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THE ART AND SCIENCE OF IDENTIFYING AND ELIMINATING VULNERABILITIES TO EARTHQUAKES IN A COMMUNITY

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THE ART AND SCIENCE OF IDENTIFYING AND ELIMINATING VULNERABILITIES TO EARTHQUAKES IN A COMMUNITY S BUILT ENVIRONMENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF IDENTIFYING AND ELIMINATING VULNERABILITIES TO EARTHQUAKES IN A COMMUNITY


1
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF IDENTIFYING AND
ELIMINATING VULNERABILITIES TO EARTHQUAKES IN A
COMMUNITYS BUILT ENVIRONMENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
2
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK
  • FLOODS
  • SEVERE WINDSTORMS
  • EARTHQUAKES
  • TSUNAMIS
  • DROUGHTS
  • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  • LANDSLIDES
  • WILDFIRES

3
VULNERABILITIES IN A COMMUNITYS BUILT
ENVIRONMENT CONTROLS THE RISK
RISK
4
A COMMUNITYS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
5
WHAT HISTORY TEACHES
  • CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC,
    HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT AND MANS
    CAPACITY TO ELIMINATE THE VULNERABILITIES

6
INADEQUATE SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS
(I.E., BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS)
  • MEAN
  • 1) INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND
    SHAKING
  • 2) COLLAPSE OF BUILDINGS AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
    LIFELINES

7
CONSEQUENCES OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES
RISK
8
SOME VULNERABILITIES ARE OBVIOUS
9
SOME VULNERABILITIES ARE OBVIOUS
10
SOME VULNERABILITIES ARE OBVIOUS
11
SOME VULNERABILITIES ARE OBVIOUS
  • A UTILITY CORRIDOR IS VULNERABLE TO LOSS OF
    FUNCTION WHEN ROUTED THROUGH SOILS THAT ARE
    SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION.

12
THE REALITY CHECK PROVIDED BY PAST DISASTERS
Source Munich Re and many others

13
CAUSES OF VULNER-ABILITIES
INADEQUATE BUILDING CODES
INADEQUATE LIFELINE STANDARDS
SITING IN LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FAULTING GROUND
FAILURE
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
EARTHQUAKES
INADEQUATE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
DISASTER LABORATORIES
SITING ON SOFT SOILS
INADEQUATE ANCHORAGE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
14
NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS
  • SAN FRANCISCO
  • 1906 EARTHQUAKE FIRE
  • 3,000 CASUALTIES
  • 524 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 180 M INSURED LOSS

15
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16
NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS
  • TOKYO
  • 1923 EARTHQUAKE FIRE
  • 142,807 CASUALTIES
  • 2,800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 590 M INSURED LOSS

17
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18
NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS
  • MANAGUA
  • 1972 EARTHQUAKE
  • 11,000 CASUALTIES
  • 800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 100 M INSURED LOSS

19
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20
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • TANGSHAN
  • 1976 EARTHQUAKE
  • 240,000 CASUALTIES
  • 5,600 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • ---0 M INSURED LOSS

21
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22
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • MEXICO CITY
  • 1985 EARTHQUAKE
  • 9,500 CASUALTIES
  • 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 275 M INSURED LOSS

23
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24
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25
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • LOMA PRIETA (SAN FRANCISCO)
  • 1989 EARTHQUAKE
  • 61 CASUALTIES
  • 5,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 1,000 M INSURED LOSS

26
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29
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA
  • 1994 EARTHQUAKE
  • 61 CASUALTIES
  • 44,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 15,300 M INSURED LOSS

30
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35
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • KOBE, JAPAN
  • 1995 EARTHQUAKE
  • 6,400 CASUALTIES
  • 100,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 3,000 M INSURED LOSS

36
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37
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40
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • IZMET, TURKEY
  • 1999 EARTHQUAKE
  • 17,200 CASUALTIES
  • 12,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • 600 M INSURED LOSS

41
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42
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • BAM, IRAN
  • 2003 EARTHQUAKE
  • 40,000 CASUALTIES
  • ?000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • --00 M INSURED LOSS

43
2003 Bam, Iran Earthquake
44
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA
  • 2004 EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI
  • 240,000 CASUALTIES
  • 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • ?--00 M INSURED LOSS

45
2004 BANDA ACHE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
46
2004 BANDA ACHE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
47
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
  • SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA
  • 2008 EARTHQUAKE
  • 80,000 CASUALTIES
  • 13,300 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
  • --00 M INSURED LOSS

48
SICHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE INADEQUATE BUILDING
CODE
49
TWENTY-ONE DAYS LATER
  • 45,690,000 people were affected by the disaster.

50
HAITI EARTHQUAKE INADEQUATE BUILDING CODE
JANUARY 12, 2010
51
TSUNAMI JAPANMARCH 12, 2011
52
EVERY COMMUNITY CAN MAKE ITS FUTURE BETTER THAN
ITS PAST
  • GOAL 1 LEARN FROM THE PAST
  • GOAL 2 REDUCE COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES THAT
    INCREASE RISK FOR PEOPLE, PROPERTY, AND
    INFRASTRUCTURE

53
REALITY CHECK
  • The CEO is the only individual in the community
    who can bring all the stakeholders to the table
    to develop a realistic action plan and ensure
    its implementation.

54
REALITY CHECK
  • Professionals have to assist the CEO develop a
    book of knowledge on past and potential disasters
    affecting the community and an action plan for
    vulnerability reduction.

55
STEPS
  • Key Component 1 Identification of Hazards and
    the Vulnerabilities of the Communitys Built
    Environment

56
STEPS
  • Key Component 2 Loss Estimation that can be
    Correlated with specific Vulnerabilities

57
STEPS
  • Key Component 3 A Prevention/Mitigation
    Plan for a) Life Safety Protection, b) the
    Prevention of Physical Damage, and c) the
    Reduction of Financial Loss

58
STEPS
  • Key Component 4 A Reliable Communications
    Network

59
STEPS
  • Key Component 5
  • A Chain of Command

60
THE ULTIMATE REALITY
  • The brunt of the expense and hardship of most
    disasters is borne by households, local
    businesses, and local governments, NOT
    insurance.

61
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS OF FACT
  • WHAT LEVEL OF CASUALTIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN A
    FUTURE EVENT?
  • WHAT LEVEL OF ECONOMIC LOSSES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
    IN A FUTURE EVENT?

62
MAKING THE FUTURE BETTER THAN THE PAST
PERIOD OF INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION
PERSON-ALIZE
ACT
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