Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 7c0458-ODdlY



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks

Description:

AR Subbiah, RIMES/ADPC Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SASCOF 1), Pune, India, 13 -15 April, 2010 – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:49
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 28
Provided by: Srin46
Learn more at: http://iri.columbia.edu
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks


1
Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks
  • Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning
    System (RIMES)/ADPC
  • AR Subbiah, RIMES/ADPC

SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SASCOF 1),
Pune, India, 13 -15 April, 2010
2
RIMES
  • (RIMES) was formally established on 30 April
    2009, with the signing (at Male) of an
    international cooperation agreement by Cambodia,
    Comoros, Lao PDR, Maldives, and Seychelles
  • Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th
    September 2009)
  • Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various
    stages of consideration and approval for signing
    the cooperation agreement
  • RIMES aims to provide regional early warning
    services, and build capacity of its Member States
    in the early warning of tsunami and
    hydro-meteorological hazards.

3
7 Million commuters per day, highest passenger
density
4
The Interface
  • Indonesian farmers Is it going to be a good
    rainy season or bad to be used in the
    decision to plant rice or maize
  • Reservoir management
  • Embankment management for preparation to flood
    risks
  • Glacial lake monitoring flood risks
  • Power management
  • Insurance and re-insurance
  • ..
  • Global, Regional and National efforts - variety
    of tools Modeling Systems, Downscaling techniques
    and Empirical Methods
  • Still confronted with low skill, limited
    skill, uncertainties, too much noise

User needs modulate the Climate Info to be
generated handshake
5
Climate Information Applications at Community
Level
  • The six-step CFA methodology consists of
  • Assessment of user needs and existing capacities
    of national institutions to meet these needs
    (need/capacity assessments)
  • Assessment of relevance of latest scientific
    information to meet these needs (assessment of
    available science/technology)
  • Developing partnerships and enhancing capacities
    of national institutions to generate climate
    information
  • Institutional development to communicate
    information to end users (institutionalization of
    end-to-end system pilot demonstrations,
    replication)
  • Applying information to enable pro-active
    decision making
  • Monitoring and evaluation of applicability of
    information

6
Conceptual Steps in the End-to-End System for
Communities
Overall vulnerability reduction through
development interventions
Poverty alleviation and sustainable development
7
Managing climate risks by connecting science,
institutions, and society
Global, Regional Model Products
Regional Products
Probabilistic location specific hydro-met geo
information
Risk Thresholds
Impact Outlooks
Hazard Derivatives
Risk Management tools
RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities
ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO
8
The Monsoon Forum process
9
Features of the Monsoon/ Climate Forum
  • To be conducted at least twice a year (just
    before monsoon onset post-season verification)
  • Organized around a regular phenomenon (i.e.
    monsoon)
  • Multi-sectoral and multi-level (national
    regional forums)
  • National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS) as
    convener of the event
  • Event-based interaction but with long-term goals

10
Some examples of forecast provider user forums in Asia Some examples of forecast provider user forums in Asia
Philippines Climate Forum (non-targeted, various sectors) Local Climate Forum (provincial level)
Myanmar Monsoon Forum
Mongolia Winter/Spring Forum
Indonesia National Monsoon Forum Science and Policy Forum (district-level policy making) Climate Field School for Farmers (community-level)
Timor-Leste National Working Group on Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation
Vietnam Seasonal Climate Forum
Sri Lanka National Monsoon Forum
Bangladesh National Monsoon Forum
11
Forums for climate information providers and Users
  • National
  • Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological
    and hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate
    users - e.g. agriculture and water resources
    ministries)
  • Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS,
    agriculture and water resources ministries, water
    regulatory board, dam operators, water
    concessionaires, hydropower agency)
  • Sub-national Provincial working group
    (provincial meteorological and hydrological
    station, agriculture and irrigation departments,
    universities, local government units, NGOs)
  • Local
  • Local climate forum (local meteorological and
    hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation
    departments, local government unit, local NGOs,
    farmers groups)
  • Field schools (provincial and local
    meteorological and hydrological station,
    agriculture extension, farmers)

12
Monsoon Forum objectives
  • Ensure that forecast products, including their
    uncertainties and limitations, are understood by
    and communicated to users on a regular basis
  • Provide a platform for inter-agency coordination
    of policies and programs for dealing with
    potential impacts of climate-related hazards on
    seasonal basis
  • Encourage climate forecast applications for
    mitigating risks in various climate-sensitive
    sectors
  • Provide a platform for long-term process of
    understanding risks posed by/opportunities
    brought about by past, current, and future
    climate

