TSUNAMI HAZARD ZONING FOR

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Russian Academy of Sciences Far Eastern
Branch Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics
TSUNAMI HAZARD ZONING FOR THE SOUTHERN KURIL
ISLANDS
Kaystrenko V., Khramushin V., Zolotukhin D.
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Tsunami sources distribution along the Kuril
Islands zone
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Area of investigation
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CONTENT

• Step 1.
• Creating the probability model for tsunami
  activity using natural data
• Step 2
• Numerical modeling of the tsunamis
• Step 3
• Tsunami wave form re-calculation through the
  shelf up to the shore line
• Step 4
• Calculation of the H for all the coastal points
• Step 5
• Creating the tsunami zoning scheme

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• Step 1.
• Creating the probability model for tsunami
  activity using natural data

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Probability to have n tsunamis during time period
t at present place with the wave height exceeding
given threshold value h, is given by the
formula The average frequency f(h) as a
function of "threshold" h is named the
recurrence function. This function is monotonous
decreasing and at hgt0.5 m is well approximated by
exponent Regional parameter ƒ is the frequency
of great tsunami and slowly changing along the
coast, and H is characteristic height of
tsunami for every coastal point. The last
parameter is very changeable along the coast
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The least square method can be used to estimate
the model parameters ƒ and H together with its
dispersions
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Empirical tsunami recurrence functions for the
main points on the Southern Kuril Islands
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Tsunami activity parameters for three coastal
points with the best sets of natural data
Settlements Ln f f, 1/year s(ln(f) H, m s (H)/H
Malo-kurilskoye -1.77 0.17 0.23 2.1 0.34
Yuzhno-Kurilsk -1.65 0.19 0.31 1.32 0.36
Burevestnik -1.71 0.18 0.30 1.74 0.37
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• The values of great tsunami frequencies are
  close, because all great tsunami occur in all
  points of the region
• Because the frequency of great tsunami can be
  considered one and the same for all region of the
  Southern Kuril Island, this allows creating and
  analyzing the common model for the Southern Kuril
  region, including 18 points with common frequency
  of great tsunami
• ƒ0.17 1/year
• with "relative error" s (ln(ƒ) 0.13 for the
  region .

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• Step 2
• Numerical modeling of the tsunamis
• 1958 (Iturup), 1960 (Chile), 1963 (Urup), 1969
  (Shikotan),
• 1994 (Shikotan) creating tsunami activity in this
  region

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Bathimetry area combined with Global Land-30.
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Step 3 Tsunami wave form re-calculation through
the shelf up to the shore line
Model 1
Model 2
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T 2 L /kg 2L / gH - travel time from
artificial wall to the coast

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N.Shuto's factor for quasi monochrome waves
R - wave amplitude on the shore line in the 1st
model, a - wave amplitude near the artificial
wall in the 2nd model
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Step 4 Calculation of the H for all the coastal
points
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Parameters of tsunami activity for main points of
the Southern Kuril Island with common value of
frequency of great tsunami ƒ0.17 1/year with
"relative error" s (ln(ƒ) 0.13 for the region
Settlements and places H, m using natural data H, m calculated
Sentyabr'skii 2.69 1.06
Burevestnik 1.87 1.5
Kurilsk 0.57 0.5
Lovtsova cape 1.58 1.5
Vinai river 2.18 1.8
Kosmodem'yanskoe 1.15 1.7
Yuzhno-Kurilsk 1.54 1.2
Sernovodsk 1.42 1.1
Zelenyi Is. 1.82 1.76
Yury Is. 1.24 0.7
Polonskogo Is. 1.46 1.6
Correlation coefficient r 0.93
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CONCLUSIONS

• The given model allowed to calculate the
  frequency of strong tsunami ƒ 0.17 1/year for
  all region of the Southern Kuril Islands with the
  considerably small relative error s (ln (ƒ)
  0.13.
• In the frames of this model we received the
  values H for all the concidered points with
  their dispersions.
• All these parameters are tsunami activity
  parameters based on the measured tsunami heights.

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• Step 5
• Creating the tsunami zoning scheme

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Thank
You !