The Power Sector in the Russian Far East: Recent Status and Plans

1
The Power Sector in the Russian Far East Recent
Status and Plans

• Ruslan GULIDOV
• Economic Research Institute, FEB, RAS
• Alexander OGNEV
• Vostokenergo Far Eastern Branch of InterRAO

2007 Asian Energy Security Project
Meeting Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in
the Northeast Asia Region Tsinghua University,
China October 31 November 2, 2007
2
Outline

• Restructuring Program in Russia
• Particular Features of Electricity Restructuring
  in the Russian Far East
• Electricity Demand Supply Trends in the Region
• Electricity Export Projects Status and Prospects
• Russias and the RFE Nuclear Status and Plans in
  Brief

3
Electric Power Restructuring in Russia

• Decision on Completion of Electric Power
  Restructuring was adopted by Government and
  Stakeholders (October 2007)
• Vertically-Integrated System of Electricity
  Supply has been already divided into competitive
  (generation, sale) and monopolistic
  (transmission, dispatching) sectors
• National Power Company RAO UES of Russia will
  be finally restructured and liquidated by July
  2008
• Governmental control will be keeping on Federal
  Grid company, Central Dispatching company,
  Hydro-OGK, Rosenergoatom (nuclear) and some other
  entities

4
RFEs Features

• Vast territory (7 mln sq. km), uneven economic
  development, low population (6.3 mln)
• No economic and technical opportunities to have
  unified power grid (UPG) in the region
• UPG operates only within the Southern part of
  the Russian Far East

5
Particular Features of RFEs Electricity
Restructuring

• After discussions it has been recognized that
  there is no conditions for electric power
  competition in the RFE (at least) during
  transition period to the electricity market
• Duration of transition period is keeping
  uncertain
• Two types of electricity market are currently in
  operation in the RFE
• Single Producer is in remote, separate districts
  in northern areas
• Single Buyer market is in UPG zone
• Decision made that all operating companies
  (including generation and sale) are kept under
  the federal government control (52 and more) for
  a while
• Electricity export contracts and development of
  export infrastructure have been appointed to
  national single operator InterRAO Close
  Corporation

6
Electricity Supply Demand Trends and Plans

• Positive dynamics of economic activity (4.6 p.a.
  over 2000-2006)
• Low growth rate of electricity consumption (4.3
  totally in 2000-2006)
• Electric power generation capacities are
  increasing
• 4th unit at Khabarovskya CHP-3 (180 MW,
  Dec.2006), 5th and 6th units at Bureyskaya HPP
  (670 MW, June Oct. 2007) were commissioned
• Blagoveschenskaya CHP, Komsomolskaya CHP-3,
  Khabarovskaya CHP-2 to be expanded
• New TPPs in Sov.Gavan (Khabarovskiy Krai) and
  in the south of Primorskiy Krai to be constructed
  
• Shifting in primary energy production mix
• Khabarovskaya CHP-1, Khabarovskaya CHP-2
  ? Nikolaevskaya CHP to be switched to
  natural gas
• Network strengthening in the Southern part of the
  RFE
• Investments in power grid totaled 0.9 bln over
  2001-2006
• Investment programs approved in fuel-fired
  electricity generation and transmission lines
  3.8 bln over 2008-2015

7
Elect. consumption in Russia and the RFE
overview and outlook
Russian Federation
Max Path 2006-2010 6.0, 2011-2015 4.9,
2016-2020 4.6 Base Path 2006-2010 4.9,
2011-2015 3.6, 2016-2020 3.7

Bln kWh
The Russian Far East
Max Path 2006-2010 3.8, 2011-2015 7.7,
2016-2020 9.0 Base Path 2006-2010 2.4,
2011-2015 4.2, 2016-2020 6.5

