An ensemble of ensembles (TIGGE): What's available now in CXML format and what's coming via GIFS for tropical cyclone forecasting

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An ensemble of ensembles (TIGGE) What's
available now in CXML format and what's coming
via GIFS for tropical cyclone forecasting

• Beth Ebert
• CAWCR

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate
Research A partnership between CSIRO and the
Bureau of Meteorology
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What is GIFS?

• GIFS Global Interactive Forecast System,
  forecast products generated from an ensemble of
  NWP ensembles to better prepare for high impact
  events (especially in the developing world), for
  the use and benefit of humanity

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Pie in the sky?
THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
Enhanced (use of) observations
GIFS
Product generation toolbox
WWRP/THORPEX Severe Weather Forecast
Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO Information System (WIS)
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TIGGE Archive Centers and data providers
Courtesy of Steve Worley, NCAR
IDD/LDM Internet Data Distribution / Local Data
Manager Commodity internet application to send
and receive data
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Summary of TIGGE data, March 20082-day delay
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Courtesy of Steve Worley, NCAR
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Fields included in TIGGE gridded dataset

• Surface level
• 10 meter u-velocity,10 meter v-velocity,
  Convective available potential energy, Convective
  inhibition, Field capacity, Land-sea mask, Mean
  sea level pressure, Orography, Skin temperature,
  Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water
  equivalent, Soil moisture, Soil temperature,
  Sunshine duration, Surface air dew point
  temperature, Surface air maximum temperature,
  Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air
  temperature, Surface pressure, Time-integrated
  outgoing long wave radiation, Time-integrated
  surface latent heat flux, Time-integrated surface
  net solar radiation, Time-integrated surface net
  thermal radiation, Time-integrated surface
  sensible heat flux, Total cloud cover, Total
  column water, Total precipitation, Wilting point
• Pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300,
  250, 200 hPa)
• Geopotential height, specific humidity,
  temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity
• Potential temperature level (theta320K)
• Potential vorticity
• Potential vorticity level (2PVU)
• Potential temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity

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Operational products single-ensemble tracks,
strike probability, Lagrangian meteogram
Lagrangian meteogram
Strike probability
(examples from ECMWF EPS)
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Test products multi-ensemble tracks and strike
probability(courtesy Piers Buchanan, Met Office)
Combined Met Office ECMWF ensembles, Hurricane
Ike 2008
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Test products ensemble strike
probabilities(courtesy Young-Youn Park, KMA)
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TIGGE ? GIFS

• Demonstrate utility of multi-model ensembles for
  high-impact events using tropical cyclones as an
  example
• Explore formats for exchange of TC data
• Data providers and archive centers consider
  adding TC data to TIGGE archive
• Support T-PARC in 2008
• Responds to TC community recommendations (IWTC
  2006 Costa Rica) for
• deterministic and ensemble forecasts
• appropriate standardized format
• single global data base of tropical cyclone
  forecasts originating from the different NWP
  centres
• Real-time exchange of 1-15 day TC forecasts as a
  prototype for GIFS

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?
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TIGGE data producers providing their track
forecasts

• ECMWF - yes
• Met Office - yes
• JMA - yes
• NCEP - yes
• CMC - yes (via NCEP)
• CMA - yes
• KMA - yes
• CPTEC - no
• BOM - no
• MeteoFrance - no
• Shanghai Typhoon Inst. - yes

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Near real time cyclone data exchange

• Data exchanged via FTP (some sites require
  registration)
• TC data archived at NCAR at http//dss.ucar.edu/da
  tasets/ds330.3/ under 'Data Access' and
  'Internet Download'
• Data format is CXML (Cyclone XML), designed to
  exchange TC analyses, deterministic forecasts,
  and ensemble forecasts,

http//www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/TC/ind
ex.html
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CXML example from NCEP13 March 09 00Z model run
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CXML data section
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CXML status

• Overwhelmingly positive response from TC
  community
• Excellent response by TIGGE data providers
• NOT a replacement for BUFR and CREX, just an
  alternative
• Many good suggestions for improvement have been
  incorporated
• Version 1.0 released June 2008, 1.1 (current)
  released July 2008
• Sample software available to write and read CXML
• CXML converter ? ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone
  Forecast format)
• CXML readers now available in IDL and Fortran
• More information on CXML project web site
  http//www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/CXML/i
  ndex.html

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Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project
(SWFDP) an example of int'l cooperation that
works

• Cascading principle
• Special products from global centres to
  RSMC-Pretoria
• RSMC prepares guidance forecasts for next 5 days
  and disseminates daily to 5 NMCs
• NMCs use guidance forecast in preparing warnings
  when appropriate to disaster management
  authorities

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Examples of EPS products from ECMWF, Met Office,
and NCEP
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SWFDP as a model for GIFS

• Major NWP producing centres generate ensemble
  forecasts
• State of the art NWP models and data assimilation
  systems
• (Relatively) well resourced
• Ensemble output sent to regional GIFS centres for
  "value adding"
• Good knowledge of regional high impact weather
  issues
• Existing relationships with national
  meteorological services in the region
• Use of processing tools developed and shared
  among regional GIFS centres
• Products from regional centres disseminated
  throughout the region
• Developing nations can take advantage of
  international scientific and technology
  developments
• Training in use of products improves their
  usefulness
• Verification may have a regional focus
• Feedback to international GIFS program regarding
  areas for further improvement

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GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP)

• Develop and test prototypes for various high
  impact events
• 1st focus on tropical cyclone forecasts
• Subsequent focus on heavy rainfall and other
  problems of high priority
• Organized by GIFS-TIGGE working group and carried
  out in conjunction with CBS regional SWFDPs where
  possible
• Products developed in conjunction with
  specialised regional and national centres
• 2 year expected development period
• Year 3 real time testing and evaluation by
  operational users
• Development partners
• THORPEX WWRP Research Working Groups
• WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration
  Projects (SWFDPs)
• THORPEX Regional Committees (RCs)
• Interest groups for prototype products
• Technical focus groups
• WMO/CBS
• First meeting THORPEX Symposium in September 2009

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GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP)

• Additional partners for TC GIFS
• RSMCs (Fiji, La Reunion, New Delhi, Tokyo,
  Honolulu, Miami)
• TCWCs (Jakarta, Wellington, Port Moresby,
  Brisbane, Darwin, Perth)
• National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
• US Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project