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World Climate Research Programme: Plans and Priorities THORPEX ICSC September 2011 Geneva, Switzerland

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Title: World Climate Research Programme: Plans and Priorities THORPEX ICSC September 2011 Geneva, Switzerland


1
World Climate Research Programme Plans and
PrioritiesTHORPEX ICSCSeptember 2011 Geneva,
Switzerland
Ghassem R Asrar
2
  • Strategy and Implementation Plan
  • Key Activities in 2010/2011
  • Future Functions and Structure
  • Expectations/Outcomes from JSC-32
  • Joint Activities with WWRP/THORPEX

3
Mission Objectives
  • World Climate Research Programme coordinates
    international climate research, modeling and
    analysis to improve
  • climate predictions and
  • our understanding of human influence on climate
  • for use in an increasing range of practical
    applications of direct relevance, benefit and
    value to society
  • (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

4
WCRP Implementation Plan
  • The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
  • Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
  • Cryosphere and Climate
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
  • Water, Energy and Climate
  • Meeting the Information Needs of Society
  • Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
  • Decadal Variability, Predictability and
    Prediction
  • Sea-Level Variability and Change
  • Climate Extremes
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
  • Centennial Climate Change Projections
  • Seasonal Climate Prediction
  • Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
  • Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
  • A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models
  • Next Generation of Climate Experts Developing
    Capacity Regionally and Globally

5
Key Activities in 2010/11
  • WCRP Open Science Conference
  • Climate modelling coordination (CMIP5, CHFP)
  • Regional modelling analysis, CORDEX
  • Global data sets reprocessing of GEWEX
    observations
  • Polar Predictability Initiative
  • Drought Extremes Workshops
  • Reanalysis plans for major conference, May 2012
  • WCRP Planning for future, OSC

6

Modeling Coordination Meeting
  • The purpose of this meeting was to follow up on
    the recommendations of the World Modelling
    Summit, and actions resulting from the JSC
    meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on the subject of
    modelling.
  • The JSC discussed at length the formation of a
    WCRP Modelling Council in the context of WCRP
    visioning and future direction to carry out the
    following functions
  • Promoting greater use of observations and results
    of process studies in/with models
  • Promoting collaboration amongst various climate
    science communities (includes numerical weather
    prediction (NWP), seasonal to interannual
    prediction, and climate projection as well as
    those dealing with biogeochemistry, air quality,
    terrestrial ecology, etc.)
  • Promoting application of models to problems of
    societal relevance, quantifying uncertainties and
    making sure they are well communicated and
    understood
  • Promoting the model development and improvements.

7
Research Contributions to Climate Services
  • Task Team Chair Greg Flato
  • Coming out of last year's JSC meeting, one of the
    action items was to develop the WCRP position on
    research in support of climate services.
  • Charge to form a sub-set of the JSC and some of
    the Project co-chairs to follow up on
    discussions/deliberations at the JSC, our latest
    input to the GFCS High Level Task Team, and to
    develop further the role of WCRP Research in
    Climate Services.
  • Topics for consideration
  • What are the envisioned contributions of WCRP to
    the Framework for Climate Services?What are the
    potential strategies/approaches for development
    and sharing of the climate knowledge and
    resulting from WCRP and its affiliate Projects
    with potential partners?Who are the potential
    partners external to WCRP?What role WCRP can
    and should play in facilitating and promoting
    best practices in development and dissemination
    of reliable climate information? (Implicit in
    this request is consideration of what we should
    not be doing?.)
  • How should WCRP best organize itself in this
    regard?

8
WCRP Data Council
  • Transition Plan from WOAP to a Data Council
  • Sarah Gille, Chair from JSCMike Manton, WOAP
    Chair Mike Bosilovich, Re-analysisAdrian
    Simmons, GCOS Toshio Koike WCRP Info SystemKarl
    Taylor, CLIVAR Chris Kummerow, GEWEXColin Jones
    or CORDEX rep. Veronika Eyring, Modeling Council
    MeetingJeff Key, CliC Michaela Haegglin,
    SPARCNorm McFarlane, Executive Sec.
  • Charge Identify WCRP functions in coordinating
    research on observations and new observations
    required for climate research, especially for
    process understanding and model development and
    evaluation.
  • Identify WCRP functions in coordinating the
    development, stewardship and dissemination of
    climate information resulting from its research,
    modeling and analysis activities.
  • Develop a framework for coordination an
    integration of pan-WCRP observations, analysis
    and information management activities identified
    above
  • Recommend how the proposed framework should be
    organized and supported within WCRP in a manner
    that is complimentary and value added to the
    activities of Projects and sister programmes
    (e.g. GCOS, CEOS, GEOSS, WIS, etc.).

