The Future Starts Today: General Lessons from Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive Approach

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The Future Starts Today General Lessons from
Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union
Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive
Approach

• BREAKOUT SESSION
• 15th Annual Emergency Management Higher Education
  Conference June 4-7, 2012
• Emergency Management Institute, Emmitsburg, MD

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References

• Contributing CEUSS team includes Alexander
  Siedschlag, Andrea Jerkovic and Rosemarie Stangl
  
• Presentation draws from results of the following
  FOCUS documents
• Deliverable 3.2 Alternative futures of the
  comprehensive approach
• Deliverable 4.1 Problem space report
  nature/environment
• Deliverable 5.2 Report on interdependencies of
  critical infrastructures
• Summary of FOCUS problem space descriptions
• Public versions of these documents are available
  on the FOCUS website http//www.focusproject.eu/w
  eb/focus/downloads

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Objectives

• To present, discuss and elaborate on mid-term
  results of the European Union co-funded research
  project FOCUS (Foresight Security Scenarios
  Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to
  Exogenous EU Roles).
• To introduce selected aspects of the European
  Unions emerging homeland security system, as
  among other things addressed by FOCUS.
• To address the EU comprehensive approach and
  its future.
• To place FOCUS results into a comprehensive
  context of future roles of higher education
  research and teaching in homeland security and
  emergency management.

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Overview

• EU security research project FOCUS
• FOCUS five big themes (2035)
• FOCUS three levels of analysis development
• FOCUS contribution to future higher education
  programs
• Emerging European Union homeland security system
• Example EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
  Department MIC
• Example European Programme for Critical
  Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP)
• Example EU concept of the comprehensive approach
• FOCUS results on comprehensive approach (CA)
• Alternative futures of needs for CA-related
  research and higher education
• Indicative scenario space for future EU security
  research
• Further challenges for higher education programs

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Topic won by FOCUS

• Topic SEC-2010.6.3-2 Fore sighting the
  contribution of security research to meet the
  future EU roles
• Description of the topic
• New tasks are expected to strengthen the EU's
  role towards providing a comprehensive security
  approach to its citizens. The external dimension
  of security may become every more important. The
  security impact of global climate change needs to
  be addressed. Furthermore, a stronger common
  approach to civil protection and crisis
  management is needed. The task is to develop
  scenarios as how security research under FP7 and
  beyond can best contribute to this comprehensive
  approach while giving due consideration to the
  ethical and societal dimension.
• Expected impact Provide input for the planning
  of security research to meet future EU roles
  beyond those defined in the ESRAB report.

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EU security research project FOCUS

• FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios Mapping
  Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous
  EU Roles
• FOCUS has the mission to propose future tracks of
  civil security research and emergency management
  research in order to support a comprehensive
  approach to future European homeland security,
  including exchange and cooperation with
  international key players
• The main idea of FOCUS is to perform inclusive
  foresight, resulting in multiple scenarios (in a
  2035 time frame) for
• Challenges whose causes are external to the
  territory of the Union, but whose consequences
  will be experienced on the territory of the Union
• EU responses using tangible contributions from
  security research
• IT-supported foresight in the form of alternative
  futures
• Use of FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform in
  teaching

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Main contribution

• To identify and assess alternative future tracks
  for security research in a 2035 time frame that
  will support the EU to adopt new roles in dealing
  with external threats, risks, and
  vulnerabilities.
• To develop and effective long-term prediction and
  assessment tool at EU level (IT-based Knowledge
  Platform).
• To populate that IT-based Knowledge Platform with
  analyses done in the project.
• To explore the usability of the IT-based
  Knowledge Platform beyond the project.

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FOCUS IT-based knowledge platform (example)
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Main FOCUS output beyond the IT-based product

• Studies and scenario syllabi, and cross-cutting
  reference scenarios.
• Option roadmap for new tracks of security
  research to support EU roles in response to
  exogenous threats, risks and vulnerabilities
  (including prioritised lists of themes), be based
  on a so-called matrix of context options,
  assessing scenarios for security research against
  the background of scenarios for EU roles.
• Context development roadmap Description of
  several paths of how the context for European
  security research as well as for exogenous EU
  roles can develop in the future, based on
  assessment of alternatives.
• European Security Research Glossary (ESG) with
  definition of tracks, terms and concepts,
  including broadened concepts of security
  research.
• Qualification profile for future security
  research experts.
• Related education scheme (in the form of modules
  for a curriculum).

