Public Opinion

1
Public Opinion

• Objectives
• Examine term public opinion determine why its
  so hard to define.
• Describe factors that shape public opinion.
• Bell Ringer
• Going beyond the simple explanation of cynicism,
  speculate about the reasons for the apathy most
  Americans feel toward their government and
  officials and their low levels of knowledge about
  both.
• Agenda
• Public Opinion
• Homework
• Herman Cains 9-9-9 plan
• Find two articles one supporting and one opposing
  the plan
• Summarize the plan and discuss the pros and cons
  of the plan
• Chapter 6 Quiz 11/01

2
Public Opinion

• Objectives
• Examine the term public opinion and determine why
  it is
• so hard to define.
• Describe factors that shape public opinion.
• Bell Ringer
• Political scientist V.O. Key, jr. , once
  described public opinion as those expressions
  that governments find it prudent to heed. Do
  you agree with Keys definition? Explain your
  answer.
• Agenda
• End of the quarter dates
• Public Opinion
• Cains 9-9-9 plan
• Homework
• Chapter 6 Quiz 10-31 Bell Ringers due 11-02
• Voter Perspectives due 11-02 TEST Unit 2 11-09
• Unit 2 Essay 11-11

3
Public Opinion

• Objectives
• Examine the term public opinion and determine why
  it is
• so hard to define.
• Describe factors that shape public opinion.
• Bell Ringer
• What do you believe are at least three reasons
  younger people are less likely to vote than older
  people? How would you remedy the problems of
  such low voter turnout among your peers.
• Agenda
• Public Opinion
• Cains 9-9-9 plan
• Homework
• Chapter 6 Quiz Bell Ringers due Wednesday
• Voter Perspectives due Friday TEST Unit 2 11-09
• Unit 2 Essay 11-11

4
Political culture The ideas, beliefs, and
values about citizens and government held by a
population.
Political Ideology A coherent set of beliefs
about politics, public policy, and public purpose
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What is public opinion?

• Views individuals hold about government, public
• policy, society, and culture.
•    Major part of todays American political
  landscape.

• Reflects how people would like government to
• act.

6
What is public opinion?

• Since 1789, framers and most public officials
  have
• had no formal or agreed upon way of
  determining or responding to public opinion.

4. May be based on Facts about problems and
solutions Emotions and crises Beliefs people
adopt through process of political socialization
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Characteristics of Public Opinion
Latency an opinion is held but not expressed
Intensity/saliency how strongly people feel on
issues 1. NRA represents a minority position.
But the intensity of their opposition to gun
control is high. Many members determine who
theyll vote for in part due to a candidates
position on gun control. This has made them one
of Americas most powerful lobbying organizations.
Stability How little, or how much, public
opinion changes over time
8
Political socialization

• Process through which a person acquires
  knowledge, a set of political attitudes and
  orientations, and forms values and opinions about
  the political system and other social issues.

9
Agents of Socialization
U.S. is one of the worlds most diverse
countries, this makes it especially complex.
Public opinion often skewed to a particular point
of view (most in U.S. favor a capitalist
economic system)
Other public opinion can be almost equally
divided between two extreme positions, generally
little middle ground on these issues (Pro-life
vs. pro- choice)
10
Family

• Single most important socializing agent for most
  Americans

• At home, kids learn basic attitudes toward
  authority, property, rules of behavior

Most students see their views as being
independent of their parents. In reality, there
is still more political agreement between family
generations
11
School and Peers
  Governments use schools in their attempt to
instill a commitment to the basic values of the
system.

• Schools give children formal knowledge they will
  need to be good citizens

Schools are also centers of informal learning
about other groups in society.
12
Benevolent Leader

• Political socialization phenomenon where children
  learn that political figures of the U.S. are
  well-meaning, honest, and trustworthy early in
  their childhood.

