Development Economics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development Economics

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Title: Development Economics Econ 682 Author: Wayne Nafziger Last modified by: Econ 2 Created Date: 8/22/2005 3:04:33 PM Document presentation format – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Development Economics


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8. Population and Development
  • World population growth, 1980-2005, was 1.6
    yearly, increasing the population from 4.4
    billion to 6.5 billion.
  • LDC population growth during the same period was
    2 yearly.

3
Major topics
  • Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs
  • Demographic transition, death rates (DRs),
    birth rates (BRs)
  • Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between
    population economic growth
  • Food-population balance
  • Is population growth an obstacle to economic
    growth?
  • Population pyramids
  • Reducing fertility

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Population growth in DCs LDCs
  • DCs transitional economies lt 0.8 p.a.
  • Some E SE Asian Latin American economies
    0.8-1.8 p.a.
  • Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa, South
    Asia Central America gt1.8 p.a.

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World Population Growth by Region
  • Africa 2000-25 projected 2.4 yearly growth (38
    BR 14 DR)
  • Latin America 2000-25 1.3 yearly growth
  • Asia 2000-25 1.1 yearly growth

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World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to
2005
  • Growth 2.3 yearly at peak in 1960.
  • Growth 1.3 2005.
  • Expected growth 0.8 in 2025.
  • See Figure 8-4.

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What is the demographic transition?
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Demographic Transition
  • Period of rapid population growth between
    preindustrial stable population (high BR DR)
    and later modern stable population (low BR DR)
  • DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to
    population explosion

14
Western non-Western patterns
  • After 1650, Western countries increased
    population more rapidly steadily
  • 1930-2005 population growth rate declined
  • Except for China Japan, non-Western countries
    did not experience population growth until after
    1930

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Stage 1 high fertility mortality
  • Most of humankinds history
  • Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry,
    agriculture, trade, transport communication.
  • Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous
  • Fertility must match morality for populations to
    survive
  • Large families a blessing from God

17
Stage 2 declining mortality
  • Agricultural production increased improved
    trade, transport, communication
  • Death from infectious diseases declined
  • Nutrition improved
  • Patterns differ between early DCs LDCs

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Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth
  • Africas fall in life expectancy from the 1990s
    to the first decade of the 21st century is an
    anomaly among LDCs
  • How do you explain this anomaly?

21
How do you explain Africas fall in life
expectancy?
  • Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

22
Stage 3 Declining Fertility
  • Family planning programs
  • Worlds total fertility rate the number of
    children born to the average woman during her
    reproductive years 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987
    (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8)

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Stage 4 Stationary population (low DR BR)
  • Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Belgium,
    Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine,
    Bulgaria.

25
Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic
Development (Malthus vs. Simon)
  • Malthusian view population increases
    geometrically 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.,
    outstripping food supply, increasing
    arithmetically 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
  • Simon more people increase the stock of
    knowledge through additional learning gains,
    compounded by the quickening effect of greater
    competition and total demand spurring necessity
    as the mother for invention. Division of labor
    economies of large-scale production increase as
    markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire
    population policy.

26
Does this just reflect a shift from consumption
of grain to other foods as income increases?
27
UN Development Program (200387)
  • If all the food produced worldwide were
    distributed equally, every person would be able
    to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is
    defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a
    day). . .
  • Hunger is more than just a lack of available
    food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food
    entitlement and deprivations in related essential
    services (health care, education, safe drinking
    water, adequate sanitation).

28
Energy limitations
  • Substantial gains made in food productivity
    during the late 20th century were partly
    dependent on cheap, abundant energy.
  • Will higher real energy prices reduce further
    gains in food productivity?

29
What other costs are there to high fertility
rapid population growth other than diminishing
returns to land?
  • Urbanization congestion
  • Rapid labor force growth increasing
    unemployment (Ch. 9)
  • Higher dependency ratios ratio of nonworking
    population to working-age population (see next
    two slides)

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Econometric studies (p. 296)
  • High fertility rapid population growth hinder
    growth of GNP per capita.
  • Barro (1997) increased resources devoted to
    child rearing instead of production contribute to
    negative relationship between population growth
    rate GNP per capita.

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Previous slide (from p. 302)
  • Poor people, poorly educated people, rural
    people, and those in agriculture have higher
    birth rates than others

35
Population development
  • Bucharest conference Development is the best
    contraceptive
  • Crucial role of education labor force
    participation of women

36
Strategies for reducing fertility
  • Birth control programs
  • Socioeconomic development (see next slide)
  • Development or family planning?
  • - Both are essential to reduce fertility rates
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