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Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses

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Title: Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses


1
Climate Change and the Caribbeanthe Case and the
Responses
  • Ian C King
  • Project Officer
  • Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
    (ACCC) Project
  • kingcpacc_at_sunbeach.net tel. (246) 417-4579

2
Overview
  • Is GCC really happening
  • Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean
  • What have we been doing
  • Challenges for the future particularly for
    National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

3
The Evidence
  • Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, WMO Secretary-General at
    8th UNFCCC COP
  • Recalled that the WSSD held in South Africa
    called for GHG stabilisation to prevent dangerous
    anthropogenic influence and allow ecosystems to
    adapt naturally and so ensure sustainable
    development

4
The Evidence - GHGs
  • GHG Atmospheric concentrations
  • By 1st COP in 1995
  • 359.5 ppmv
  • Increase of 28 since industrialization
  • By end 2001
  • 370 ppmv
  • Annual growth rates fluctuates from 0.5 ppmv/year
    to 3.5 ppmv/year

5
(No Transcript)
6
The Evidence Temperatures SLR
  • 1990s warmest decade on record
  • 1998 the warmest year
  • 2001 the second
  • Global average surface temperature
  • Increase by 0.6 oC since the 1860s
  • Most of warming in the 20th Century especially
  • 1920 1945
  • Post 1976
  • IPCC suggest that most of the warming in last 30
    50 years due to anthropogenic sources
  • Reduction in snow and ice cover especially in
    non-polar mountain glaciers
  • Rise in average sea-level of 18 20 cm

7
Global Temperature Variation 1860 2000IPCC TAR
8
Global Temperature Variation over 1000 years
(Northern hemisphere) - IPCC TAR
9
Variations of the Earths Surface
Temperature1000 to 2100
10
(No Transcript)
11
Annual Precipitation(1901 1995)
Green increasing, Brown decreasing
12
Annual Mean Sea Level in Key West
Fig. 2. Annual mean sea level at Key West from
1846-1992insert shows the bootstrap estimate of
the linear trend and itsvariability. The dashed
line is the least squares linear trendand the
solid lines are the 99 CI for the trend.
13
Change in Annual Precipitationfor the 2050s
14
Temperature Trends(1901 1996)
Red warming, Blue cooling
15
Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations
Figure SPM-10a Atmospheric CO2concentration from
year 1000 to year 2000 from ice core data and
from direct atmospheric measurements over the
past few decades. Projections of
CO2concentrations for the period 2000 to 2100 are
based on the six illustrative SRES scenarios and
IS92a (for comparison with the SAR). Q9 Figure
9-1a
16
The Evidence Weather
  • Unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical
    cyclones, severe floods droughts
  • Recently major storm events floods in Europe,
    Asia, Africa and South America
  • Mozambique, 2000 storm events Elyne Gloria est.
    direct in-direct economic cost of 11.6 of GNP
  • Record breaking droughts in middle Eastern
    countries, Brazil, Horn of Africa central Asia
    to N China
  • China 2001 drought 2nd most severe since 1949
    (lt1978)
  • 13 million people in Southern Africa affected by
    severe drought in 2002

17
IPCC Assessments of Extreme Events with Climate
Change (TAR Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)
Working Group II, 2001)
Very likely (90) Likely (66-90) Moderately likely (33-66) (or lack of agreement between models)
More hot days heat waves Reduced frost days cold waves More intense precipitation events over many areas Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities mean and peak precipitation intensities (over some areas) Intensified floods and droughts associated El Nino events in many different regions Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability Increased intensity of mid-latitude storms (especially in winter)
18
The Evidence ENSO
  • Warm ENSO episodes
  • consistently leads to regional variabilities in
    precipitation temperature over tropics,
    sub-tropics some mid-latitudes
  • More frequent, persistent and intense since the
    mid-1970s compared to previous 100 years
  • Note 1997/1998 El Nino event was very strong
    affecting 110 million people and estimated to
    cost US 96 billion in damage
  • Current El Nino is predicted to be weak
  • IPCC 2001 - The Scientific Basis, SPM "...global
    warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of
    drying and heavy rainfall.....that occur with El
    Nino events in many regions".

19
IPCC Third Assessment Report
  • IPCC TAR in 2001 concluded
  • there is new and stronger evidence that most of
    the warming observed over the past 50 years is
    attributable to human activities.