• Childrens stories of George Washington and
• Abraham Lincoln

13
Mass Media
      Referred to as the new parent
1. T.V. displaces parents as main source of
information as kids get older 2.
T.V. most common source of political
information
14
Mass Media
     Selective perception notion that
people tend to see only what they want
to see

• Selective retention idea that people
  
• remember what they agree with

15
Social Groups Political efficacy is the feeling
that
     one can understand government and
effectively participate in it
government will respond to citizens
demands
dependent on the factors below
1. more important seems to be education
the higher the education, the higher the
efficacy.
16
Effects of Diversity

• Demographic patterns determined every ten years
• when the census is conducted

17
Religion

•    Generally Jews more liberal than Catholics,
• who are more liberal than Protestants

•     Jews and Black Protestants tend to be the
• most liberal

•    White Protestants tend to be more
  conservative
• (especially in the south)

•     Many agree with separation of church and
  state

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Ethnicity

•    Blacks tend to be more liberal

•     Asians and Hispanics are a little less
  liberal

•     Blacks and Asians are more likely to vote
  than whites of their same income level

•     Cubans tend to be more conservative

Many immigrants arrive from all over the world
each year (government allows 630,000 new legal
immigrants per year)
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Ethnicity

• The Immigrant Society
• United States is a nation of immigrants.
• Three waves of immigration
• Northwestern Europeans (prior to late 19th
  Century)
• Southern and eastern Europeans (late 19th and
  early 20th centuries)
• Hispanics and Asians (late 20th century)

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Ethnicity

• The American Melting Pot
• Melting Pot the mixing of cultures, ideas, and
  peoples that has changed the American nation
• Minority Majority the emergence of a
  non-Caucasian majority
• Political culture is an overall set of values
  widely shared within a society.

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The American People
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Gender

•     Women favor government programs promoting
• equality more than men.

•     More likely to support government social
• welfare programs, less likely to support
  increases in military spending

•     No set gender generalizations, differences
• between men/women typically issue specific.

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Age

•     Younger people typically vote less, not
  really
• involved in/knowledgeable about politics.

•     Senior citizens population growing tend to
  be
• vocal and lobby for particular issues

•     1.   Social Security System is second only
  to
• national defense as Americas most costly
• public policy.

24
Age

• The Graying of America
• Fastest growing age group is over 65
• Potential drain on Social Security
• Pay as you go system
• In 1942, 42 workers per retiree
• In 2040, 2 workers per retiree

25
Age

• Political Learning Over a Lifetime
• Aging increases political participation and
  strength of party attachment.

26
Region

•     Mountain states and Midwest generally more
  conservative

•     Eastern and Western states typically more
  liberal

•      Southerners generally more conservative
  (because of civil rights issues)

27
Region

• The Regional Shift
• Population shift from east to west
• Reapportionment the process of reallocating
  seats in the House of Representatives every 10
  years on the basis of the results of the census

28
Education

•     In general, the higher the level of
  education attained, the higher ones awareness
  and understanding of politics and political
  issues

•     More education an individual receives, the
  more likely that person is to hold liberal
  political positions

•      More education more likely to vote, more
  tolerant of opposing opinions

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Income

•     Divides people on their opinions higher
  income, more likely to value freedom and less
  government control

•     Higher income often more supportive of
  liberal goals like racial sexual equality

•     Poor white voters LEAST likely to vote in a
  typical election

30
Personal Beliefs

•      Americans more me-oriented than ever

    Agree with things that benefit us,
disagree with those that dont
    When policies dont affect us
personally, hard for us to form an opinion
31
Political Knowledge

•     Everyone has opinions on politics, many
  people, however short on facts

1. Speaker of the House
2. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court
3. Where other countries are located (Iraq,
China, El Salvador)
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Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information
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Cues From Leaders

•     With lack of knowledge public opinion can be
  highly changeable at times

1. Rapid shifts are common when the public
doesnt have much information or when the
information that they have is bad.
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Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information
35
Public Opinion Polls
Can be measured in different ways and the
accuracy of the opinion depends on the
measurement
Public opinion is measured regularly through
elections. Only measures it indirectly since
voters are not always for, but sometimes against
a candidate.
36
Public Opinion Polls

• 4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend Product X.
• If the election were held tomorrow, 43 of likely
  voters would vote for Roberta Jones.
• 85 of all Americans prefer Brand Q over Brand Y.
• 66 of parents surveyed think their children
  watch too much television.

