Development Economics

1
(No Transcript)
2
8. Population and Development

• World population growth, 1980-2005, was 1.6
  yearly, increasing the population from 4.4
  billion to 6.5 billion.
• LDC population growth during the same period was
  2 yearly.

3
Major topics

• Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs
• Demographic transition, death rates (DRs),
  birth rates (BRs)
• Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between
  population economic growth
• Food-population balance
• Is population growth an obstacle to economic
  growth?
• Population pyramids
• Reducing fertility

4
(No Transcript)
5
Population growth in DCs LDCs

• DCs transitional economies lt 0.8 p.a.
• Some E SE Asian Latin American economies
  0.8-1.8 p.a.
• Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa, South
  Asia Central America gt1.8 p.a.

6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
World Population Growth by Region

• Africa 2000-25 projected 2.4 yearly growth (38
  BR 14 DR)
• Latin America 2000-25 1.3 yearly growth
• Asia 2000-25 1.1 yearly growth

9
(No Transcript)
10
World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to
2005

• Growth 2.3 yearly at peak in 1960.
• Growth 1.3 2005.
• Expected growth 0.8 in 2025.
• See Figure 8-4.

11
(No Transcript)
12
What is the demographic transition?
13
Demographic Transition

• Period of rapid population growth between
  preindustrial stable population (high BR DR)
  and later modern stable population (low BR DR)
• DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to
  population explosion

14
Western non-Western patterns

• After 1650, Western countries increased
  population more rapidly steadily
• 1930-2005 population growth rate declined
• Except for China Japan, non-Western countries
  did not experience population growth until after
  1930

15
(No Transcript)
16
Stage 1 high fertility mortality

• Most of humankinds history
• Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry,
  agriculture, trade, transport communication.
• Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous
• Fertility must match morality for populations to
  survive
• Large families a blessing from God

17
Stage 2 declining mortality

• Agricultural production increased improved
  trade, transport, communication
• Death from infectious diseases declined
• Nutrition improved
• Patterns differ between early DCs LDCs

18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth

• Africas fall in life expectancy from the 1990s
  to the first decade of the 21st century is an
  anomaly among LDCs
• How do you explain this anomaly?

21
How do you explain Africas fall in life
expectancy?

• Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

22
Stage 3 Declining Fertility

• Family planning programs
• Worlds total fertility rate the number of
  children born to the average woman during her
  reproductive years 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987
  (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8)

23
(No Transcript)
24
Stage 4 Stationary population (low DR BR)

• Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Belgium,
  Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine,
  Bulgaria.

25
Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic
Development (Malthus vs. Simon)

• Malthusian view population increases
  geometrically 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.,
  outstripping food supply, increasing
  arithmetically 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
• Simon more people increase the stock of
  knowledge through additional learning gains,
  compounded by the quickening effect of greater
  competition and total demand spurring necessity
  as the mother for invention. Division of labor
  economies of large-scale production increase as
  markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire
  population policy.

26
Does this just reflect a shift from consumption
of grain to other foods as income increases?
27
UN Development Program (200387)

• If all the food produced worldwide were
  distributed equally, every person would be able
  to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is
  defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a
  day). . .
• Hunger is more than just a lack of available
  food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food
  entitlement and deprivations in related essential
  services (health care, education, safe drinking
  water, adequate sanitation).

28
Energy limitations

• Substantial gains made in food productivity
  during the late 20th century were partly
  dependent on cheap, abundant energy.
• Will higher real energy prices reduce further
  gains in food productivity?

29
What other costs are there to high fertility
rapid population growth other than diminishing
returns to land?

• Urbanization congestion
• Rapid labor force growth increasing
  unemployment (Ch. 9)
• Higher dependency ratios ratio of nonworking
  population to working-age population (see next
  two slides)

30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)
32
Econometric studies (p. 296)

• High fertility rapid population growth hinder
  growth of GNP per capita.
• Barro (1997) increased resources devoted to
  child rearing instead of production contribute to
  negative relationship between population growth
  rate GNP per capita.

33
(No Transcript)
34
Previous slide (from p. 302)

• Poor people, poorly educated people, rural
  people, and those in agriculture have higher
  birth rates than others

35
Population development

• Bucharest conference Development is the best
  contraceptive
• Crucial role of education labor force
  participation of women

36
Strategies for reducing fertility

• Birth control programs
• Socioeconomic development (see next slide)
• Development or family planning?
• - Both are essential to reduce fertility rates