13
Institutional mechanism Indonesia example
IPB (Bogor Agril. Univ.)
Directorate of Plant Protection
14
Climate Risk Management Project Current
variability and future change
  • Sparse networks and discontinuity in climate
    observations
  • Data rescue efforts required
  • Capacities for data analysis
  • Validation and careful interpretation of regional
    model results
  • User interfaces with sector agencies

15
Addressing Key Gaps
Societal Risks
GAPS
1
Forecast products
Operational Forecast Institutions
GAPS
2
Addressed through CFAB type technology
Research output
Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for
customized solutions Building Institutional
Partnerships Capacities to evolve solutions
Research Institutions, Universities
16
Success will depend on
  • Willingness of users to participate and
    constantly engage the meteorological agency
  • Understanding of the user context on the part of
    the national hydro-meteorological agency
  • Communication plan between forecast users and
    producers - regularity is essential
  • Mechanism for receiving and utilizing climate
    information within user agencies
  • Mechanism for giving feedback to meteorological
    agency, processing, and acting upon feedback

17
thank you
18
Sample typical example from farming sector
  • Critical climate risks are as follows
  • Wet season cropping (November/December-March/April
    ) Flooding in January/February is a major
    problem. The probability of flooding during this
    period is more than 50.
  • Farmers at the tail-end of the irrigation system
    receive water only in December, while planting
    has to start in November. Otherwise, the paddy
    will not be tall enough to survive flooding in
    February.
  • Dry season cropping (April/May-August/September)
    Droughts in June to July is the major problem
    during this season. About 4,000 ha, or 60 of the
    total rice paddy area is vulnerable to drought.
  • Tools built around down-scaled seasonal
    predictions are very useful

19
Forecast Applications Timor-Leste
  • Program focused on Maubara sub-district in
    Liquica District, which is located on the north
    coast.
  • Climate Field Schools conducted

20
Sri Lanka National Monsoon Forum
  • 2nd National Forum on 28th November 2009
  • Convener Department of Meteorology (DOM)
  • Partner Agencies Irrigation Department /
    National Building Research Organisation (NBRO)
  • User Agencies Government Agencies / Academic
    Institutions / Science Founation / Sri Lankan Red
    Cross / NGOs / Media (19)

21
Key Recommendations
  • Information on parameters for better decision
    making
  • Need based forecast Ocean state forecast,
    lightning activity (User agencies)
  • Improved coordination between key early warning
    agencies
  • Joint projects development (pollution monitoring)
  • Study to pilot the signal system (Color coding)
    for Tsunami and Cyclone

22
(No Transcript)
23
Climate Risk manifestations what are we worried
about?
  • i. Alteration of the mean state of climate
  • ii. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme
    climate events
  • iii. Combination of i. and ii.
  • iv. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of
    historically unexpected and sudden climate
    change-induced patterns)

24
Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)
  • Evolved long lead forecast- up to 10 days
    forecast models in collaboration with Georgia
    Tech University, USA
  • Tested the models in 2004
  • Operational on experimental basis since 2006
  • ADPC Project
  • Support - USAID
  • Partners - CARE, Bangladesh, Univ. of Colarado,
    Georgia Tech Earth Atmospheric Sciences BMD,
    Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of
    Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)

25
Brahmaputra Discharge Forecasts 20071-10 day
flood forecasts using ECMWF precipitation
forecasts
26
Institutional and community responses on 2007
flood forecast
Discussion of options with local communities,
CBOs, local working group members, networks
Incorporated into customized local model
Communication to Disaster Emergency Group
Flood forecast issued for two boundary locations
Communication to project partners
Information to relief agencies about the extent
of flooding
Communication to stakeholders and local DMC
members
24 Jul
25 Jul
26 Jul
30 Jul
2 Aug
23 Jul
21 Jul
22 Jul
Local institutions prepared response and relief
plans
Community in low lands reserved their food,
drinking water, fodder requirements
Local Disaster Management Committee and
Volunteers prepared for rescue
Relief distribution started in affected locations
Aid agencies arranged logistics and begin
dialogue with district administration
Flood water exceeded danger level on 28th July
Low lying areas are flooded on 29th July
27
  • Willingness of users to participate and
    constantly engage the meteorological agency
  • Understanding of the user context on the part of
    the national hydro-meteorological agency
  • Communication plan between forecast users and
    producers - regularity is essential
  • Mechanism for receiving and utilizing climate
    information within user agencies
  • Mechanism for giving feedback to meteorological
    agency, processing, and acting upon feedback
About PowerShow.com