Technologies for meeting the global challenges of the 21st century Priorities for the current decade

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Technologies for meeting the global challenges of
the 21st centuryPriorities for the current
decade

• J.P.CONTZEN
• IST, LISBOA

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (1)

• Two main challenges beyond, or together with,
  economic growth promote human development and
  reduce threats to the environment
• Human development i.e. raising the level of
  well-being of a growing number of people
• Improve health conditions
• Fight hunger, poverty, social exclusion,
  illiteracy
• Ensure peace and stability

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (2)

• Threats to the environment
• Remediate to the scarcity of renewable and
  non-renewable resources
• Water stress
• Food production stress
• Energy stress
• People are no longer scarce, but nature is

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (3)

• Threats to the environment (cont.)
• Control growing urbanization
• Fight land degradation
• Fight environmental pollution greenhouse gases,
  Pops, EDCs in water, air, soil

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (4)

• A few figures
• Poverty in the last 2 decades, the world output
  grew by more than 20, but the number of poor
  people has risen also by more than 20. The
  poorest fifth of humanity survives on less than
  1 a day
• Hunger 790 million people are living in hunger
• Social exclusion at global level, income from
  work rose only by 2, as opposed to a 59
  increase in income from capital

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (5)

• A few figures (cont.)
• Health
• Taking care of elderly people over the past 50
  years, the life expectancy has risen more than in
  the last 4,000 years, leading to new geriatric
  issues
• Combating infectious diseases
• A young child dies every three seconds,
  essentially from infectious diseases

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (6)

• A few figures (cont.)
• AIDS 33.6 million people living with AIDS, 3
  million dead in 2000
• Resurrection of TB, about 1.5 million people die
  each year from TB. Nearly 2 billion people live
  with latent TB infection
• Measles lead to some 900 000 fatalities per year,
  malaria kills 3,000 people every day

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (7)

• A few figures (cont.)
• Water Stress only 2.5 of world water can
  support human life. Water use during 20th Century
  grew at more than the rate of population
  increase. In 2025, 2/3 of world population could
  be under water stress conditions stress starts
  when more than 10 of renewable fresh water
  resources are used already now 460 million
  people are above the 40

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (8)

• A few figures (cont.)
• Land Degradation and Food Production Stress 1.9
  Billion hectares of land worldwide (size of US
  Canada) are currently affected by degradation,
  threatening the food security of more than 900
  million people in 100 countries

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (9)

• A few figures (cont.)
• Energy Stress still 2 billion people have no
  access to modern energy services and the world
  population is expected to double in the next
  century. One challenge is to make energy
  available to the poor at prices that they can
  cope with, another challenge is to provide CLEAN
  energy everywhere. The objectives of the Kyoto
  Protocol cover only the tip of the iceberg

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (10)

• Should the description of these challenges lead
  to a pessimistic outlook? No!
• The future lies in a combination of good
  governance at all levels (local communities,
  regions, nations, continents, world) and of
  appropriate use of technologies
•  May the rains come on time! May there be a
  bountiful harvest! May the world be contented!
  May the rulers be righteous!
• Ancient Pali verse

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (11)

• Technologies have become a major instrument of
  economic and social policy and could become the
  major force of social change in the next 10 years
• A stronger link between the politicians, the
  representatives and the ST community is urgently
  required while paradoxically it is the time when
  the gap in the understanding of ST by
  decision-makers and the civil society is at its
  lowest level since decades

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The global challenges of the 21st Century (12)

• Technologies have already supported global
  development in many areas growing economic
  wealth, lessened work, life expectancy, extension
  of the available energy resource base, increase
  in agricultural productivity
• Technologies have extended so far the carrying
  capacity of our Planet. Over the next two
  generations, we will need technologies that can
  more than double the capacity of humankind to
  perform activities in ways that do not further
  degrade the life support systems of our planet

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The role of technologies (1)

• What is the technological offer capable of
  meeting such challenge? An combination of
• further advancements in
• Information and Communications technologies
• Biotechnologies
• Energy technologies
• Materials
• and
• the emergence of Nanotechnologies

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The role of technologies (2)

• Information and Communications technologies
• Some challenges
• Improved accessibility10 PC, Internet access in
  own language, widespread low-cost access lines
• e-Commerce for all, instrument of economic and
  social development
• e-Health the virtual medical city
• e-Education virtual Higher Education, lifelong
  learning
• e-Government a new life for democracy?

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The role of technologies (3)

• Information and Communications technologies
  (cont.)
• Some dangers
• The digital divide poor/rich, young/old
• The loss of cultural diversity
• The development of cyber-crime
• The loss of privacy
• The domination of economic oligopoles

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The role of technologies (4)

• Biotechnologies
• Biotechnology is currently a major driving force
  in technological innovation. Its impact in the
  socio-economic world is significant and it offers
  the promises, if adequately managed, to lead to a
  win-win scenario, combining economic and social
  benefits and reducing the North-South divide.

