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New Social Risks and Welfare State Reform Is the Future American?

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Title: New Social Risks and Welfare State Reform Is the Future American?


1
New Social Risks and Welfare State ReformIs the
Future American?
  • Peter Taylor-Gooby
  • P.F.Taylor-Gooby_at_kent.ac.uk

2
The Welfare State
  • A distinctive European project
  • Ineluctable challenges
  • Technical
  • EU
  • Moral
  • WS as an interruption market liberalism as the
    normal business of the West
  • Relevant to Norway rich, equal, cohesive

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6
The technical critique
  • Rising costs diminishing resources
  • Ageing, dependency and household changes
  • Labour market, globalisation and government
    capacity

7
Assessment
  • Regimes not convergent
  • Innovation continues
  • No obvious race to the bottom
  • Permanent austerity?

8
EU The view from the ECB
  • Greater flexibility in labour, product and
    financial markets together with sound fiscal
    positions and wage moderation will support the
    objective of maintaining price stability and will
    create stable conditions to foster employment
    creation. Such an interaction of policies is
    the best possible way to enhance the long-term
    welfare of the citizens of the Euro
    area Duisenberg 2002

9
EU Assessment
  • Direct social policy harmonisation unsuccessful
  • SEA and pension restructuring in 1990s
  • Primacy of a dynamic knowledge-based economy
  • But soft law, ECJ, OMC preserving key national
    differences
  • Future uncertain

10
Declining possibility of welfare
  • End of history, Hegelian empiricism
  • Social capital individual and institutional
    trust
  • Not obviously correlated with welfare spend
  • Not obviously lower for state provision

11
Trust state and private services (UK)
NHS hospital 59
Private hospital 65
State school 70
Fee-paying school 79
State pension 50
Private pension 56
12
Why Europe is not the US Alesina
  • Geography and race an unreconstituted C18th
    liberal constitution, a divided working class,
    limited left politics
  • Scientificity of statistical method the 50
    claim
  • Influences European debates
  • Diversity the impact of globalisation on the
    citizenry

13
The point
  • US-Europe differences have more to do with the
    racial divisions than cultural differences. As
    Europe has become more diverse, Europeans have
    increasingly been susceptible to exactly the same
    form of racist, anti-welfare demagoguery that
    worked so well in the US. We shall see whether
    the generous European welfare state can really
    survive in a heterogeneous society

14
Goodhart in Prospect Feb 2-004
  • .sharing and solidarity can conflict with
    diversity an especially acute dilemma for
    progressives who want plenty of both solidarity -
    high social cohesion and generous welfare - and
    diversity - equal respect for peoples, values
    and ways of life the left's recent love affair
    with diversity may come at the expense of the
    values and even the people that it once
    championed

15
Diversity and social spending Alesina 64
Race fractionalisation -7.54
Per capita GDP 1.92
Majoritarian -2.31
pop 15-64 0.33
Latin American -2.42
Caribbean -3.00
Asian -0.09
Constant -25.00
R sq. 0.69
16
Politics matters in Europe
Correlations with social spending Correlations with social spending
Race index -.17
Left in govt. .58
Race, controlling for Left in govt -.06
17
Politics, diversity etc in Europe
Race fractionalisation -.30
Left parties in cabinet .51
Pluralism .13
Pop 15-64 -.24
R sq .46
18
The distinctiveness of Europe
  • Various arguments imply that the future is
    American
  • European traditions of welfare seem to be
    surviving thus far
  • US political traditions set against state welfare
  • European traditions can resist such trends

19
Choice and welfareUK version
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