Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011

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Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations Trace gases Temperature, land and ocean Precipitation Sea level Attribution Models and predictions – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011


1
AnthropoceneIntroduction to Meteorology, spring
2011
  • Observations
  • Trace gases
  • Temperature, land and ocean
  • Precipitation
  • Sea level
  • Attribution
  • Models and predictions
  • Uncertainties

2
Human activities have changed the composition of
the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
Watts steam engine Begin industrial period
3
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
4
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5
diurnal temperature range
Reference Interval
6
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7
Precipitation patterns have changed
8
Sea Levels have risen
9
Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused
by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of
land ice and ice sheets
10
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11
Atmospheric Window
290 K
  • Recall
  • Molecules absorb
  • different radiation
  • wavelengths.
  • 2) Black body
  • radiation depends
  • on temperature of
  • object observed.
  • 2) Wiens law -
  • Max wavelength (µm)
  • 3000/T(K)

12
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13
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14
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15
Svante Arrhenius (1859 -1927)
  • Swedish
  • 1884 PhD dissertation electro-chemistry did not
    impress advisor, 150 pages, 85 theses.
  • 1896 Suggested that CO2 could warm the planet,
    from his work on ice ages. Emission of CO2 may
    prevent future ice ages.
  • 1903 Nobel prize in chemistry for work in his
    dissertation. Most of his theses would be
    unquestioned today

16
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17
Intergovernmental panel on climate change
(IPCC)Established by WMO and UNEP and confirmed
by UN general assembly December 1988 Four
reports issued so far
  • 1990 human emissions are increasing atmospheric
    greenhouse gases, resulting increase 0.3 C per
    decade 21st century.
  • 1995 discernible human influence on global
    climate
  • 2001 surface temperature projected to increase
    1.4 - 5.8 C 1990 -2100, and sea level to rise by
    0.1 - 0.9 meters
  • 2007 (Nobel peace prize) Climate warming
    unequivocal. Most increase in global temperatures
    since mid-20th century is (gt90) due to increase
    in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • The fifth one is underway. 831 authors selected
    from 3000 nominations. 3-4 reviewers for each
    chapter.

18
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19
Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years
is attributable to human activities
20
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21
More adverse than beneficial impacts on
biological and socioeconomic systems are projected
22
Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
23
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others
drier with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
24
Initially increased agricultural productivity in
some mid-latitude regions reduction in the
tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a
few degrees
2020s 2050s 2080s
25
Uncertainties
  • Changes in atmospheric water vapor
  • Changes in cloudiness
  • Changes in albedo
  • Carbon budgets
  • Aerosol particles
  • Direct effects
  • Impact on clouds
  • Black carbon

26
There are fast and slow processes in the carbon
cycle
27
Humans are perturbing the carbon cycle
Atmosphere
The KP seeks to reduce total emissions by about
0.2
This is the greenhouse problem
3.3
750
62.3
Estimated Fossil Deposits
6.3
About 16,000
60
1.6
Plants
Driven by fossil fuel emissions
500
Soil
90
92.3
2000
and land clearing
Oceans
39,000
UnitsGt C for stores Gt C y-1 for fluxes
The oceans and land vegetation are currently
taking up 4.6 Gt C per year
28
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