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FOCUS foresight

• Scenario foresight Foresight presented in the
  form of scenarios.
• Embedded scenario approach Alternative futures
  of security research in the context of future EU
  roles.

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Inclusive nature of theFOCUS approach to
foresight

• Bringing new actors into the strategic debate
  FOCUS will use foresight as an instrument to
  broaden the range of actors engaged in EU
  security policies, planning of security research,
  and related stakeholder, expert and public
  discussions.
• FOCUS will conduct foresight on an inclusive
  basis, trying to integrate multiple stakeholders,
  experts from a broad range of fields and
  interested public in variably mixed Future
  Groups, composed so to address security in
  relation to other societal as well as to ethical
  values. In order to better understanding the
  external dimension, these groups will also
  encompass non-European participants.
• Future Groups will also convene online/supported
  by the IT Platform.
• FOCUS will seek stakeholder involvement in four
  dimensions spread, choice, exchange and
  implementation.

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Exchange Work with FOCUS

• Get involved in FOCUS multidirectional flow of
  information and make a difference about FOCUS
  foresight outcomes

More, depending on your interests and level of
ambition
Expert questionnaires
Conferences and thematic workshops
End-user Test and Evaluation Panel
Online and offline expert consulations
Online deliberation about the five Big Themes
Voice of the citizens in new social media
representations of FOCUS
Future Groups and scenario foresight workshops
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FOCUS project structure
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FOCUS five big themes (2035)

• Different tracks regarding the future of the
  comprehensive approach as followed by European
  institutions, Member States, and international
  strategic actors including links between the
  internal and external dimension of security.
• Natural disasters and environment-related
  hazards, with an emphasis on comprehensive risk
  reduction, civil protection, and reconstruction.
• Critical infrastructure and supply chain
  protection, centred on preventing, mitigating,
  and responding to exogenous threats that could
  have a significant impact on EU citizens.
• The EU as a global actor, building on EU-level
  and Member States instruments and capability
  processes as well as on effective
  multilateralism.
• The evolution of the EUs internal framework and
  prerequisites for delivering a comprehensive
  approach, including strategies for engagement
  with other international actors, ethical
  acceptability, and public acceptance of future
  security roles of our Union.

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FOCUS three levels of analysis development

• Level 1 Problem space descriptions
• Ready and online per big theme
• Summary available, also as foresight guide
• Initial working version of IT-based Knowledge
  Platform
• Level 2 Context scenarios
• Future EU roles and capability/knowledge
  challenges
• Further elaboration of IT-based Knowledge
  Platform
• Level 3 Alternative futures for security
  research that support those roles
• Completion of IT-based Knowledge Platform

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FOCUS cross-scenario drivers from level-1 and
early level-2 work

• Globalization and international system change
• Changing modes of governance
• Changing values and norms
• Economic and social change
• Technological change
• Extent of common threat assessment
• Consistency and coherence of future research

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FOCUS contribution to future higher education
programs

• Curriculum development scheme as an
  implementation aspect of the FOCUS roadmap
  proposal for future security research.
• Syllabus of FOCUS modules for implementation in
  curricula of the projects partner universities.

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Emerging European Union homeland security system

• The European Union has now the legal power to
  encourage cooperation between Member States in
  order to improve the effectiveness of systems for
  preventing and protecting against natural or
  man-made disasters. (Article 196 Treaty on the
  Functioning of the European Union Lisbon 2009
  version)
• This includes preparing civil-protection
  personnel, promoting effective operational
  cooperation between national civil protection
  services, and promoting consistency in
  international civil-protection work.
• The European Unions initiative for a designation
  process of European Critical Infrastructure
  (ECI) as well as its initiative for an integrated
  risk assessment method adds to the challenges for
  future graduate studies and academic training.

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EC DG ECHO Monitoring and Information Centre
(MIC)

• Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department
  of the European Commission (ECHO, i.e. former
  European Community Humanitarian Aid Office)

• MIC works in close cooperation with national
  crisis centers throughout the 32 countries
  participating in the Mechanism (EU 27, Croatia,
  the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
  Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway).
• The MIC handles over 20 emergencies a year. In
  addition, it monitors many more emergencies.
• During emergencies the MIC plays three important
  roles Communications hub, information provision,
  coordination