Bln kWh
8
Capacity Additions in the RFE Base Scenario
2006-2010 2006-2010 2011-2015 2011-2015 2016-2020 2016-2020
GW GW GW
NPPs - - - - 0,7 18,4
HPPs 1,2 80,0 1,0 15,6 2,2 57,9
TPPs, including 0,3 20,0 5,4 84,4 0,9 23,7
coal-fired 0,3 20,0 4,3 67,2 0,5 13,2
gas-fired - - 1,1 17,2 0,4 10,5
Total 1,5 100,0 6,4 100,0 3,8 100,0

• Source General Plan for Electric Power Industry
  up to 2020

9
Installed Capacity and Production Structure by
Feedstock (Base Scenario)
Installed Capacity
2006
2020
GW
0.05
0.7
NPPs
32.5
36.8
4.0
8.7
44.5
HPPs
51.3
6.3
10.4
TPPs (coal)
0.4
15.8
2.0
3.7
TPPs (gas)
2.9
15.8
12.3
23.5
Production
2020
2006
Bln kWh
0.1
1.7
NPPs
32.6
13.1
33.5
HPPs
56.2
22.6
50.4
TPPs (coal)
10.9
4.4
12.3
0.3
TPPs (gas)
40.2
97.9
10
Electricity Border Trade with
China

• Three inter-state power transmission lines
  (110-220kV) currently exists to supply
  electricity from the RFE (Amurskaya Oblast) to
  Northeast China (as of 2006 0.5 bln kWh)
• In 2003 Russian InterRAO and Chinese "Sirius"
  signed a Framework Agreement on electricity
  supplies of 13 billion kWh over 2004-2013
• Border trade has a history of 12 years but are so
  far controversial issue
• export contracts does not include short and
  long-term price formula
• contract duration is one year, once a year
  finished a new one-year contract to be concluded
  
• an export price used to be lower than that for
  domestic consumers
• Since February 2007 China Russia border trade
  has been suspended due to electricity price
  disagreements

11
Large-Scale Electricity Export from Russia to
China

• In November 2006 Joint Pre-Feasibility Study of
  the project of large-scale electric supply from
  Eastern Russia to China was prepared. Capital
  costs 18 bln. Phases are
• 2008-2012 the expansion of the frontier
  electricity trade by 3.6-4.5 bln kWh annually (a
  500 kV line will be built to Heilongjiang)
• 2012-2015 two coal-fired TPP (totally 3.6 GW)
  to be commissioned in the RFE so that to expand
  annual electricity export up to 22.5 bln kWh (a
  500 kV line will be built to Liaoning)
• After 2015 to build coal-fired 7.2 GW in the
  RFE and Eastern Siberia so that to enlarge annual
  export up to 60.0 bln kWh (a 800 kV line will be
  built to Beijing area)
• In November 2006 the contract for deliveries in
  the frame of the 1st stage of the project was
  signed

12
Large-Scale Electricity Export from Russia to
China
Notation Conventions
Thermal Power Plant
DC Power Line
AC Power Line
AC/ DC Converter
13
Prospects for DPRK Russia Electricity Trade
Background

• ROK DPRK RFE electricity interconnections
  were being under discussions at various levels in
  2001-2004
• Project profile considered was as follows
• construction of 500kV AC Transmission Line
  Vladivostok - Chongiin (200 mln)
• DC Transmission Line 500-600 kV Vladivostok
  Seoul
• Due to some political and economic reasons the
  discussions was suspended

Russia DPRK 500 kV transmission line
suggested, 380 km
Chongiin
Extension to the border with ROK 900 km,
?500-600 kV
14
Prospects for DPRK Russia Electricity Trade
Current Status

• Since 2007 favorable conditions are being emerged
  to recover RFE DPRK interconnection project
• APEC 2012 Summit in Vladivostok will require the
  construction of generation and transmission
  facilities (TPP, SS, TL)
• new electricity demand aroused in the area of
  DPRK Russia border
• DPRK RFE railroad section planned
• two ports of Primorskiy Krai (Poset and
  Zarubino) applied for more power to consume
• crude oil export terminal project and expansion
  of seaport in RaSon FEZ
• Political support of the project from DPRK
  Russia Intergovernmental Commission (4th Meeting
  in Moscow, March 19-23, 2007)
• Real prospects of electricity demand and
  political conditions make RFE DPRK
  interconnection project commercially viable

