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NORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

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Title: ASSESSING ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE Author: hgalbraith Last modified by: galbraithh Created Date: 1/15/2012 3:27:48 PM Document presentation ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: NORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT


1
NORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
  • Hector Galbraith
  • National Wildlife Federation

2
NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA SCALE AND OBJECTIVES
  • 13 states and DC
  • 260,000 miles2
  • map variation in habitat vulnerabilities across
    region
  • provide states with regional context for
    conservation decisions
  • Identify adaptation options
  • Build capacities within state agencies

3
NEAFWA REGIONAL VA - PROCESS
  1. Convene expert panel of state, federal, NGO
    personnel
  2. Develop predictive habitat vulnerability model
  3. Test model and modify
  4. Form habitat expert workgroups
  5. Select habitats for analyses
  6. Run model on habitats

4
THE NEAFWA HABITAT VULNERABILITY MODEL
1. Vulnerability to climate change Index
2. Vulnerability to non-climate stressors Index
3. Interactions
5. Confidence evaluation
6. Narratives
4. Overall future vulnerability Index
5
HABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS
  • Alpine tundra
  • Northern hardwood forest
  • Southern/central oak forests
  • Pitch pine barrens
  • Boreal bogs
  • Southern spruce fir forest
  • Shrub swamp
  • Emergent marsh
  • Montane spruce fir forest

6
REGIONAL ZONES
7
Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones
Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV
Acadian-Appalachian Alpine Tundra Highly Vulnerable
Acadian-Appalachian Montane Spruce-Fir Forest Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable
Laurentian-Acadian Northern Hardwood Forest Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable
Central Mixed Oak-Pine Forests Least Vulnerable Least Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Vulnerable
Pitch Pine Barrens Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable
Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain Basin Peat Swamp Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable
Central and Southern Appalachian Spruce-Fir Forest Critically Vulnerable
Boreal-Laurentian Bog Highly Vulnerable Highly Vulnerable
Shrub Swamp Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
Emergent Marsh Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
8
CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!
  • Some habitats likely to be most vulnerable to
    non-climate stressors
  • Pitch pine scrub oak forests
  • Atlantic white cedar forests

9
Habitat Climate change Vulnerability Non-climate change vulnerability
Tundra Highly Vulnerable Vulnerable
Pine Barrens Least Vulnerable Vulnerable
Shrub Swamp Less Vulnerable Vulnerable
Southern Spruce-Fir Critically Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable
10
REPORTS ON NEAFWA WEBSITE
  • Projected climate change in Northeast
  • Building the NEAFWA habitat model
  • Coastal ecological system vulnerabilities
  • Cold water fish habitat vulnerabilities
  • 17 upland and wetland habitat vulnerabilities
  • Habitat vulnerabilities in NY State

11
NEXT STEPS
  • Modify model for use at smaller scales
  • Develop rapid assessment process
  • Make available and provide training for land
    trusts, municipalities, smaller conservation
    organizations
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