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European Programme for Critical Infrastructure
Protection (EPCIP)
The Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the
identification and designation of European
critical infrastructures (ECI) and the assessment
of the need to improve their protection (EU,
2008) provides the following definitions (a)
critical infrastructure means an asset, system
or part thereof located in Member States which is
essential for the maintenance of vital societal
functions, health, safety, security, economic or
social well-being of people, and the disruption
or destruction of which would have a significant
impact in a Member State as a result of the
failure to maintain those functions (b)
European critical infrastructure or ECI means
critical infrastructure located in Member States
the disruption or destruction of which would have
a significant impact on at least two Member
States. The significance of the impact shall be
assessed in terms of cross-cutting criteria. This
includes effects resulting from cross-sector
dependencies on other types of infrastructure
.
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EU concept of the comprehensive approach
While the EU has only started to move from a
consensual top risk approach to an all-hazards
approach, it has always advocated the
comprehensive approach. The comprehensive
approach aims at overarching solutions to
problems, with broad effects based on
complementarity of actors, while considering all
available options and capabilities, as well as
the normative end-state of the security of
society as a whole, based on a whole of community
approach. The EU, like NATO et al., at first
referred to comprehensive approach as a concept
pertaining to international crisis management
(harmonized deployment of resources,
capabilities, and capacities throughout the
crisis management cycle). Later, it applied the
term also to the field of civil security and
civil security research.
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Conceptual aspects

• The comprehensive approach reflects the
  cross-border and cross-sector nature of security
  threats and challenges as well as the complexity
  of instruments and objectives in security policy.
• The comprehensive approach addresses the
  internal-external continuum.
• Nowadays it focuses on the holistic nature and
  broad trade-offs in increasing the security of
  the EU and its citizenry as a whole.
• The comprehensive approach still lacks an
  overarching definition, but there is at least
  broad agreement that in its external dimension,
  it implies integrating the political, security,
  development, rule of law, human rights and
  humanitarian dimensions of the EUs international
  missions and operations.
• However, the concept is not limited to the
  external dimension.

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Other approaches

• An integrated approach focuses on cross-sector
  solutions based on platforms, such as providing
  security of both persons and goods in public
  transport by unified models, strategies, and
  technologies or such as comprising different
  sectors of the strategic management cycle. In
  practice, there are various concepts of
  integrated approach that differ in their focus
  on managing different threats. There are
  integrated approaches to economic threats, to
  natural disasters, etc.
• A holistic approach builds on multifunction, such
  as linking security and environmental protection,
  security and (resource) efficiency, etc. in one
  single package of measures and solutions.
• An all-hazards approach centres on cross-sector,
  cross-risk analyses, and measures.

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Conceptual evolution

• The comprehensive approach was originally used by
  NATO (cf. RAND study 1992), both as an
  operational approach and a strategic concept. It
  involved the coordination of different actors and
  strategies, with all trying to achieve political
  objectives in an increasingly complex
  environment. The concept has since undergone a
  significant expansion of scope.
• The EU first referred to the comprehensive
  approach as a concept for international crisis
  management (harmonized deployment of resources,
  capabilities and capacities throughout all the
  crisis management cycle phases from primary
  prevention to reconstruction).
• Later, the EU started to apply the term also to
  the field of civil security and civil security
  research, including the description of
  methodological requirements for civil security
  research projects to meet.
• Based on analysis of (approx. 50) pertinent
  forward-looking definitions, FOCUS identified a
  set of possible future definitional components.

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Core ingredients of conceptual definitions of
comprehensive approach in forward-looking
policy, strategy, and security research documents
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Top-5 and bottom-5 conceptual elements of
comprehensive approach in forward-looking
policy, strategy, and security research documents
Top 5 Top 5 Bottom 5 Bottom 5
Coordination between autonomous actors 11.9 Resilience/ownership 4.2
Division of labour between all actors involved 10.5 Review of systems (overarching state-of analysis of currently used systems) 3.5
International combination of capabilities/pooling 10.5 Common operational picture 2.1
Integrated assessment/ decision making(systemic approach) 9.8 Internal-external threat/security continuum 2.1
Intervention-based approach (top-down/transfer of solutions, as opposed to bottom-up) 9.1 Knowledge/anticipation/ foresight 1.4
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Sceanrio space for alternative futures of
CA-related research and higher education
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Key drivers for alternative futures of the
comprehensive approach

