PRIMA%20Prototypical%20Policy%20Impacts%20on%20Multifunctional%20Activities%20in%20Rural%20Municipalities

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PRIMAPrototypical Policy Impacts on
Multifunctional Activitiesin Rural
Municipalities
1/11/2008 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7th PCRD,
Environnement
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Aim of the project
To develop downscaling and upscaling methods of
policy impacts on multifunctionality based on
microsimulation and agent based models
I compute my next state
I compute my next state
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Prima modelling approaches

• Micro-simulation
• Simple agents, with rules of evolutions based on
  probabilities of events, or simple decision rules
  (no complex interactions between agents)
• Common approach to couple demography with other
  types of dynamics
• Agent-based models
• More complex decision rules, taking into account
  the interactions between agents
• Heterogeneity of decision rules between agents

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Aim of the project
The models have to deal with the structural
evolution of the populations (appearance,
disappearance and change of agents) regarding
local conditions and policies. European measures
to take into account are build from Structural
Funds (SFs), Cohesion Fund (CF), Preaccession
funds (PAFs)
Cohesion funds sensu lato
Pre-accession Funds
Rural Development Funds
(ERDF, ESF, Cohesion)
(ISPA)
(EAFRD)
Objectives dealing with Competitiveness
Environment
Axis 1 Competitiveness
Axis 2 Environment Land management
Environment Land management
Axis LEADER
Transport
Axis 3 Economic diversification Quality of life
xis "LEADER"
Economic diversification Quality of life
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11 members from 8 countries

1. Cemagref, France, coordinator
2. University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial
   Planning , Germany
3. University of National and World Economy, Sofia,
   Bulgary
4. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept. of
   Economics and Resources Management, Norway
5. Agricultural Economics Research Institute,
   Wageningen UR, The Netherlands
6. Newcastle University, Centre for Rural Economy,
   Royaume-Uni
7. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in
   Central and Eastern Europe, Halle/Saale, Germany
8. University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and
   Business, The Netherlands
9. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The
   Netherlands
10. Research Institute of Agricultural Economics,
    Czech Republic
11. University of Zagreb, Faculty of Agriculture,
    Croatia

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Budget

• Global budget 2 603 430 Euros
• - RTD 2 416 376 Euros
• - management 187 054 Euros
• EU contribution 1 999 335 Euros

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6 case study regions
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Workpackages and main tasks
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LISC agenda

1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality
2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions
3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based
   on the one of municipality
4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the
   pertinent level for a given process
5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible
   futures given by the model

Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders
and extraction of their knowledge on the story
basis.
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A conceptual model

• The modelling work required clear objectives for
  the model. These objectives are defined by the
  scientific questions addressed by the model

• What are the main tendencies at municipality
  level in terms of
• structure of the population
• structure of activities (especially their
  diversity)
• structure of land use

• From a practical point of view, the
  interpretation of the model results has to allow
  to answer to
• How these tendencies induced a particular level
  and form of multifunctionality assessed at the
  municipality level ?
• What is the likely impact on these tendencies of
  different European policies ?

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Objective of micro-simulation model

• model the evolution of
• population (size, distribution of age),
• distribution of activities and housing
• land use distribution (main categories),
• offer of main services,
• in one municipality (or a small set of
  municipalities) on a first stage
• in all rural municipalities of a region for WP4
  on the second stage
• under scenario on
• municipality policy (in particular the use of
  structural funds)
• external context evolution

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Discovering the conceptual model

• Viewed by an individual
• Viewed at the village level
• Viewed at the regional level

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The individual ages in a situated household
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
HAS AN ACTIVITY PATTERN
MEMBER
SITUATED
LIVE
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Conceptual model the village, state variables
Municipality
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The municipality model
Municipality
Reachable outside
access to jobs and services
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The region model
RO2
RO1
M2
M1
RO5
M5
M4
RO3
M3
M6
M7
M8
RO8
RO6
M9
RO7
RO9
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The dynamics

• Individual and household mainly endogeneous
• Village as a policy maker partly endogeneous
  and exogeneous
• Region that is the outside -gt exogeneous

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The model dynamics main loop

• At each time step
• For all municipalities and reachable outside
• apply scenario update jobs, services, land use,
  generate potential migrants
• For all households (including migrants)
• update household (age of individuals, location,
  house and activity, household structure)
• For all municipalities
• update land use, houses, jobs and services
  (according to internal dynamics)

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State variables
State variables
Examples
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State variables and scenarios
State variables
Scenario
Individuals
Households
Land use
Houses
Services
Jobs
Neighbour Municipalities
ListNeighbourMunic
DListNeighbourMunic
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Multi-level scenarios
Regional scenario
Applies to all municipalities of the region
Municipality scenario
Applies to only one municipality.
Municipality set scenario
Applies to a set of municipalities.
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Internal dynamics
State variables
Dynamics
all events see details after
Individuals
split, merge, collapse, birth, move
Households
Land use
Building of new houses by households
Houses
Services
Creation destruction of services connected with
population density and distribution
Jobs
Creation destruction of service jobs
Neighbour Municipalities
ListNeighbourMunic
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Rural individual endogeneous dynamics

• An individual ages. During its life, it

quits the parental household joins a partner quits a partner stops the study to enter on the labour market has a child intentionally remains without working looks for a job looks for a residence loses a job gets a job changes of job without changing village changes of job place moves for changing of residence in the same village moves for changing of village but remains close moves outside asks for services stops using services dies
N23
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Individual dynamics Deciding looking for a job
Labour survey
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Household dynamics moving and working
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LISC agenda

1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality
2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions
3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based
   on the one of municipality
4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the
   pertinent level for a given process
5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible
   futures given by the model

Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders
and extraction of their knowledge on the story
basis.