Understanding a Development Miracle

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Social Economic Development
Understanding a Development Miracle Demographic
Transition in China
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• China has a huge population, but a weak
  economic foundation with relatively inadequate
  resources per capita. These are its basic
  national conditions. Many contradictions and
  problems in China's economic and social
  development are closely associated with the issue
  of population, which has become the key factor
  and primary problem restricting China's economic
  and social development.
• what should we pay attention to when we
  discuss the population and economic growth in
  China?

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• Basic Statistics on National
  Population Census in
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  1953,1964,1981,1990,2000,2010

item 1953 1964 1981 1990 2000 2010
Total population (million) 594.35 694.58 1008.18 1133.68 1265.83 1370.54
male 307.99 356.52 519.44 584.95 653.55 686.8
female 286.36 338.06 488.74 548.73 612.28 652.8
Average family household size 4.33 4.43 4.41 3.96 3.44 3.10
Population by age group()
0-14 36.28 40.69 33.59 27.69 22.89 16.60
15-64 59.31 55.75 61.50 66.74 70.15 74.60
65 and over 4.41 3.56 4.91 5.57 6.96 8.8
Population by ethnicity()
Han 93.94 94.24 93.32 91.96 91.59 91.51
Ethnic Minorities 6.06 5.76 6.68 8.04 8.41 8.4
Population by residence()
urban population 13 18 21 26 36 49.68
rural population 87 82 79 74 64 50.32
Life expectancy (year old) 67.77 68.55 71.40 72.5
male 66.28 66.84 69.63 NA
female 69.27 70.47 73.33 NA
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• Family Scale
• persons /household
• A family of three (30.68) and a family of
  two(24.17) are the most important family forms
  in China in 2006.
• High fertility rate, low death rate, high
  growth rate
• Low fertility rate, low death rate, low growth
  rate

YEAR 1955 1960 1965 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010
Persons 4.47 4.50 4.55 4.74 4.61 4.34 3.97 3.70 3.44 3.10
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Birth Rate, Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of
Population in China

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• international
  comparison of total fertility rate

Time World Developed countries Developing countries China
1950-1955 5.02 2.84 6.17 6.22
1955-1960 4.96 2.82 6.02 5.59
1960-1965 4.97 2.69 6.03 5.72
1965-1970 4.91 2.37 6.02 6.06
1970-1975 4.49 2.12 5.44 4.86
1975-1980 3.92 1.91 4.65 3.32
1980-1985 3.58 1.85 4.15 2.55
1985-1990 3.38 1.83 3.84 2.46
1990-1995 3.04 1.68 3.41 1.92
1995-2000 2.79 1.55 3.10 1.78
2000-2005 2.65 1.56 2.90 1.70
2005-2010 2.55 1.59 2.75 1.74
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• Honor Mother
• Woman has more than 10 children in 1950s.
• "the more sons, the more happiness"

Chairman MAO said Many hands make light work.
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• Family Plan basic state policy to carry out
  family planning and population control and to
  improve the life quality of the population from
  1979.
• Late Marriage, Later Childbearing
• One Family, One Childpolicy has been
  restricted to ethnic Han Chinese living in urban
  areas. Citizens living in rural areas and
  minorities living in China are not subject to the
  law. The policy has prevented 250 million births
  from its implementation to 2000.

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• Now that millions of sibling-less people in
  China are now young adults in or nearing their
  child-bearing years, a special provision allows
  millions of couples to have two children legally.
  If a couple is composed of two people without
  siblings, then they may have two children of
  their own, thus preventing too dramatic of a
  population decrease.
• What s your opinion about family plan in
  China?

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• Question
• what is your opinion about the impact of
  family scale on Chinese economic growth?
• (1) family scale and consumption
• (2) family scale and education
• (3) family scale and elderly supporting

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• family scale and consumption
• (1) Child is the core of the family.
• (2) Parents responsibility and expenditure
  for children
• Parents believe the consumption style of
  children is linked to their social class in the
  future.
• The spending for children accounts for a large
  proportion of family expenditure.
• University tuition fee has increased by 2500
  in the last 16 years. In the western provinces,
  it will take a familys ten-year income to
  support one child to finish the college
  education.
• Parents also responsible for childrens
  wedding, housing expenditure, grandchildren
  nursing etc.

