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Friday Weather Discussion

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Title: Friday Weather Discussion


1
Friday Weather Discussion
  • Clark Evans
  • 27 March 2015

2
MJO Phase Diagram
Peak amplitude on record (1974-present) 4.265
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
3
MJO Tropical Wave Evolution
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_mod
es/index.htm
4
OLR MJO and Anomaly
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
5
850/200 hPa u MJO and Anomaly
850 hPa at left, 200 hPa at right.
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
6
850 hPa u Full, Anomaly
Full field at left, anomaly (from 1989-2008
climo) field at right. http//www.atmos.albany.edu
/student/carl/weather/
7
Equatorial Pacific Ocean State
http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlin
k/MJO/enso.shtml http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconn
ections/enso/indicators/sea-temp.php
8
ENSO Forecasts
the dynamical models are anticipating a
moderately strong event to develop in the
Northern Hemispheres late spring and summer.
They are notoriously bad for seeing through the
spring predictability barrier, though, so it
should be noted that the statistical models are
more conservative, predicting a neutral-to-weak
El Niño event. IRI March 2015 Climate Briefing,
http//iri.columbia.edu/news/march-2015-el-nino/
http//iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/fore
casts/enso/current/
9
April-May-June 2015 Forecasts
http//iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/fore
casts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
10
Winter 2014-15 In Review
11
Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Temperature
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-ma
ps/
12
Dec 2013 Feb 2014 Temperature
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-ma
ps/
13
Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Temperature
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
14
Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Temperature
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
15
Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Precipitation
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
16
Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Precipitation
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
17
Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Snowfall
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
18
Drought Monitor
http//droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
19
500 hPa Height, Anomaly
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December
2014 23 March 2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
data/composites/day/
20
850 hPa Temperature, Anomaly
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December
2014 23 March 2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
data/composites/day/
21
Five Periods of Interest
  • 5-27 December (warm)
  • 29 December 14 January (cold)
  • 15-31 January (warm)
  • 1 February 6 March (cold)
  • 8-20 March (warm)

22
A Mild December
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
23
A Mild December
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 5-27 December
2014 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/
day/
24
A Chilly New Year
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
25
A Chilly New Year
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 29 December
2014 14 January 2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/ps
d/data/composites/day/
26
Warmer and Dry in Late January
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
27
Warmer and Dry in Late January
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 15-31 January
2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/
day/
28
A Persistent Mid-Winters Chill
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
29
A Persistent Mid-Winters Chill
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 February to
6 March 2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/com
posites/day/
30
Spring into March
http//mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd
.jsp
31
Spring into March
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 8-20 March
2015 http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/
day/
32
Possible Pattern Influences
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/pha
se.Last90days.html http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pr
oducts/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/
33
Possible Pattern Influences
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/dai
ly_ao_index/ao_index.html
34
Possible Pattern Influences
SLP -
SLP
SLP -
SLP
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/dai
ly_ao_index/loading.html http//www.atmos.albany.e
du/student/heathera/2015.html
35
Possible Pattern Influences
SLP -
SLP
SLP -
SLP
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/dai
ly_ao_index/loading.html http//www.atmos.albany.e
du/student/heathera/2015.html
36
Possible Pattern Influences
NAO very similar to AO during boreal winter
PNA in winter below- (above-) normal heights in
C. Pacific (western N. America).
http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlin
k/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
37
Possible Pattern Influences
http//cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ ht
tp//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/
MJO/enso.shtml
38
Some Scientific Questions
  • Why does the spring predictability barrier for
    ENSO exist, and will the current El Niño
    intensify or not?
  • Why has anomalous cold occurred over North
    America and nowhere else in the last two winters?
  • Why did the mid-latitude pattern evolve as it did
    on sub-seasonal scales? Can we even identify why?
  • What caused the MJO to achieve such a high
    amplitude this March, and what does it mean?
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