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Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: jsmith Last modified by: Joel Smith Created Date: 2/12/2011 8:51:03 PM Document presentation format: On-screen Show (4:3) – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty


1
Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of
Uncertainty
  • Joel B. Smith
  • Stratus Consulting Inc.
  • Boulder CO
  • Jsmith_at_stratusconsulting.com
  • July 30, 2014

2
What is Certain
  • The climate IS changing
  • At best we know the direction of change in some
    key variables
  • Magnitudes are uncertain

3
Would be Best if We Could React to Climate Change
  • Design systems to be responsive to changes in the
    environment
  • Flexibility
  • Adaptive Management
  • That leave us exposed to events that cause
  • Catastrophic impacts
  • Irreversible impacts
  • Missed opportunities

4
One of the Challenges of Proactive Adaptation
  • Waiting for the perfect forecast

5
One of the Challenges of Adaptation
  • Waiting for the perfect forecast
  • Ive been doing this for 25 years and have not
    seen the projections narrow

6
We Get Wrapped Up in This Notion of Optimization
  • Optimization is very difficult considering
    uncertainties about climate and future
    socio-economic conditions
  • We should think about reducing vulnerability to
    climate at a reasonable price
  • Take the steps that are prudent and affordable

7
In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought
to be
8
In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought
to be
  • But many adaptation decisions are discrete and
    that makes them easier to implement

9
Culverts I
10
Culverts II
11
Left Hand Canyon
12
Considerations
  • Benefits
  • Costs
  • Feasibility

13
Adaptation You Do What You Can
  • Plan for more intense heat waves
  • Plan for sea level rise
  • Plan for bigger floods
  • Plan for more intense droughts
  • Make the affordable and prudent investments that
    buy additional protection or resilience

14
(No Transcript)
15
Failure IS an Option
16
Questions?
  • jsmith_at_stratusconsulting.com
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