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• The features of the 80s and 90s
• Early maturity
• Individualism
• Materialism
• Spending not saving
• Seeking fashion and taste

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• Aging population

The dramatic fertility decline and improved
longevity over the past two decades are causing
China's population to age at one of the fastest
rates ever recorded. As late as 25 years ago,
China was concerned it had too many children to
support. Today, however, China faces the opposite
problem as a result of the success of its
"one-child" policy, the country faces the
prospect of having too few children to support a
rapidly aging population.
2000 2050

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• Getting old before getting rich?
• Age structure of Chinas population of 5 national
  population census

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• Age Dependency Ratio of Population
• 
  
  

year Gross dependency ratio Children dependency ratio Old dependency ratio
1953 1982 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 68.6 62.6 49.8 48.8 42.6 38.8 37.9 37.4 61.2 54.6 41.5 39.6 32.6 28.1 26.8 26.0 7.4 8.0 8.3 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.3
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population Pyramids, China 2000 and 2050
2000 2050

Source World Population Prospects The 2004
Revision (2005).
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Percentage of Older Adults (Age 65) in China,
1950-2050
Source World Population Prospects The 2004
Revision (2005).
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• Comparative study of population aging

Country Year Year Year Years elapsed Years elapsed Years elapsed
Country 7 10 14 7-10 10-14 7-14
China Japan England Switzerland USA France 2001 1970 1930 1935 1945 1865 2017 1985 1950 1960 1975 1940 2027 1994 1975 1985 2010 1980 16 15 20 25 30 75 10 9 25 25 35 40 26 24 45 50 65 115
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• Regional difference of aging population

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• Source of living expense for aging
  population
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Province Themselves Son Daughter Grandchild Relatives Government Insurance others
Sichuan Hubei Heilongjiang Gansu 39.0 40.2 35.3 23.0 42.4 41.2 43.8 57.5 11.7 12.0 14.0 12.0 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.5 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.8 0 0 0.5 0.7 1.9 1.2
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• Discussion
• whats the impact of population aging on
  Chinas economic growth?

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• The future aging policy should emphasis

• improving the income of elderly and pension
  plans,
• ??health care policy,
• ??social services,
• ??social participation of the elderly,
• ??developing the market for the elderly,
• ??Improve administrative management.

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• Assignment
• Describe population aging in your country and
  comment on the aging policy.
• Do you have some recommendation for population
  aging in China?

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• Gender Ratio Imbalance

The missing girls in China
One of the most worrisome effect of the birth
planning program is the missing girls
phenomenon. As of 2004, there are 16 million more
males than females under 30 years old in China.
Previously, the 2000 census showed a
disproportionate male-female ration of 119100,
with some areas as high as 135100, high above
the international average of 105100. The number
of male bachelors could reach 40 million by 2020.
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• What has caused the dangerous gender imbalance?
• social environment policy environment and
  culture environment. Son preference.
• economic growth and pension.
• family needs
• sex-selective abortion

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• Qianjin(??) in China

The status of women increased quickly in big
cities. Many families with high education prefer
daughters to sons.
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• Question
• Is there gender imbalance in your country?
• Whats the impact of gender imbalance on the
  economy?

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• Population shifting
• At the beginning of China's reform and
  opening-up in 1978, the shifting population in
  the country was only 2 million. The total
  shifting population in 2005 was 146.86 million,
  including 76.39 million young people aged between
  14 and 35. 
• Eastern China and big Chinese cities have
  benefited greatly from shifting population, but
  large shifting population has also caused many
  environmental and resource crises in these areas,
  not to mention the pressure upon public
  administration and social service.

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• Census in 2000
• Population shifting within province 64.97
• Population shifting across province 35.03
• Population shifting rate gt 4
• Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian,
  Shandong
• Guangdong, Sichuan
• Population shifting rate in Guangdong is 19.7

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• Characteristic of shifting population in China
• Economic factor is the most important reason
  for population shifting.
• migrate form rural area to urban area 74.
• migrate from less-developed area to developed
  area 67.82
• Most of shifting population are young people,
  especially young females

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• Household registration system in China (??,
  hukou)
• The Chinese household registration system
  (hukou), which divides the population into
  agricultural and nonagricultural sectors,
  maybe the most important determinant of
  differential privileges in state socialist China,
  determining access to good jobs, education for
  ones children, housing, health care, and even
  the right to move to a city.
• 1.Where to register ?
• 2. Why do Chinese need household registration
  ?