20
Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean
  • Worlds industrial powers (OECD) account for 20
    worlds population, but are responsible for gt50
    of global emissions the cause of global
    warming and resultant climate change.
  • Developing countries emit lt 25 of total GHG
    emissions.
  • Small Island States emit lt 1 of global
    emissions.
  • SIDS have contributed little to the problem but
    are among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and
    have low adaptive capacity.
  • Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most
    appropriate course

21
Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean
  • Expected climate change impacts for region
    include
  • Sea level rise
  • Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers
  • Coastal flooding and erosion
  • Increased temperatures
  • Heat stress
  • Coral bleaching
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Increased emergence of vector borne diseases

22
Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean
  • Changes in rainfall patterns
  • Droughts or floods
  • Decreased fresh water availability
  • Increased intensity of storm activity
  • Direct damage of infrastructure
  • Loss of lives

23
Possible Climate Change Impacts on Tourism
  • Direct damage to tourism plant and natural
    resources
  • Coral reefs
  • Beaches
  • Loss of attractiveness of the region as a
    destination
  • Impacts on health emergence of dengue, malaria,
    etc.
  • Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged
  • Milder Winters in the North
  • Loss of employment in the industry
  • Increased insurance costs for properties in
    vulnerable areas

24
Significance of Estimated Changes
  • Economists Erik Haites (IPCC leader)and Dennis
    Pantin (UWI St. Augustine) asked by World Bank to
    estimate damages that may arise to CARICOM
    countries based on IPCC TAR projections
  • Temperature, rainfall, SLR, tropical storms and
    hurricanes

25
Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
26
Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
27
Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
28
Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
29
Summary of Economists Estimates
  • Low scenario to 2050
  • 1.5 billion in total damages
  • Ranging from 3.5 to 16 GDP
  • High Scenario
  • US 9 billion per year
  • 24 to 103 of GDP

30
Increased Cases Due to Climate Change and
Associated Costsfor Selected Diseases, Cuba
31
Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean
  • SIDS meeting, 1994
  • BPOA
  • Climate change identified as priority area of
    concern, requiring urgent action
  • CPACC Project formulated after a series of
    national and regional consultations

32
The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global
Climate Change (CPACC) Project
  • The GEF-funded Project (1997-2001) was executed
    by the Organization of American States in
    partnership with the University of the West
    Indies for Environment and Development, (UWICED)
    for the World Bank as the GEF Implementing
    Agency.
  • The Projects overall objective was to support
    Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the
    adverse effects of GCC, particularly sea-level
    rise in coastal areas, through vulnerability
    assessment, adaptation planning and related
    capacity building.

33
CPACC Project Components
  1. Design and Establishment of Sea Level/Climate
    Monitoring Network
  2. Establishment of Databases and Information
    Systems
  3. Inventory of Coastal Resources and Use
  4. Formulation of a Policy Framework for Integrated
    Adaptation Planning and Management
  5. Coral Reef Monitoring for Climate Change
  6. Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
  7. Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine
    Resources
  8. Formulation of Economic/Regulatory Proposals
  9. Green House Gas inventory

34
Accomplishments
  • Nationally, all countries have NFPs and NICUs.
  • In some countries, National committees have been
    established to address climate change.
  • Establishment of a sea level and climate
    monitoring system that contributes to regional
    and global assessment of the issues
  • Improved access and availability of data
  • Increased appreciation of climate change issues
    at the policy-making level and technical support
    to better define the regional position at the
    conventions

35
Accomplishments
  • Meeting country needs for expanded vulnerability
    assessment, economic evaluation techniques,
    developing economic instruments and methodology
    for coral reef monitoring
  • Created a network for regional harmonization
  • Development of National Climate Change Adaptation
    policies and action plans

36
After CPACC
  • Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
    (ACCC) Oct. 2001 Sept. 2004
  • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)
    Jan. 2003-Dec. 2006
  • Caribbean Community Climate change Centre (CCCCC)
    Feb 2002 -

37
Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
(ACCC) Project
  • Cdn. 3.4 million CCCDF grant from the Canadian
    International Development Agency (CIDA) to
    further capacity building efforts initiated under
    CPACC. Includes
  • Development of business plan for Climate Change
    Centre
  • Support for RPIU until CCCCC established and
    operational
  • Development of a M.Sc. Programme in Climate
    Change at U.W.I.
  • Developing sectoral studies on climate change
    impacts and adaptive responses

