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The Future Starts Today: General Lessons from Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive Approach

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Title: The Future Starts Today: General Lessons from Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive Approach


1
The Future Starts Today General Lessons from
Scenario Foresight of the Emerging European Union
Homeland Security System and the Comprehensive
Approach
  • BREAKOUT SESSION
  • 15th Annual Emergency Management Higher Education
    Conference June 4-7, 2012
  • Emergency Management Institute, Emmitsburg, MD

2
References
  • Contributing CEUSS team includes Alexander
    Siedschlag, Andrea Jerkovic and Rosemarie Stangl
  • Presentation draws from results of the following
    FOCUS documents
  • Deliverable 3.2 Alternative futures of the
    comprehensive approach
  • Deliverable 4.1 Problem space report
    nature/environment
  • Deliverable 5.2 Report on interdependencies of
    critical infrastructures
  • Summary of FOCUS problem space descriptions
  • Public versions of these documents are available
    on the FOCUS website http//www.focusproject.eu/w
    eb/focus/downloads

3
Objectives
  • To present, discuss and elaborate on mid-term
    results of the European Union co-funded research
    project FOCUS (Foresight Security Scenarios
    Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to
    Exogenous EU Roles).
  • To introduce selected aspects of the European
    Unions emerging homeland security system, as
    among other things addressed by FOCUS.
  • To address the EU comprehensive approach and
    its future.
  • To place FOCUS results into a comprehensive
    context of future roles of higher education
    research and teaching in homeland security and
    emergency management.

4
Overview
  • EU security research project FOCUS
  • FOCUS five big themes (2035)
  • FOCUS three levels of analysis development
  • FOCUS contribution to future higher education
    programs
  • Emerging European Union homeland security system
  • Example EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
    Department MIC
  • Example European Programme for Critical
    Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP)
  • Example EU concept of the comprehensive approach
  • FOCUS results on comprehensive approach (CA)
  • Alternative futures of needs for CA-related
    research and higher education
  • Indicative scenario space for future EU security
    research
  • Further challenges for higher education programs

5
Topic won by FOCUS
  • Topic SEC-2010.6.3-2 Fore sighting the
    contribution of security research to meet the
    future EU roles
  • Description of the topic
  • New tasks are expected to strengthen the EU's
    role towards providing a comprehensive security
    approach to its citizens. The external dimension
    of security may become every more important. The
    security impact of global climate change needs to
    be addressed. Furthermore, a stronger common
    approach to civil protection and crisis
    management is needed. The task is to develop
    scenarios as how security research under FP7 and
    beyond can best contribute to this comprehensive
    approach while giving due consideration to the
    ethical and societal dimension.
  • Expected impact Provide input for the planning
    of security research to meet future EU roles
    beyond those defined in the ESRAB report.

6
EU security research project FOCUS
  • FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios Mapping
    Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous
    EU Roles
  • FOCUS has the mission to propose future tracks of
    civil security research and emergency management
    research in order to support a comprehensive
    approach to future European homeland security,
    including exchange and cooperation with
    international key players
  • The main idea of FOCUS is to perform inclusive
    foresight, resulting in multiple scenarios (in a
    2035 time frame) for
  • Challenges whose causes are external to the
    territory of the Union, but whose consequences
    will be experienced on the territory of the Union
  • EU responses using tangible contributions from
    security research
  • IT-supported foresight in the form of alternative
    futures
  • Use of FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform in
    teaching

7
Main contribution
  • To identify and assess alternative future tracks
    for security research in a 2035 time frame that
    will support the EU to adopt new roles in dealing
    with external threats, risks, and
    vulnerabilities.
  • To develop and effective long-term prediction and
    assessment tool at EU level (IT-based Knowledge
    Platform).
  • To populate that IT-based Knowledge Platform with
    analyses done in the project.
  • To explore the usability of the IT-based
    Knowledge Platform beyond the project.

8
FOCUS IT-based knowledge platform (example)
9
Main FOCUS output beyond the IT-based product
  • Studies and scenario syllabi, and cross-cutting
    reference scenarios.
  • Option roadmap for new tracks of security
    research to support EU roles in response to
    exogenous threats, risks and vulnerabilities
    (including prioritised lists of themes), be based
    on a so-called matrix of context options,
    assessing scenarios for security research against
    the background of scenarios for EU roles.
  • Context development roadmap Description of
    several paths of how the context for European
    security research as well as for exogenous EU
    roles can develop in the future, based on
    assessment of alternatives.
  • European Security Research Glossary (ESG) with
    definition of tracks, terms and concepts,
    including broadened concepts of security
    research.
  • Qualification profile for future security
    research experts.
  • Related education scheme (in the form of modules
    for a curriculum).