• Political and/or religious radicalism
• Organized crime, including piracy, illegal
  finance transactions, and trafficking of drugs,
  arms, and humans
• Demographics, with resulting global migration and
  increasing conflict over natural resources
• Severe political crisis and (civil) war in EU
  neighbouring or in close countries
• Growing interconnectedness of the internal and
  the external dimensions of security
• Failed states
• Illegal immigration
• Infectious diseases and health crises
• Disasters, either of human or natural origin,
  including industrial accidents
• Natural resources and energy transition
• Aggression against national territory or
  violation of sovereignty territories
• Proliferation of weapon of mass destruction (WMD)
• Terrorism as a strategy of action and political
  influence
• Cyberattacks and attacks against
  telecommunication and information systems
• Economic instability, with resulting reduced
  resources to address external security threats
• Climate change and environmental changes/hazards
• Interruption of essential resource supplies,
  mainly in the energy sector
• Increasing reliance/dependency on information and
  communication technologies, with increasing
  vulnerability
• Abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies
  and new scientific knowledge

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Foreseen core of concept of the EU comprehensive
approach

• A comprehensive approach addresses the range of
  threats by the full menu of instruments in order
  to realize overarching security.
• A comprehensive approach aims to find and
  implement overarching solutions to problems, with
  broad effects and based on complementarity of
  actors, while considering all available options
  and capabilities, as well as the normative
  end-state of the security of society as a whole.
• A comprehensive approach also entails the
  tackling of cross-cutting issues in home affairs.

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Foreseen research and teaching needs in the
context of the CA

• Balanced, flexible, and effective civilian and
  military capabilities for domestic (? solidarity
  clause) and external use
• Comparative assessment of national policies in
  crisis management
• Cybercrime as a global phenomenon causing
  significant damage to the EU internal market
• New technologies for collecting and integrating
  data from various different sources
• Intelligent, knowledge based focusing and
  filtering functions for new social media and
  other open information source monitoring
• Training schemes for technology use including new
  social network technologies
• Advancement and integration of approaches to
  foresight, with special consideration of the
  following use driven shifts, user experience as
  a dominant influence in the technology trend,
  identification, and analysis of disruptors from
  normative end states.

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Indicative scenario space for future EU security
research (draft)
RTD for Common European Capabilities
Knowledge foundations for an integrated approach
(citizen resilience, societal acceptance, ethical
acceptability, etc.)
Knowledge foundations for new policy initiatives
for coherence
Challenges for research that derive from the
Stockholm Programme (European Council had already
encouraged greater cooperation between JLS and
ESDP to further shared objectives
Academic discipline, including reflection on
politics of fear, securitisation, cultural
selection of risks, etc.
Driver of technological/economic development
?
Planning tool for civil security
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Thematic challenges associated with emergency
management higher education programs

• Comparative studies of the governance of homeland
  security and emergency management, including
  analyzing citizens needs
• Social science/humanities aspects in designation
  of critical infrastructure (e.g., securitization
  and cultural selection of risks)
• Vulnerability studies and supply chain/essential
  services management
• Civil-military dual use systems (e.g., in the
  surveillance sector)
• Monitoring of new social media and other open
  information sources
• Implementation perspective, with indicators for
  effectiveness of a comprehensive approach
• Multi-disciplinary scenarios of maximum credible
  natural events
• Ethics aspects, such as unintended reproduction
  of inequality or creation of uneven distribution
  of security in society
• Training schemes for use of relevant technology
• Training schemes for use of new social network
  technologies, to coordinate response and for
  empowerment of victims, and of first responders
  including volunteers

Discipline-related
Transversal
Skills
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Further challenges associated with emergency
management higher education programs

• Enhanced accessibility and more comprehensive
  analysis/use of previous studies and their
  results
• Vulnerability studies
• Security scrutiny of the results and possible
  revealing of security gaps
• Resulting restriction of dissemination
• Resulting classification and non-accessibility of
  content vs. transparency and possibility of
  independent verification of the results as
  cornerstones of quality management as well as
  integrity of research and teaching
• How can the coherence of security with societal
  preferences be achieved?
• Major consideration of non technological issues,
  such as trust and resilience
• Resilience implies the recognition of the fact
  that we cannot prevent all incidents and that we
  must also builds societies and infrastructures
  that can cope, also in order to prevent largely
  uneven distribution of security in society

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Contact

• Sigmund Freud Private
  University Vienna
• Institute for Security
  Research
• CEUSS Center for
  European Security Studies
• FOCUS Coordinator
• FOCUS Foresight Coordination Cell (FoCC)
• http//www.european-security.info
• http//www.focusproject.eu
• siedschlag_at_european-security.info
• jerkovic_at_european-security.info

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http//www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission
under the 7th Framework Programme, theme
"security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme
topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of
security research to meet the future EU roles,
Grant Agreement no. 261633.