38
ACCC Projects
  • Project 1 Detailed Project Design and Business
    Plan for Regional Climate Change Centre
  • Project 2 Public Education and Outreach (PEO)
  • Project 3 Integrating Climate Change into a
    Physical Planning Process using a Risk Management
    Approach
  • Project 4 Strengthening Technical Capacity
    through CIMH and National institutes, supporting
    Masters level course at UWI, development of
    region-specific climate change scenarios and
    liaison with other SIDS (in Caribbean and
    Pacific)

39
ACCC Projects
  • Project 5 Integrating Adaptation Planning in
    Environmental Assessments for National and
    Regional Development Projects
  • Project 6 Implementation Strategies for
    Adaptation in the Water Sector
  • Project 7 Formulation of Adaptation Strategies
    to Protect Human Health
  • Project 8 Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture
    and Food
  • Project 9 Fostering Collaboration/Cooperation
    with non-CARICOM Countries

40
ACCC Progress to Date
  • Developing risk management approach to address
    climate change impacts in the public and private
    sectors
  • Following several workshops and training seminars
    to discuss approach
  • Adapted the Canadian RM standard and terminology
    but adjusted to suit the region as well as
    utilising some aspects of the South pacific CHARM
    (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk management)
    methodology

41
ACCC Progress to Date
  • Regional Public Education and Outreach (PEO)
    Strategy drafted after extensive consultation
  • Regional Capacity Development
  • Commencement of the CC Masters
  • Supporting and enhancing climate modeling
    capability at UWI
  • CIMH support
  • Commenced interaction with Pacific
  • Collaboration with the CDB DMFC on the
    incorporation of natural hazards consideration
    into the EIA process

42
Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)
  • PDF B grant to assist in defining MACC project
    components
  • Support national and regional consultations
  • Sectoral and cross sectoral
  • Prepare full project proposal/document MACC in
    final phase
  • MACC finally approved by World Bank in April 03
    and should commence in late 2003 after some delay
    some elements commenced already under the ACCC

43
MACC
  • (a) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in
    national development planning and public and
    private investment decisions.
  • A key activity of the project will be the work
    with key sectors (such as water supply,
    agriculture, forestry, land use planning) to
    incorporate climate change impact and risk
    assessment in their ongoing programs and
    long-term planning.

44
MACC
  • (b) Assisting Institutional and Technical Support
    mechanisms
  • (i) Assisting participating countries with Stage
    II adaptation under the UNFCCC
  • (ii) Support and coordination for the
    preparation of the 2nd National Communications
  • (iii) Mainstreaming through a Permanent
    Institutional Mechanism to Address GCC in the
    Caribbean

45
MACC
  • (c) Expand GCC monitoring and impact assessment
    as a basis for national and regional level
    decision making on adaptation. The following
    activities will be supported
  • strengthening monitoring network
  • wider geographical coverage
  • integration of global and Caribbean networks
  • increased scope of measurements and data
    collection
  • downscaling global models
  • modeling under climate change scenarios

46
MACC
  • (d)Cross-regional Dissemination and Replication
  • Under this component, the project will undertake
    activities to facilitate replication by
    disseminating results and lessons learned to
    other regions. Specifically, the project will
    support efforts aimed at disseminating
    mainstreaming activities in the Caribbean, to
    Pacific Island Nations and other low lying areas.

47
Climate Change Centre
  • First Ministerial Meeting to consider the
    progress in the implementation of the BPOA
    mandated that a mechanism be in place to continue
    climate change work in the region after the
    conclusion of the CPACC Project
  • On the recommendation of the Eighth Meeting of
    the Council for Trade and Economic Development
    (COTED)
  • The initiative to establish a Regional Climate
    Change Centre was endorsed by the CARICOM Heads
    of Government at their Twenty-First Meeting of
    the Conference of Heads of Government of the
    Caribbean Community, 2-5 July, 2000
  • Established as a legal entity at the CARICOM
    Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting,
    February, 2002.
  • Set to commence following the start of the MACC
    project but building on that activity and the
    CPACC Project

48
The Objectives of the Centre
  • Promoting protection of the earths climate
    system
  • Enhancing regional institutional capabilities for
    the co-ordination of national responses to the
    adverse effects of climate change
  • Providing comprehensive policy and technical
    support in the area of climate change and related
    issues and spearheading regional initiatives in
    those areas
  • Performing the role of executing agency for
    regional environmental projects relating to
    climate change
  • Promoting education and public awareness on
    climate change issues
  • Facilitating regional consensus for negotiations
    related to the UNFCCC
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