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Valuation and evaluation: forest ecosystem services and human welfare

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Title: Valuation and evaluation: forest ecosystem services and human welfare


1
Valuation and evaluation forest ecosystem
services and human welfare
Subhrendu K. PattanayakEconomics of
Environment, Health and DevelopmentRTI
International Conservation InternationalSantarem
, BrasilDecember 7, 2004
2
Road map
  • Valuing forest ecosystem services
  • watershed services (tropics)
  • non-timber forest products (tropics)
  • forest aesthetics (US)
  • Estimating non-traditional outcomes of
    conservation
  • health and education
  • child malaria an example
  • Building a long term research program
  • quasi-experiments
  • randomized field trials

3
Policy research strategy
  • Overlooked area, with very small body of
    quantitative research
  • conceptually complex
  • measurement challenges
  • turning knowledge into practice
  • Focus areas
  • economic impacts of forest ecosystem services
  • ecosystem impacts of economic behaviors
  • policy and institutional mechanisms that mediate
    or trigger
  • Core strategy
  • define policy (payments or parks) as a testable
    hypothesis
  • collect and analyze socio-economic and ecological
    data
  • publish findings in peer reviewed journals

4
Collaborators past present
  • Erin Sills (NC State University)
  • Randy Kramer (Duke University)
  • Evan Mercer (U.S. Forest Service)
  • Paul Ferraro (Georgia State University)
  • Kerry Smith and Bob Abt (NC State University)
  • Brian Murray and George Van Houtven (RTI)
  • Karen Abt, Tom Holmes, Dave Wear (US Forest
    Service)
  • many graduate students (Dave Butry)

5
I Valuing forest ecosystem services
6
Flood control in Madagascar
  • Mantadia National Park (ICDP)
  • Reduced flooding in the Vohitra basin
  • Reduced loss of paddy incomes downstream
  • Journal of Environmental Management (1997) 49
    277-295

7
Erosion control in Philippines and Indonesia
  • Agroforestry adoption by farmers with USAID
    support
  • On-site improvements in soils
  • Gains in on-site farm profits
  • Agricultural Economics (1998) 18 31-46
  • Journal of Sustainable Forestry (2002)
    15(2)63-85
  • Agroforestry adoption by farmers with ICDP
    support
  • On-site improvements in soils
  • Valuing Agroforestry Systems (2004) 165-182

8
Drought and erosion control in Eastern Indonesia
  • Ruteng National Park (ICDP), Flores, Indonesia
  • Reduction in downstream droughts and erosion
  • Gains in downstream farm profits and stated WTP
  • Environment and Development Economics (2001)
    6(1) 123-145
  • Water Resources Research (2001) 37(3) 771-778
  • Forests in a Market Economy (2003) 72 361-379
  • Savings in costs of collecting drinking water
  • Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment (2004)
    104(1)

9
Non timber forest products in Brazil and Indonesia
  • Tapajos National Forest, Brazil
  • Availability of non-timber forest products
  • Natural insurance from agricultural shocks and
    variability
  • Land Economics (2001) 77(4) 595-612
  • Siberut National Park (ICDP), Sumatra, Indonesia
  • Availability of non-timber forest products
  • Contribute to livelihoods of forest fringe
    communities
  • Conservation and Society (2003) 1(2) 209-222

10
Fuel wood in India and Indonesia
  • Ruteng National Park (ICDP), Indonesia
  • Availability of fuel wood
  • Substantive contribution to rural livelihoods
  • Environment and Development Economics (2004)
    9(2) 155-179
  • Village forests in Malnaad, Karnataka, India
  • Significant contribution to rural livelihoods
  • Collect less fuel wood from village forests if
    own forests
  • Forests in a Market Economy (2003) 72 259-282
  • Agroforestry adoption by farmers around Ruteng
    Park
  • Reduced collection of fuel wood from park forests
  • Valuing Agroforestry Systems (2004) 165-182

11
Water quality, carbon and biodiversity in the US
  • Payments for carbon-sequestration
  • Water quality co-benefits nation wide
  • Climatic Change (forthcoming)
  • Participation in NCs Natural Heritage Program
  • more significant and rare elements
    (biodiversity)
  • Journal of Forestry (2002) 100(4) 16-23

12
Forest amenities in southern US
  • Voluntary conservation by NIPF
  • old growth forests in southern US
  • Forest Science (2002) 47(3) 479-491
  • wildlife habitat in southern US
  • Forest Policy and Economics (2004) 6 243-260
  • scenic beauty in NC
  • bird and deer habitat in NC
  • tree diversity in NC
  • Forests in a Market Economy (2003) 72 243-258

13
II Estimating non-traditional outcomes of
conservation
14
On-going projects
  • Tropics forest conservation
  • Mosquito habitat and malaria control
  • Flores Island, Indonesia
  • Siberut Island, Indonesia
  • Brazil and India
  • Water quantity and quality and diarrhea control
  • Parental resources and childrens education
  • U.S.
  • Practical methods of ecosystem valuation
  • Landscape change and urban forests
  • Climate change and forest land values
  • Landowner payments and forest landscape impacts
  • Incentives for controlling forest fires

15
Poverty, Malaria, and Deforestation
16
Deforestation as a malaria risk factor
  • Creates habitat for disease carrying mosquitoes
  • changes in ecology - sunlight, puddles, pH
  • alters micro-climate - moisture, temperature
  • changes macro-climate new vectors
  • Triggers risky human behaviors
  • forest use
  • migration
  • irrigated farming
  • Indirectly impacts parasites
  • more resistant to insecticides (antibiotics)
  • new vectors and regions