10
FOCUS foresight
  • Scenario foresight Foresight presented in the
    form of scenarios.
  • Embedded scenario approach Alternative futures
    of security research in the context of future EU
    roles.

11
Inclusive nature of theFOCUS approach to
foresight
  • Bringing new actors into the strategic debate
    FOCUS will use foresight as an instrument to
    broaden the range of actors engaged in EU
    security policies, planning of security research,
    and related stakeholder, expert and public
    discussions.
  • FOCUS will conduct foresight on an inclusive
    basis, trying to integrate multiple stakeholders,
    experts from a broad range of fields and
    interested public in variably mixed Future
    Groups, composed so to address security in
    relation to other societal as well as to ethical
    values. In order to better understanding the
    external dimension, these groups will also
    encompass non-European participants.
  • Future Groups will also convene online/supported
    by the IT Platform.
  • FOCUS will seek stakeholder involvement in four
    dimensions spread, choice, exchange and
    implementation.

12
Exchange Work with FOCUS
  • Get involved in FOCUS multidirectional flow of
    information and make a difference about FOCUS
    foresight outcomes

More, depending on your interests and level of
ambition
Expert questionnaires
Conferences and thematic workshops
End-user Test and Evaluation Panel
Online and offline expert consulations
Online deliberation about the five Big Themes
Voice of the citizens in new social media
representations of FOCUS
Future Groups and scenario foresight workshops
13
FOCUS project structure
13
14
FOCUS five big themes (2035)
  • Different tracks regarding the future of the
    comprehensive approach as followed by European
    institutions, Member States, and international
    strategic actors including links between the
    internal and external dimension of security.
  • Natural disasters and environment-related
    hazards, with an emphasis on comprehensive risk
    reduction, civil protection, and reconstruction.
  • Critical infrastructure and supply chain
    protection, centred on preventing, mitigating,
    and responding to exogenous threats that could
    have a significant impact on EU citizens.
  • The EU as a global actor, building on EU-level
    and Member States instruments and capability
    processes as well as on effective
    multilateralism.
  • The evolution of the EUs internal framework and
    prerequisites for delivering a comprehensive
    approach, including strategies for engagement
    with other international actors, ethical
    acceptability, and public acceptance of future
    security roles of our Union.

15
FOCUS three levels of analysis development
  • Level 1 Problem space descriptions
  • Ready and online per big theme
  • Summary available, also as foresight guide
  • Initial working version of IT-based Knowledge
    Platform
  • Level 2 Context scenarios
  • Future EU roles and capability/knowledge
    challenges
  • Further elaboration of IT-based Knowledge
    Platform
  • Level 3 Alternative futures for security
    research that support those roles
  • Completion of IT-based Knowledge Platform

16
FOCUS cross-scenario drivers from level-1 and
early level-2 work
  • Globalization and international system change
  • Changing modes of governance
  • Changing values and norms
  • Economic and social change
  • Technological change
  • Extent of common threat assessment
  • Consistency and coherence of future research

17
FOCUS contribution to future higher education
programs
  • Curriculum development scheme as an
    implementation aspect of the FOCUS roadmap
    proposal for future security research.
  • Syllabus of FOCUS modules for implementation in
    curricula of the projects partner universities.

18
Emerging European Union homeland security system
  • The European Union has now the legal power to
    encourage cooperation between Member States in
    order to improve the effectiveness of systems for
    preventing and protecting against natural or
    man-made disasters. (Article 196 Treaty on the
    Functioning of the European Union Lisbon 2009
    version)
  • This includes preparing civil-protection
    personnel, promoting effective operational
    cooperation between national civil protection
    services, and promoting consistency in
    international civil-protection work.
  • The European Unions initiative for a designation
    process of European Critical Infrastructure
    (ECI) as well as its initiative for an integrated
    risk assessment method adds to the challenges for
    future graduate studies and academic training.

19
EC DG ECHO Monitoring and Information Centre
(MIC)
  • Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department
    of the European Commission (ECHO, i.e. former
    European Community Humanitarian Aid Office)
  • MIC works in close cooperation with national
    crisis centers throughout the 32 countries
    participating in the Mechanism (EU 27, Croatia,
    the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
    Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway).
  • The MIC handles over 20 emergencies a year. In
    addition, it monitors many more emergencies.
  • During emergencies the MIC plays three important
    roles Communications hub, information provision,
    coordination