9
WCRP JSC 32, Met Office, Exeter, UK 4-8 4-8 April
2011
  • Agenda Expectations and Outcomes
  • Discuss the transition/evolution of the WCRP and
    its core projects
  • Discuss the WCRP Open Science Conference agenda
    and its outcome for developing the future
    functions and structure of the Programme and
    Projects

10
  • JSC 32 outcomes
  • Modelling Council Approved
  • Earth System prediction with IGBP,WWRP,
  • Data Council Approved TOR was developed
  • WG on Regional climate science info. formed
  • A team was established to define scope and
    charter
  • Cross-cut on Communication w/IOC
  • Sustained Ocean Obs. Task Team Identify WCRP
    role after release of their report

11
Coordination Partnerships
  • Scientific and Technical Conferences
  • Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
  • Polar Research, Modeling and Prediction
  • Season and Sub-seasonal Weather/Climate
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
  • Education and Capacity Development
  • Geo-engineering

12
Year Of Tropical Convection
Coordination Partnerships
  • CINDY DYNAMO field phase (Oct 2011-jan 2012)
  • YOTC Giovanni data dissemination framework -
    providing user-friendly access to the YOTC
    satellite archive.
  • MJO Task Force still active meets at OSC

13
Climate Historical Forecast Project
  • Provide baseline assessment of seasonal
    prediction
  • capabilities using the best available models
    and data for
  • initialization
  • Provide experimental framework for focused
    research
  • on how various components of the climate system
    interact
  • and affect one another
  • Provide a test-bed for evaluating IPCC class
    models in
  • seasonal prediction
  • Provide framework for assessing current and
    planned
  • observing systems
  • Integrate process studies/field campaigns into
    model
  • improvements

14
Experiment Protocol
  • Best Possible Observationally Based
    Initialization of Components of Climate System
  • Role for each of core WCRP projects
  • Key No future information after initialization
  • Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member), Fully
    Interactive Predictions of the Climate System
  • Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for
    Each Year 1979-
  • Some Groups Extend to Decadal Time Scales (WCRP
    crosscut)
  • Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, )
  • International Multi-Institution Participation
  • Diagnostic sub-projects
  • will involve extensive interactions among WCRP
    projects/panels

15
Participating Groups
  • EU ENSEMBLES (Linked Server)
  • UKMET (CIMA)
  • APCC (Linked Server)
  • NOAA-NCEP
  • NOAA-GFDL
  • NASA-GMAO (Jan 2012)
  • COLA-UMiami-NCAR (September 2011)
  • BMRC
  • JMA (CIMA)
  • CCCma (CIMA)
  • CPTEC
  • IRI

Completed Hindcasts Done, Data Transfer
Pending Hindcasts Nearly Completed Black Status
Pending
16
http//chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/
CIMA CHFP Data Server
17
Coordination Partnerships
  • Coordinated set of experiments involving 12
    models
  • Twin experiments using realistic/unrealistic
    land initialization
  • Difference indicates skill due to
    land-atmosphere coupling
  • Complements CHFP protocol (no future information
    included)
  • Data available from NASA GSFC

18
Coordination Partnerships
  • Parallel hindcasts from stratosphere resolving
    and
  • non-resolving models
  • Action from WGSIP-12 Endorse as subproject of
    CHFP
  • SPARC to recommend diagnostics

19
TIGGE Representation (P. Silva Dias) at
WGSIP-13 Several Area of Potential Collaboration
Identified
  • Ocean-atmosphere coupling impact sub-seasonal
    forecast skill
  • Role of resolution on forecast skill
  • Scale interactions
  • Ensemble techniques

20
Coordination Partnerships
WCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on Seasonal
to Multi-Decadal Timescales
  • Bergen, Norway, 25-29 October 2010, 80
    participants
  • Focus on scientific challenges, rather than
    programmatic
  • Despite limited investment and emphasis in the
    past, early results concerning the extent of
    polar predictability show promise.
  • We understand many of the physical sources of
    predictability in the polar climate system, but
    there is lack of a good understanding of many of
    the feedback mechanisms between the different
    components of the climate system, and the
    physical causality of the large-scale modes of
    variability in the polar regions.

21
Coordination Partnerships
Explore seasonal predictability associated with
snow and sea ice
22
Coordination Partnerships
Resulting WCRP Polar Predictability Initiative
  • Examples of possible research foci
  • Seasonal predictability and seasonality of
    long-term changes
  • Forced and unforced components of decadal
    predictability
  • Initial state estimates
  • Extent of potential predictability
  • The first action would be to hold a focused
    meeting, to develop a detailed implementation
    plan (beginning of 2012).
  • Cooperation with partners, e.g. with Thorpex (and
    Polar Thorpex) essential, Chair invited, joint
    work foreseen.
  • This could be a contribution to the WMO Global
    Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS), and
    an element of the potential International Polar
    Decade initiative.

23
See You in Denver! WCRP Open Science
Conference 24-28 October 2011 Denver, Colorado,
USA http//conference2011.wcrp-climate.org
Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating Climate
Research in Service to Society
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