15
Russias Nuclear Power Sector
The Russian Far East Bilibinskaya NPP 4x12 MW,
138.4 thous. kWh 130.8 Gcal

• Russia 10 NPPs, 31 power units with total
  capacity of 23,2 GW (11 that of Russia),
  electricity production of 154.8 bln kWh (16 that
  of Russia), 5 of nuclear energy fraction in
  Russias TPES (as of 2006)
• 15 PWR (9 VVER-1000 6 VVER-440)
• 15 Channel Boiling Reactors (11 RMBK-1000 4
  EGP-6)
• 1 Fast Neutron Reactor BN-600

16
Bilibinskaya NPP CHP

• Single small Russias NPP of public utility
• Provides 30 of electricity heat supplies in
  Chukotka, 0.4 of those in the RFE
• Actual Capacity Factor 32.5, MCF 79
• 4 EGP-12 reactors (G-I) were commissioned over
  1974-1976

• Lifetime period of the units as designed had to
  be completed in 2004-2006
• After auditing the lifetime period was prolonged
  up to 2009/2010/2016 (subject to unit)
• Based on the Federal Program on Nuclear Energy
  Sector Development up to 2015 it is scheduled to
  decommission BNPP over 2019-2021

17
Outlook for Nuclear Energy Development in Russia
Expansion and Decommissioning Projections
Nuclear Generation Projection
Source General Plan for Electric Power Industry
up to 2020 Note All projections are based on
Rosenergoatom Company capabilities
18
Nuclear Energy Development in the
RFE Background

• In 1980s, early 1990s a range of projects and
  intentions to site some NPPs in the Russias Far
  East was under discussion
• Nuclear Energy Inland Area in Primorskiy Krai (2
  NPPs of firstly 1.28 then 2.56 GW each and
  NPP-CHP of 1.28 GW 6.4 GW as combined)
• Nuclear Energy Coastal Area in Primorskiy Krai
  (NPP of firstly 1.28 GW, then 2.56 GW as well as
  2 NPPs of 2.56 GW each 11.52 GW)
• Nuclear Energy Area in Khabarovskiy Krai (NPP of
  2.56 GW each and NPP-CHP of 1.28 GW 3.84 GW as
  combined)
• Sitting Small Floating NPPs in many territories
  of North, Northeast Russia
• In reality only two NPP was under consideration
• The Feasibility Study was done for Far Eastern
  NPP (Khabarovskiy Krai) with 2.56 GW (4 VVER
  -640) (1994)
• The Pre-Feasibility Study was done for
  Primorskaya NPP with 2.56 GW (4 VVER-640) (1996)

19
Nuclear Energy Development in the
RFE Current Status

• Based on General Plan for Electric Power Industry
  up to 2020 it is planned to construct two NPPs in
  the RFE over 2016-2020
• Pevekskaya Floating NPP with 70 MW (KLT-40S) to
  replace Bilibinskaya NPP in Chukotskiy Autonomous
  Okrug
• Primorskaya NPP with 600 MW (2 x VBER-300) to
  meet the increase in domestic power electricity
  demand
• Primorskaya NPP could be constructed by IPP to
  supply New aluminum plant planned in Primorskiy
  Krai
• Up to 2016 in Russia it is planned to produce 7
  KLT floating reactors. Probably more than one of
  them will be sited in the Northern territories of
  the RFE

20
Thank you for attention!

• Dr. Ruslan Gulidov,
• Economic Research Institute, FEB, RAS
• Khabarovsk, Russia
• gulidov_at_ecrin.ru
• Dr. Alexavder Ognev
• Vostokenergo Far Eastern Branch, InterRAO
  Close Corporation
• oay1_at_mail.ru