20
European Programme for Critical Infrastructure
Protection (EPCIP)
The Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the
identification and designation of European
critical infrastructures (ECI) and the assessment
of the need to improve their protection (EU,
2008) provides the following definitions (a)
critical infrastructure means an asset, system
or part thereof located in Member States which is
essential for the maintenance of vital societal
functions, health, safety, security, economic or
social well-being of people, and the disruption
or destruction of which would have a significant
impact in a Member State as a result of the
failure to maintain those functions (b)
European critical infrastructure or ECI means
critical infrastructure located in Member States
the disruption or destruction of which would have
a significant impact on at least two Member
States. The significance of the impact shall be
assessed in terms of cross-cutting criteria. This
includes effects resulting from cross-sector
dependencies on other types of infrastructure
.
21
EU concept of the comprehensive approach
While the EU has only started to move from a
consensual top risk approach to an all-hazards
approach, it has always advocated the
comprehensive approach. The comprehensive
approach aims at overarching solutions to
problems, with broad effects based on
complementarity of actors, while considering all
available options and capabilities, as well as
the normative end-state of the security of
society as a whole, based on a whole of community
approach. The EU, like NATO et al., at first
referred to comprehensive approach as a concept
pertaining to international crisis management
(harmonized deployment of resources,
capabilities, and capacities throughout the
crisis management cycle). Later, it applied the
term also to the field of civil security and
civil security research.
22
Conceptual aspects
  • The comprehensive approach reflects the
    cross-border and cross-sector nature of security
    threats and challenges as well as the complexity
    of instruments and objectives in security policy.
  • The comprehensive approach addresses the
    internal-external continuum.
  • Nowadays it focuses on the holistic nature and
    broad trade-offs in increasing the security of
    the EU and its citizenry as a whole.
  • The comprehensive approach still lacks an
    overarching definition, but there is at least
    broad agreement that in its external dimension,
    it implies integrating the political, security,
    development, rule of law, human rights and
    humanitarian dimensions of the EUs international
    missions and operations.
  • However, the concept is not limited to the
    external dimension.

23
Other approaches
  • An integrated approach focuses on cross-sector
    solutions based on platforms, such as providing
    security of both persons and goods in public
    transport by unified models, strategies, and
    technologies or such as comprising different
    sectors of the strategic management cycle. In
    practice, there are various concepts of
    integrated approach that differ in their focus
    on managing different threats. There are
    integrated approaches to economic threats, to
    natural disasters, etc.
  • A holistic approach builds on multifunction, such
    as linking security and environmental protection,
    security and (resource) efficiency, etc. in one
    single package of measures and solutions.
  • An all-hazards approach centres on cross-sector,
    cross-risk analyses, and measures.

24
Conceptual evolution
  • The comprehensive approach was originally used by
    NATO (cf. RAND study 1992), both as an
    operational approach and a strategic concept. It
    involved the coordination of different actors and
    strategies, with all trying to achieve political
    objectives in an increasingly complex
    environment. The concept has since undergone a
    significant expansion of scope.
  • The EU first referred to the comprehensive
    approach as a concept for international crisis
    management (harmonized deployment of resources,
    capabilities and capacities throughout all the
    crisis management cycle phases from primary
    prevention to reconstruction).
  • Later, the EU started to apply the term also to
    the field of civil security and civil security
    research, including the description of
    methodological requirements for civil security
    research projects to meet.
  • Based on analysis of (approx. 50) pertinent
    forward-looking definitions, FOCUS identified a
    set of possible future definitional components.

25
Core ingredients of conceptual definitions of
comprehensive approach in forward-looking
policy, strategy, and security research documents
26
Top-5 and bottom-5 conceptual elements of
comprehensive approach in forward-looking
policy, strategy, and security research documents
Top 5 Top 5 Bottom 5 Bottom 5
Coordination between autonomous actors 11.9 Resilience/ownership 4.2
Division of labour between all actors involved 10.5 Review of systems (overarching state-of analysis of currently used systems) 3.5
International combination of capabilities/pooling 10.5 Common operational picture 2.1
Integrated assessment/ decision making(systemic approach) 9.8 Internal-external threat/security continuum 2.1
Intervention-based approach (top-down/transfer of solutions, as opposed to bottom-up) 9.1 Knowledge/anticipation/ foresight 1.4
27
Sceanrio space for alternative futures of
CA-related research and higher education
28
Key drivers for alternative futures of the
comprehensive approach
  • Political and/or religious radicalism
  • Organized crime, including piracy, illegal
    finance transactions, and trafficking of drugs,
    arms, and humans
  • Demographics, with resulting global migration and
    increasing conflict over natural resources
  • Severe political crisis and (civil) war in EU
    neighbouring or in close countries
  • Growing interconnectedness of the internal and
    the external dimensions of security
  • Failed states
  • Illegal immigration
  • Infectious diseases and health crises
  • Disasters, either of human or natural origin,
    including industrial accidents
  • Natural resources and energy transition
  • Aggression against national territory or
    violation of sovereignty territories
  • Proliferation of weapon of mass destruction (WMD)
  • Terrorism as a strategy of action and political
    influence
  • Cyberattacks and attacks against
    telecommunication and information systems
  • Economic instability, with resulting reduced
    resources to address external security threats
  • Climate change and environmental changes/hazards
  • Interruption of essential resource supplies,
    mainly in the energy sector
  • Increasing reliance/dependency on information and
    communication technologies, with increasing
    vulnerability
  • Abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies
    and new scientific knowledge