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The role of technologies (5)

• Biotechnologies (cont.)
• It is a big source of money
• global biotechnology product sales in 2003 23
  billion , forecasted 85 billion in 2010
• US alone 16 billion divided in
• Human therapeutics/drugs 74.0
• Human diagnostics 13.5
• Agriculture 7.0
• Specialties (chemicals, etc.) 3.5
• Non-medical diagnostics 2.0
• Source European Chemical News
• January 20th, 2003

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The role of technologies (6)

• Biotechnologies (cont.)
• It is also a big source of hope
• Immense impact on health
• Enhancement of food production
• Promising impact for the protection of the
  environment clean production of chemicals,
  detection of pollutants, bioremediation

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The role of technologies (7)

• Biotechnologies (cont.)
• The health preoccupation is reflected by the
  large share of the market. Human diagnostics is
  an area of particular growth. Agricultural
  products, GMOs in particular, constitute the
  most publicized trade issue, while in fact they
  represent less than 10 of the total market.

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The role of technologies (8)

• Biotechnologies in the health sector
• Some challenges
• Justified recourse to stem cells
• Exploitation of protein engineering, genomics,
  combinatorial chemistry
• Generalized access to human diagnostics
• Development of animals as production factories
  for human pharmaceuticals

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The role of technologies (9)

• Biotechnologies in the agricultural sector
• Some challenges
• Produce higher yields raise biological
  productivity without associated ecological harm
• Increase resistance to drought, to sea-water
  intrusion
• These technologies can benefit enormously from
  the gene revolution

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The role of technologies (10)

•  The 20th Century began with the rediscovery of
  Mendels laws of inheritance. It ended with the
  moving of specific genes across sexual barriers
  with the help of molecular mapping and
  recombinant DNA technology
• M.S.Swaminathan 

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The role of technologies (11)

• Biotechnologies in the environmental field
• Some challenges
• Develop biological waste management and land
  remediation
• Introduce  smart  water treatment
• Produce safer fertilizers

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The role of technologies (12)

• Biotechnologies
• Some dangers
• Remaining unclear about ethical issues such as
  human cloning or sex determination (impact in
  India or China!) Bioethics
• Failing to exercise global governance on the
  issue of gene technology in agriculture and
  environmental protection Biosafety
• Facilitate bio-terrorism Biosecurity

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The role of technologies (13)

• Energy technologies
• Some challenges
• Widen the clean use of hydrocarbons Fuel Cells
  (local co-generation, transportation, µ
  batteries)
• Consider the clean use of coal coal
  gasification, liquefaction together with methods
  for CO² sequestration
• Develop hydrogen as an energy vector

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The role of technologies (14)

• Energy technologies (cont.)
• Some challenges
• Improve energy storage, all the way from the
  smallest (micro batteries) to the largest size
  (GWh storage rings)
• Review energy distribution methods, notably for
  developing countries
• Review the architecture of electricity networks
  in terms of stability (contribution of  wild 
  sources) and vulnerability.

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The role of technologies (13)

• Energy technologies
• Some dangers
• Antagonizing growth and environmental protection.
  
• In particular, being too emotional about the
  future of nuclear energy and the environmental
  impact of geothermal and of big hydro

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The role of technologies (14)

• Materials  the hidden side of technological
  spearheading 
• Some challenges
• The development of nanomaterials
• The realization of very large structural elements
• The development of intelligent materials self
  healing, failure warning, shape memory
• The increase in service life
• The exploitation of surface functionality

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The role of technologies (15)

• Nanotechnologies. The emerging revolution
• Some challenges
• Applications in new fabrication techniques,
  nano-scale production processes
• Use in health diagnostics
• New applications in ICTs, quantum computing
• Use in µ energy storage
• Development of self organizing micro-robots

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The role of technologies (16)

• Nanotechnologies
• Some dangers
• Ignoring health safety aspects
• Favoring nano-tech weapons
• Leading to evolution beyond control

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In conclusion (1)

• Technologies benefit from the tremendous vitality
  of upstream science that opens new horizons for
  meeting the formidable global challenges of the
  21st Century
• The development of technologies is not without
  danger but self restraint and good political
  governance should limit their possible negative
  impact

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In conclusion (2)

• Any judgment about the role of technology should
  be made in view of global challenges and not
  solely on the basis of local politics
• There is now a unique opportunity to reconcile
  technology and peoples basic aspirations
•  Technology is increasingly seen as a primary
  opportunity for breaking the  Gordian knot 
  between increased economic activity and decreased
  environmental quality 
• Tom Jones, OECD Environment Directorate