Where might you here or read a quote like this?
What types of groups would be interested in
information like this?
What are some different ways groups could use
this information?
How might you be influenced if you read this
quote?
37
Public Opinion Polls
Modern-day polling tends to be moderately accurate
John Q. Public thought to be the average man or
woman on the streets. Term used by the media
and pollsters when making blanket statements
about the general opinion in the U.S.
38
Random/Representative Sample Polls

•    Everyone in the target population has an
  equal probability of being selected

•    Questions used are non-biased do not give
  respondents any clues about what answers poll is
  looking for.

• Many polls conducted through telephone and
• computer surveys

39
Telephone Polling
  Assuming the U.S. adult population is
targeted group, sample size usually between
1,200 and 1,500 respondents
1. As polling techniques become more
advanced, typical sample sizes decreasing
   Apply a sampling error (typically about /- 3
points)
1. Poll results give candidate 45 of vote.
Actual results could be 42 or 48
40
Nonrandom Polls
Not reliable representations of peoples true
opinions. However

• Straw polls unscientific attempts to measure
  public opinion. Often used by print and
  television news media, internet, even members of
  Congress.

1. Results not reliable because there is no
guarantee that the group or sample answering
question is representative of whole population.
41
Nonrandom Polls
Not reliable representations of peoples true
opinions. However
   Many candidates rely on nonrandom polls
quickly conducted by their party.
  Members of Congress often rely on letters,
phone calls, e-mails to indicate public
opinion on some issues.
1. Only represents views of people motivated
enough to contact legislators.
42
Nonrandom Polls
Way questions are worded can significantly
influence reflected opinions.
1.  Slanting questions to get the answers
they want.
43
Political PollsPush Polls
  Attempt to lead subject to a specified
conclusion
   Some designed to push subjects away from
candidates by linking them to negative
events or traits in the question
44
Political PollsTracking Polls
Continuous surveys that enable candidates
and politicians to chart daily rise and fall in
popularity
   Small samples
   Reliability problems but may be a decent
measure of trends
45
Political PollsExit Polls
Used by media to find out how people voted
why
   Not random or representative, but if a large
enough proportion of voters is polled, responses
can form basis for some generalizations.
   Reliability problems but may be a decent
measure of trends
46
Use of Polls
  Informing the public
  Informing the candidate
  Informing office-holders
  Making election night predictions

• Some officials closely follow public opinion and
  use it in making policy decisions

• Others dont trust it because it can change
  quickly and dramatically

47
Role of PollsSupporters
   Allows people to express their approval or
disapproval of government
   Tool for democracy by which policymakers
can keep in touch with changing opinions
48
Shortcomings of Polls
In 1936, a Literary Digest poll underestimated
the vote for FDR by 19 because of flawed
polling.
They drew their sample from phone books and motor
vehicle records. During the Great Depression,
people on those lists typically above the average
income level, and therefore not representative of
the public.
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Shortcomings of Polls
  Sampling error
  Limited respondent options (narrow answer
base)
  Lack of information (respondents dont
understand question)
   Intensity (learn peoples positions, but
not how strong or weak it is)
   Elitism (deliberative polls have been
accused of bias)
50
Role of PollsCritics
   Makes politicians more concerned with
following than leading.
   Political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg
argues polls weaken democracy because they let
government think that it has taken public
opinion into account when only passive (often
ill-informed) opinions have been counted.
  Bandwagon effect possible tendency of
some voters or convention delegates to support
the candidate who is leading in
the polls and seems most likely to win.
51
Role of PollsCritics
   Drown out actual issues during elections.
   Pollsters get results they want by
altering wording of the questions.
52
Telephone Polling
Cluster sampling groups drawn by
geographical divisions (counties,
districts)

• Random digit dialing people over eighteen with
  
• birthdays in a certain month are asked to
  complete
• a questionnaire

53
Telephone Polling
  Quota sample less reliable polling method
in which members of a particular group are
interviewed in proportion to the groups
percentage of the population as a whole.
   More costly than nonrandom polls, but
results are more reliable
   Apply a sampling error (typically about /-
3 points)
1. Poll results give candidate 45 of vote.
Actual results could be 42 or 48