology and Policy Opposite Ends of a SoSE Paradox Spectrum

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Energy Security Tangibles and Intangibles
Technology and PolicyOpposite Ends of a SoSE
Paradox Spectrum

• Adrian V. Gheorghe

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Black, Red, Caspian, Persian Sea
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http//www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Caspian/images/casp_fi
g2_gasrsrvs.gif
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.The Caspian Sea region, including the Sea and
the states surrounding it, is important to World
energy markets because of its potential to become
a major oil and natural gas exporter over the
next decade .
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Desperate to meet growing domestic and European
demand, Russia signed a deal Thursday with the
Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan to build a natural gas pipeline
along the Caspian Sea, a move that analysts said
could strengthen Russias monopoly on energy
exports from the region. The deal was signed in
the Kremlin by President Vladimir V. Putin of
Russia and President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev of
Kazakhstan during a conference call with
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov of
Turkmenistan. Mr. Putin, who visited both
countries several times over the last two years
to clinch this deal, said on Russian national
television that the agreement would contribute to
strengthening the European energy
security. Russia supplies more than a quarter
of Europes gas needs several Eastern European
countries are almost completely dependent on
Russia for natural gas.
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Gazprom, Russias state-owned energy monopoly,
has had to seek new and expensive suppliers,
mostly in Central Asia, to fulfill its export
contracts in Europe while also supplying its
domestic market, which has rapidly expanded
because of the surge in consumer spending and
economic growth. The reality is that Russia is
not investing enough in its own gas
infrastructure and has not enough of its own gas
to supply Europe and its domestic market, said
Andrew Monaghan, director of the Russian Research
Network at the Defense Academy of the United
Kingdom. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have also
been wooed by the United States and the European
Union, seeking access to the regions gas fields.
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• The United States has been trying to persuade
  Central Asian nations to build a pipeline under
  the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia and Iran. But
  that proposal has been held up by a dispute over
  the status of the Caspian Sea among the countries
  that border it, including Turkmenistan,
  Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia.
• The European Union, too, has been trying to
  diversify its suppliers and its routes, mainly
  via the Caspian Sea, by building the Nabucco gas
  pipeline, the unions most ambitious
  infrastructure project.
• That project envisions a pipeline stretching
  about 2,000 miles from Turkey through the Balkans
  and Central Europe into Austria. Turkmenistan,
  Azerbaijan and Iran, which hold the largest
  reserves, would feed gas into the pipeline.

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Tangled Pipelines in the Caspian
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Caspian Pipeline Consortium Structure
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Tangibles
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Intangibles URBAN REGENERATION IN TURKMENISTAN
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Europes Pipeline War
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Demonstrations of a DSS TiT Decision Space
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Dealing with a Matrix for Tangibles / Intangibles
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Future Work

• Integrating Tangibles and Intangibles
• Adding Vulnerability Related Indicators
• Using a Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
  Model
• Stakeholders integration
• AHP modeling to further consider pipeline route
  assessment

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Questions!