29
Foreseen core of concept of the EU comprehensive
approach
  • A comprehensive approach addresses the range of
    threats by the full menu of instruments in order
    to realize overarching security.
  • A comprehensive approach aims to find and
    implement overarching solutions to problems, with
    broad effects and based on complementarity of
    actors, while considering all available options
    and capabilities, as well as the normative
    end-state of the security of society as a whole.
  • A comprehensive approach also entails the
    tackling of cross-cutting issues in home affairs.

30
Foreseen research and teaching needs in the
context of the CA
  • Balanced, flexible, and effective civilian and
    military capabilities for domestic (? solidarity
    clause) and external use
  • Comparative assessment of national policies in
    crisis management
  • Cybercrime as a global phenomenon causing
    significant damage to the EU internal market
  • New technologies for collecting and integrating
    data from various different sources
  • Intelligent, knowledge based focusing and
    filtering functions for new social media and
    other open information source monitoring
  • Training schemes for technology use including new
    social network technologies
  • Advancement and integration of approaches to
    foresight, with special consideration of the
    following use driven shifts, user experience as
    a dominant influence in the technology trend,
    identification, and analysis of disruptors from
    normative end states.

31
Indicative scenario space for future EU security
research (draft)
RTD for Common European Capabilities
Knowledge foundations for an integrated approach
(citizen resilience, societal acceptance, ethical
acceptability, etc.)
Knowledge foundations for new policy initiatives
for coherence
Challenges for research that derive from the
Stockholm Programme (European Council had already
encouraged greater cooperation between JLS and
ESDP to further shared objectives
Academic discipline, including reflection on
politics of fear, securitisation, cultural
selection of risks, etc.
Driver of technological/economic development
?
Planning tool for civil security
32
Thematic challenges associated with emergency
management higher education programs
  • Comparative studies of the governance of homeland
    security and emergency management, including
    analyzing citizens needs
  • Social science/humanities aspects in designation
    of critical infrastructure (e.g., securitization
    and cultural selection of risks)
  • Vulnerability studies and supply chain/essential
    services management
  • Civil-military dual use systems (e.g., in the
    surveillance sector)
  • Monitoring of new social media and other open
    information sources
  • Implementation perspective, with indicators for
    effectiveness of a comprehensive approach
  • Multi-disciplinary scenarios of maximum credible
    natural events
  • Ethics aspects, such as unintended reproduction
    of inequality or creation of uneven distribution
    of security in society
  • Training schemes for use of relevant technology
  • Training schemes for use of new social network
    technologies, to coordinate response and for
    empowerment of victims, and of first responders
    including volunteers

Discipline-related
Transversal
Skills
33
Further challenges associated with emergency
management higher education programs
  • Enhanced accessibility and more comprehensive
    analysis/use of previous studies and their
    results
  • Vulnerability studies
  • Security scrutiny of the results and possible
    revealing of security gaps
  • Resulting restriction of dissemination
  • Resulting classification and non-accessibility of
    content vs. transparency and possibility of
    independent verification of the results as
    cornerstones of quality management as well as
    integrity of research and teaching
  • How can the coherence of security with societal
    preferences be achieved?
  • Major consideration of non technological issues,
    such as trust and resilience
  • Resilience implies the recognition of the fact
    that we cannot prevent all incidents and that we
    must also builds societies and infrastructures
    that can cope, also in order to prevent largely
    uneven distribution of security in society

34
Contact
  • Sigmund Freud Private
    University Vienna
  • Institute for Security
    Research
  • CEUSS Center for
    European Security Studies
  • FOCUS Coordinator
  • FOCUS Foresight Coordination Cell (FoCC)
  • http//www.european-security.info
  • http//www.focusproject.eu
  • siedschlag_at_european-security.info
  • jerkovic_at_european-security.info

35
http//www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission
under the 7th Framework Programme, theme
"security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme
topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of
security research to meet the future EU roles,
Grant Agreement no. 261633.
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