Slajd 1

1
QPF Results of sensitivity studies for Polish
cases.
Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska,Witold
Interewicz
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management,
Warsaw,Poland
9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21 September 2007,
Athens (Greece)
2
Our activity in QPF for Poland

• Selection and description of experimental days 3
  May, 4 May, 10 June, 9 August 2005
• QPF sensitivity experiment (model 3.19 run for 21
  experiments, model 4.0 run for 6 experiments,
  4 days).
• Post-processing and statistics.
• Results and conclusions.

3
Experimental Model Domain

• Domain size (in nodes - longitude, latitude) (
  1200 , 1200 ),
• subdomain for Poland ( 31151 , 51151 ).
• Domain size (in rotated coordinates - longitude,
  latitude) ( 0.0 12.4375 , -4.1 8.3375 ),
• sudomain for Poland ( 1.875 9.375 , -0.975
  5.275 ).
• Domain size (in rotated coordinates - lower left,
  upper right corner) ( (0.0,-4.1) ,
  (12.4375,8.3375) ),
• subdomain for Poland ( (1.875,-0.975) ,
  (9.375,5.275) )
• Horizontal step (degrees) 0.0625 (7km),
• 40 levels.
• Rotated North Pole coordinates (longitude,
  latitude) -170.0 , 40.0.

4
Selection of cases.

• The precipitation over Poland is
  overpredicted. The overestimation is much bigger
  for heavy precipitation especially in summer.The
  major criteria used to choosing the events were
  the overestimation of maximum values or false
  prediction of precipitation occurrence. The four
  precipitation events were selected , dominated by
  grid scale precipitation .

5
3 May 2005
Model 4.0 CTRL
Observation
Synoptic situation
6
4 May 2005
Observation
Model 4.0 CTRL
Synoptic situation
7
10 June 2005
Observation
Model 4.0 CTRL
Synoptic situation
8
9 August 2005
Model 4.0 CTRL
Observation
Synoptic situation
9
Average precipitation experiments 0-20
10
Maximum precipitation experiments 0-20
11
Total, gride scale and convective , maximum and
average precipitation, experiments A1-A6
3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 3 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005 4 May 2005
MaxFOR MaxCON MaxGSP AverFOR AverCON AverGSP CON GSP MaxFOR MaxCON MaxGSP AverFOR AverCON AverGSP CON GSP
Exp.A1 CTRL4.0 88.7 34.9 86.4 10.6 3.9 6.7 36.8 62.2 61.1 17.0 61.1 11.8 2.3 9.5 19.5 80.5
Exp.A2 4.0QV090RK 36.0 19.4 31.5 8.4 3.7 4.7 44.1 55.9 66.3 11.4 64.4 8.4 2.0 6.4 23.8 76.2
Exp.A3 4.0CONkfb 49.5 19.1 44.2 8.2 5.4 2.8 65.9 34.1 53.3 17.5 51.6 9.4 2.6 6.8 27.7 72.3
Exp.A4 4.0QV090RKCONkfb 41.2 24.7 29.7 7.5 4.8 2.7 64.0 36.0 38.0 12.3 36.0 8.1 2.6 5.5 32.1 67.9
Exp.A5 4.0CONmod 69.4 13.9 66.3 10.1 2.3 7.8 22.8 77.2 86.7 8.7 86.6 12.5 0.9 11.6 7.2 92.8
Exp.A64.0QV090RKCONmod 41.5 8.5 36.5 6.7 1.6 5.1 23.9 76.1 59.5 3.8 58.0 8.3 0.6 7.7 7.2 92.8
                               
12
Total, gride scale and convective , maximum and
average precipitation, experiments A1-A6
10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 10 June 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005 9 August 2005
MaxFOR MaxCON MaxGSP AverFOR AverCON AverGSP CON GSP MaxFOR MaxCON MaxGSP AverFOR AverCON AverGSP CON GSP
Exp.A1 CTRL4.0 123.2 21.2 118.6 17.1 1.8 15.3 10.5 89.5 84.1 6.4 83.8 4.3 0.9 3.4 20.9 79.1
Exp.A2 4.0QV090RK 67.3 17.4 67.3 11.0 1.3 9.7 11.8 88.2 65.8 4.1 65.5 3.1 0.4 2.7 12.9 87.1
Exp.A3 4.0CONkfb 100.7 24.2 94.4 15.3 3.3 11.9 22.2 77.8 99.5 10.2 89.3 4.0 0.9 3.1 22.5 77.5
Exp.A4 4.0QV090RKCONkfb 60.3 26.3 59.5 10.2 2.4 7.7 24.5 75.5 77.0 9.5 69.1 3.2 0.8 2.4 25 75
Exp.A5 4.0CONmod 121.3 12.4 119.0 17.5 0.8 16.7 4.6 95.4 93.2 2.6 93.2 4.1 0.4 3.7 9.8 90.2
Exp.A64.0QV090RKCONmod 76.0 8.3 75.4 11.4 0.5 10.9 4.4 95.6 61.6 3.1 61.6 3.0 0.2 2.8 6.7 93.3
13
Results of experiments.
CTRL 3.19 CTRL 3.19 CTRL 4.0 CTRL 4.0
Average Maximum Average Maximum
3 May underpredicted overpredicted good overpredicted
4 May good overpredicted good overpredicted
10 June overpredicted overpredicted overpredicted overpredicted
9 August overpredicted overpredicted overpredicted overpredicted
The best results
Version 3.19 3.19 4.0 4.0
Date Average Maximum Average Maximum
3 May Rktp Rksl3 Rkbott Rktp Rkbott Mikro1 CTRL CONmod QV090RK
4 May CTRL QV110 RLAM01 LFsl3 Micro1 Oro Micro2 CTRL CONmod QV090RK
10 June WSO080 DT20 QV080RKCONkfb QV090RKCONmod
9 August Rksl3 Micro1 Oro Micro2 CONkfb QV090RKCONmod