?????????????????????????????: ???????????? subprime

1
????????????????????????????? ????????????
subprime.

• 13 ????????? 2550
• ?????????????????????

Disclaimer ??????????????????????????
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2

• ???????????????????????????????????
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• ????????? ????????????????????????????
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• ????????? ??????????????????????????????????
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3
?????????????????????????? subprime

• ??????????????????????????????
• ????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
  ???????
• ???????????????????? ?????????????
• U.S. growth 3.9 in Q3 (!)
• 166,000 new jobs in October
• ??????????????? ??????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????

4
?????????????????????????? subprime

• ??? outlook ??????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????
• Credit crunch as lending standard tightened
• ?????????????????????? ????????????????
• Oil 100 a barrel!

5
?????????????????????

• Hedge fund ?????????????
• CEO ????????????????????????????????
• Liquidity tightened/counterparty risk
• Interbank market Libor
• Commercial paper market
• High yield/CDS
• Credit crunch

6
?????????????????????

• More surprises
• write down ?????????? 40 billion
• could be as much as 200-300 billion or more..
• Rising delinquencies and foreclosures
• 30-40 of subprime borrowers expected to default
• Subprime 1.2 trillion out of 10 trillion
  outstanding mortgages
• ????????????????? ????????????????
• ???????????????????????/??? mark to market
• ARM rates reset

7
?????????? ???? Mortgage

• Banks as a sole provider
• GSE Securitization
• Fannie Mae
• Freddie Mac/Ginnie Mae
• Private labeled securitization
• Sub-prime, alt-A
• ABCP

8
?????????????????

• New financial landscape
• Regulated core FIs ?????????
• ??????
• Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
• Financial market ??? unregulated FIs
  ???????????????? financial intermediary
• Hedge funds
• Mutual funds/pension funds
• Sovereign wealth funds

9
?????-???????

• Risk more dispersed, diversified
• Financial innovation
• Distribution of risks/financial stability
• Lax lending standard
• Procyclicality

10
????????????????? (2)

• Disclosure and borrower education
• Role of rating agencies/Transparency
• Did investors understand their exposures?
• Maturity mismatches
• Bail-out Moral Hazard?
• Agency problem in O2D model

11
??????????????????

• ????? ?????????????????????? ???????????
  ??????????????????
• ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  ????
• Domestic demand ??????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????

12

• ??????

13
House prices are sliding