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New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region Prospects For Electricity Generation

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Title: New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region Prospects For Electricity Generation


1
New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region
Prospects For Electricity Generation
APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert
Group Twenty-Third Meeting 10-13 November 2004
Jaya Singam Rajoo
2
Outline
  • Background
  • Key findings of current study NRE in APEC
    Region
  • NREs Status in APEC Region
  • Scenario analysis results
  • Policy Options
  • New Study - Renewable Electricity in APEC Region
  • Objective
  • Socio-economic benefits of NRE
  • Indicators

3
Background
  • APEC Energy Ministers concern
  • The significance of new and renewable energy has
    been stressed by the APEC Energy Ministers from
    the 1st Energy Ministers Meeting held in Sydney,
    Australia in 1996 to the 6th Meeting held in
    Manila 2004
  • Energy diversification broadens our choice of
    energy sources and technologies and increased
    development and deployment of renewable energy
    technologies.
  • APEC Energy Ministers Meeting, Manila, 2004

4
APERCs Research Activities related to NRE
  • Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (1998)
  • Sustainable Electricity Supply Options for the
    APEC Region (2001)
  • Making the Clean Development Mechanisms Work
    (2001)
  • Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2002)
  • Alternative Development Scenarios for Electricity
    and Transport to 2020 (2002)

5
Scope
  • Wind
  • Solar Photovoltaics
  • Geothermal
  • Biomass
  • Small Hydro

6
Wind current status
  • The cost of wind power in favourable wind regime
    declined by 47 between 1990 and 2000 and may
    decline another 38 by 2010
  • Wind capacity grew 14 annually in APEC and 33
    per year globally from 1993-2003
  • Highest annual growth in New Zealand with 67
    (albeit small base) followed by Japan-54,
    Australia-44, Canada-32 and China-29

7
Photovoltaics current status
  • Annual growth rate of about 33 from 1971-2000
  • Costs are still very high ( US0.60 per kWh) but
    are expected to decline substantially to US0.13
    in 2025 US0.09 by 2050
  • Mostly utilised for off-grid applications (e.g.
    highway lighting, remote villages) except for
    Japan EU economies
  • Distributed rooftop applications huge in Japan
    and will be the next major market by reducing
    balance of system costs by combining PV modules
    with roof tiles

8
Geothermal Installed Capacity
GW
9
Hydro Power
Source WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2001.
10
Scenario Analysis Reference Scenario
Wind would remain the fastest growing technology
Biomass takes substantial share
11
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
40 NRE SHARE BY 2050
EARLY NRE STARTING (2010)
LATE NRE STARTING (2020)
Impact on fuel and CO2 emissions
12
SCENARIO Analysis POWER GENERATION BY FUEL
13
SCENARIO Analysis POWER GENERATION BY FUEL
14
SCENARIO ANALYSIS GHG EMISSIONS
15
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
US 260 billion
16
Conclusions
MARKET DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
COAL
GAS
OIL
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
FULLY COMMERCIAL
BIOMASS
POLICY DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
HYDRO
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
PV
NUCLEAR
17
Policy Options
  • Demand Pull Strategies
  • Financial Incentives
  • Market Facilitation and Investment
  • Rural Electrification Policy
  • Distributed Generation Policy

18
Policy Options
  • Demand Pull Strategies
  • Renewable Portfolio Standards
  • Non-Fossil-Fuel-Obligation (UK, 1990-1997)
  • Feed-in Tariffs (resulted in 8,500MW of installed
    wind from 1991-2001 in Germany)
  • Green certificate (US, Australia, Japan, UK,
    Denmark Belgium)

19
Policy Options
  • Financial incentives
  • Subsidies and rebates (Sunshine Programme
    -Japan, Million solar roofs- US)
  • Tax relief (Investment tax credits, accelerated
    depreciation, production tax credits, property
    tax incentives, personal income tax incentives,
    sales tax incentives, pollution tax exemptions,
    etc)
  • Grants
  • Loans (varies in amount residential,
    commercial and industrial)

20
Policy Options
  • Market facilitation and investment
  • Carbon tax, System Benefits Charge
  • NRE access laws (allows property owners to
    access NRE resources)
  • Infrastructure policy
  • Government procurement
  • Public awareness programme

21
Policy Options
  • Rural Electrification Policy
  • Energy Service Concession
  • Microcredit and Rural Business Development
  • Line extension Analyses

22
Policy Options
  • Distributed Generation Policies
  • Real-time pricing
  • Net metering
  • Interconnection Regulation

23
Conclusions
  • Main Enabling policies
  • Demand pull strategy RPS, Feed-in-Tariff
  • Financial Incentives Various incentives/subsidy,
    tax relief, grants, loans
  • Distributed generation net metering, real time
    pricing
  • Market facilitation SBC, carbon tax, government
    procurement
  • NRE resources to include in national energy
    balance

24
Conclusions
Developing economies i) adopting innovative
financing mechanisms e.g. Worldbank/GEF PERMER
in Argentina ii) developing local manufacturing
capacity for components of NRE technology
like PVs, e.g. China, India, Thailand
iii) removing/reducing subsidies on fossil
fuels to improve NREs competitiveness
25
Conclusions
iv) improve legal and regulatory framework to
address intellectual property rights issues,
as well as improve the tax system to
encourage developed economies to transfer
NRE technology
26
Part II Renewable Electricity in the APEC Region
27
Objectives and Scope
  • Assessing the real cost of electricity from
    renewable sources and conventional fuels
  • Quantifying externalities - emissions from
    electricity generation and its impacts (Health,
    Air pollution, Water and land pollution, Thermal
    pollution, Global warming )
  • Different types of subsidy received by
    conventional energy producer and its impacts

28
Key Issues
  • Real Costs of electricity ?
  • Subsidy for NRE conventional energy
  • Socio-economic benefits of renewable energy
  • Externalities Negative impacts of fossil fuel
    combustion
  • Measuring externalities
  • Modelling renewable energy

29
Indicators
30
Indicators
Source WRI, Indicator Framework Paper, 2003
31
The cost of annual energy subsidies (1995-98, US
billion)
Notes a) Subsidies for electricity in OECD
countries have been attributed to fossil fuels
according the shares. b) Subsidies from
non-payments and bail out operations have not
been attributed to energy sources. Source de
Moor, 2001, and WRI, CAIT (for GDP numbers)
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