17
Conventional research literature
  • Macro or regional assessments
  • Consequences and social costs
  • Exposure and treatment
  • Proximal determinants
  • Microeconomic approach to contextual issues
  • Human ecology view of causes
  • Preventive and community medicine
  • Ecological determinants

18
Ruteng malaria field setting
19
Ruteng malaria multiple data layers
  • Household socio-economic survey
  • malaria rates among children
  • demographic economic characteristics
  • Environmental statistics from remote-sensing
    records
  • rainfall, soils
  • primary (protected) secondary (regenerating)
    forests
  • Community level secondary administrative data
  • roads, markets
  • hospitals, clinics, doctors, schools
  • GIS integration

20
Is child malaria statistically correlated with
forest protection?
  age 0-5 age 5-10 age10-15 all
intercept 0.46 0.95 -1.29 0.67
primary forest -0.44 -0.29 -0.29 -0.33
secondary forest 0.7 0.29 0.16 0.32
male 0.58 0.05 -0.06 0.11
origin 0.28 0.41 0.62 0.31
wealth -0.19 -0.23 -0.08 -0.17
caregivers illness 0.6 0.78 0.93 0.74
caregivers age 0.04 0.002 0.03 0.02
clinic index -10.9 -6.17 -4.05 -6.53
poor housing 1.61 0.1 0.1 0.45
village area -0.59 -0.32 -0.13 -0.3
age0_5_dum -- -- -- -0.65
age5_10_dum -- -- -- -0.27
N 337 431 338 1106
21
Ruteng forest malaria findings
  • Positive correlates of child malaria rates
  • secondary forest cover
  • mothers illness
  • poorest quality housing
  • age
  • Negative correlates of malaria rates in children
  • primary forest cover
  • level of clinics (village)
  • village area
  • wealth
  • Policy implications
  • unintended health benefits of protected areas
  • conservation of primary forests in malaria-prone
    areas

22
III Building sustainable research programs
23
Evaluation and valuation methods
  • Estimation (data driven) options
  • Cross-sectional (ecological) evaluations
  • lagged values
  • aggregated (multi-level modeling)
  • Natural experiments (IV)
  • Quasi-experiments (retrospective / prospective)
  • Randomized (community) trials
  • Simulation (model / process based) options

24
Essential elements
  • Baseline pre-project conditions and behaviors
  • Covariates correlated with outcome or project
  • Comparisons (controls) counterfactual situation
  • Unambiguous and defensible measures
  • Sample size detect significant and
    differentiated impacts
  • Confounders mimic projects and mask impacts

25
Confounders
  • Properties of confounders
  • correlated with outcome and project
  • not in the causal chain (apriori theory)
  • persist after controlling for omitted variables
  • unbalanced across project and control groups
  • Potential confounders of conservation programs
  • socio-cultural behaviors and collective action
  • other programs and policies
  • unobserved environmental characteristics
  • historical trends

26
Sample interventions (projects)
  • Conventional (Indirect)
  • Parks, ICDPs National Forests
  • Training and education
  • Economic alternatives
  • Newer (Direct)
  • Conservation contracts
  • Direct payments
  • Forest certification
  • Conservation corridors

27
Sample outcomes
  • Conventional
  • biodiversity
  • carbon
  • watershed services
  • ecotourism
  • Newer (in vogue)
  • rural livelihoods
  • environmental health
  • human capital
  • Intermediate outcomes
  • forest area
  • social capital

28
Evaluations in the works
  • Quasi-experiments
  • Costa Ricas PSA (retrospective)
  • IADB road across Acre, Brazil (prospective)
  • Randomized community trials
  • Direct payments for forest conservation
  • Environmental education near protected areas

29
Evaluation of Costa Ricas PSA - I
  • Rationale Costa Rica as a laboratory
  • Program para Servicios Ambientales (PSA)
  • Continuing deforestation
  • Unpaid environmental services
  • Difficult to construct counterfactual
  • self-selection due to volunteering
  • targeting by program administrators
  • Objectives test hypothesis that payments
    increase
  • net area of protected ecosystem
  • net household income

30
Evaluation of Costa Ricas PSA - II
  • Methods
  • Outcome forest cover income
  • Intervention PSA contracts
  • Counterfactual matched control
  • estimate propensity to participate
  • political economy and technology adoption theory
  • verify match
  • Impact estimate difference-in-difference
  • Data
  • Satellite imagery (Arturo Sanchez, Canada)
  • 4500 PSA contracts (Edgar Ortiz, FONAFIFO)
  • 5000-10000 surveys (RTI, GSU, NCSU)

31
Evaluation of Costa Ricas PSA - III
  • Expected results
  • Impact estimates
  • Policy advice
  • Rich data set
  • Field tested methodology
  • Local capacity building
  • Current status
  • Partners and data
  • Working papers and M.S. theses
  • Revise and resubmit from funding agencies

32
Program of research
  • Policy advise based on inter-disciplinary science
  • evidence based practice
  • graduate students with interdisciplinary training
  • institutions with significant field presence and
    commitment
  • Series of long term evaluations
  • different interventions (individually and
    jointly)
  • different services and goods
  • many ecosystems, many countries
  • systematic collection and analysis of
    longitudinal data
  • Complemented by
  • process evaluations
  • monitoring and surveillance

33
Take home messages
  • Identify, quantify, and monetize ecosystem
    services
  • health benefits of forest protection
  • other health and non-health impacts on children
  • Conduct conservation policy experiments
  • series of long term, large-scale impact
    evaluations
  • mix with monitoring and surveillance (understand
    the process)
  • Treat conservation as an intermediate outcome
  • rural livelihoods, health and education
  • establish the support of the local people
  • Rely on sound science for conservation policy
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