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• Discussion
• Shanghai government issued an important
  residence policy in 2008. This policy allows
  those who have the temporary registered residence
  to obtain the permanent one if they are the
  talents that helpful for economic growth. So many
  talents, such as the senior managers in Finance
  and High-tech industry, research staff, will
  benefit from it.
• Why did Shanghai government introduce this new
  residence policy? Do you think it is a good
  policy? Will it have negative effects?
• (2) Many cities in China now allow the
  non-residence to obtain the registered residence
  by purchasing a house in these cities. Do you
  think Shanghai can adopt this policy?

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• Peasant worker in China

a person leaving the farm and working in a
Chinese city
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Migration causes, trends and patterns

• internal migration in China is characterized
  by two important features

rural-urban migration most migrant left their
farmlands for urban areas and for
non-agricultural activities.
interior-costal migration labor flows are
basically directed from the interior to coastal
areas, or from central and western regions to
eastern areas.
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Causes for migration
Income gap

• Economic factor is the most important reason
  for population shifting.
• migrate form rural area to urban area 74.
• migrate from less-developed area to developed
  area 67.82
• Most of shifting population are young people,
  especially young females

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income gap in developing countries


Guatemala Thailand Cambodia China
Vietnam Indonesia Bengal India
Pakistan 1989-2002 1990-2002 1997-2004
1985-2001 1992-2001 1993-2002 1991-2000
1989-99 1999-2001
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Regional disparity

• with the pro-east development strategies, such
  as the creation of the Special Economic Zones,
  lower taxes, favorable land usage, eastern
  regions have absorbed the largest share of FDI,
  which need a lot of labors

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Impacts of migration in China

• impacts on migrants and their families

A poor family could basically escape poverty with
the help of migrant peoples remittances. And
migrant laborers in China saved more out of their
wages to remit to their families, mainly used for
daily living expenditure, childrens education,
house building.
The migration experience can be helpful for
migrant laborers to increase their own human
capital.
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• impacts for the sending areas

There is no doubt that rural labor migration has
greatly contributed to the local development of
sending areas, especially the poor areas.
Through their hard work, high savings, low
consumption and by reducing the pressure on the
land, these tens of millions of rural laborers
have helped their family members who had stayed
behind. Had there been no, or much less
migration, the socio-economic gap between rural
and urban societies would have been much wider.
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• impacts for the receiving areas

The rural labors low wages and relatively high
human capital make the manufacturing industry in
China more competitive relative to other
countries.
The incoming rural migrants are paid piece-rate
wages and most work extra hours, they finish most
of hard work in the city.
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New generation of migrant worker

• China's first generation of migrant workers
  are mostly in the "60 after", "70 after." The
  "new generation of migrant workers," mainly
  refers to the "80 after", "90," so that China's
  migrant workers there is a clear sub - layer.
• There are about 100 million young migrant
  workers in China. Their characteristics
• (1) higher education
• (2) less enthusiasm about land
• (3) access to new civilization
• (4) modern hobby
• (5) different attitudes to job

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Case Foxconn suicide takes death toll to seven

Source May 17,2010 Shenzhen Daily  
A 21-YEAR-OLD worker for the Foxconn Technology
Group died Saturday night after falling from a
dormitory building in Longhua. It was the seventh
suicide at a Foxconn facility since the beginning
of the year. There have been nine attempts with
two surviving serious injuries. The string of
deaths has sparked a nationwide outcry. In an
earlier report Xinhua said the suicides
underlined the frustrations felt by young rural
migrants who had left their families to work long
hours in factories far from home. It said the
rights and psychological needs of workers were
often ignored as many companies focused on making
a profit.
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• Foxconn International Holdings Ltd is a
  multinational subsidiary of Hon Hai Precision
  Industry Co Ltd, a Taiwanese company that is the
  world's largest maker of electronic components.
• Foxconn is a leader in design, manufacturing, and
  after-sales services for computer, communication
  and consumer-electronics companies.
• Today the company has 420,000 employees in
  Shenzhen, 300,000 of them are working at the
  Shenzen Longhua Science Technology Park.

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• bad working conditions
• forced overtime
• strict work rules
• no time for recovery
• bad living conditions
• path of No Return

mental/physical distress
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How to deal with?
Raise the salary at least 30
vivid the workers life
Improve the living condition
Industry shift to inland China
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• Question
• (1) Analyze the impact of shifting population
  on economic growth.
• (2) Discuss shifting population in your
  country.