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[On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on Emerging Issues]

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[On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on Emerging Issues] Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente Carabias, Totti ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: [On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on Emerging Issues]


1
On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning
Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on
Emerging Issues
  • Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente
    Carabias, Totti Könnölä, Miriam Leis, Ozcan
    Saritas, Petra Schaper-Rinkel, Victor van Rij
  • 12-05-2011

2
Objectives of the SESTI project
2
  • Researching the added value of early warning
    signal scanning to identify emerging issues
  • Assessing the pros and cons of several scanning
    methods
  • Identifying ways to connect scanning to the
    policy community

3
3
4
Weak signals and other concepts
Trend
Trend
ws weak signal wc wildcard
Trend
ws
ws
wc
ws
wc
Emergingissues
hype
wc
ws
hype
Past
Present
Future
5
From weak signals toemerging issues
Internet offer
100 internet course
Emerging issue
Weak signals
.
Shift to the privitization of education
.

Emerging issue
Weak signals
.
Disruption of the pension system
Research paper
30 extension of life mice
6
Why should we look for emerging issues?
6
  • Much info and many issues are biased by their
    bringers, even scientific advice is biased by
    disciplinary thinking
  • Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents,
    they scan the world for this (although there are
    some good exceptions)
  • Most issues coming to the policy makers have a
    short term character
  • While good governing needs the capacity to
    foresee and to anticipate
  • Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good
    intuition for what the future may bring, but the
    knowledge they can use for this , is limited to
    their sources

7
Content orientation of SESTI
  1. Focus on functional aspects of the innovation
    system
  2. Focus on content

Healthcare
Energy
To be chosen
X
X
X
Organizational changes
Science and technology developments
X
X
X
X
X
X
Public perception
8
Overall process of scanning
Weak signalsscanning
Weak signals(long list)
Signaltransformation
Issueinterpretation
Key emergingissues
Emergingissues
Weak signalsassessment
Key signals (short list)
9
Approach
3
4
5
Scanning foremergingissues
In depth analysis
Processinginformation
1
Projectstart up
2
WikiHub
6
7
Workshops
Knowledgedissemination
10
SESTI project
10
  • Are there ways to improve the information basis
    to identify the most important future issues that
    need policy attention today?
  • Are there early warning (weak) signals that can
    be used to identify them?
  • If so where and how to find them and how to use
    them to feed them into the policymakers agenda?

11
Definition and criteria emerging issue
11
  • Emerging issues are storylines (Future
    Narratives) with
  • High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the
    domain)
  • Plausible storyline (including factual basis
    reliable sources )
  • Novelty (is the issue described really new for
    the policy makers)
  • Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the
    issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical
    legal aspects)
  • Interests at stake (commonalities and or
    conflicts)
  • Changeability (Can the story or its impact be
    altered by human action)
  • Policy relevance (does the issue relate to
    present day decision making and action and on
    different levels)

12
Sources and tools for scanning
12
  • Non participative / (digital) written sources
  • Systematic manual scanning (internet search
    engines)
  • Literature study
  • Text mining
  • Participative / stakeholders experts
  • Survey
  • Wiki
  • Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Workshops etc

13
Systematic Internet scanning
13
  • Internet Search on internet using search engines
    provided by google / bing
  • Google selects all pages (texts vids) with the
    search string
  • sorts the pages that are most connected/central
  • Needed
  • Qualified scanners (fast interpretation)
  • Frame of reference (coordinates/for which domain
    does the scan take place/criteria)
  • Intelligent questions
  • Workshops

14
SESTI-manual scanning
14
15
The principles of Issue Centered Scanning
Emerging issue B
B
Past
Present
Future
16
Primary signal secondary signals
16
17
Emerging issue A
WC
Emerging issue B
ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING
Hype issue C
Past
Present
Future
18
Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter
18
  • An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders
    Q what they see as new emerging issues /early
    warning signals?
  • Needed
  • own website (SESTI-wiki blog ) or account on
    existing platform (Linked In , Face book,
    Twitter)
  • Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants
  • Open /structured set up
  • Analysts to interpret data (text mining)

19
SESTI Wiki for emerging issues
19
20
SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/Twitter
20
21
Emerging issue A
Emerging issue C
WC
Emerging issue F
Hype issue D
EXPLORATORY SCANNING
Past
Present
Future
22
Exploratory Scanning
22
  • Characteristics
  • Broader scanning area scope and bottom-up
  • Information about singular events
  • Utilisation of foresight communities
  • People who are scanning for new information on a
    regular basis ? put up in forums, blogs,
    discussion lists and finally twitter
  • Enabling of interdisciplinary discussions about
    credibility and potential future implications
  • First assessment to filter out unreliable
    information
  • Complementing with focused discussions or surveys

23
Conclusions of Exploratory Scanning
23
  • Emerging issue identification and analysis is a
    complex social process ? Interests, agendas and
    selective perception need to be kept in mind
  • Human communication with experts/scanners and
    clients/policy-makers is essential
  • Quality of original source and transparency of
    processes impact the interpretation and
    conclusions
  • Social networking can provide added value for
    identification and assessment of signals and
    emerging issues (but resource constraints exist!)

24
Conclusions of Exploratory Scanning
24
  • Different approaches can be strategically
    combined
  • broaden the spectrum of possible signals(e.g.
    through crowd sourcing like twitter and blogs for
    exploratory scanning)
  • improving the credibility assessment (e.g. by
    establishing interdisciplinary discussion groups
    for validation)
  • complementing the validation process (e.g. by
    performing issue-centred scans, surveys,
    workshops etc.) utilising automated tools for
    clustering and network analysis of issues
  • maintaining an interaction between the clients of
    the analysis (e.g. decision/policy maters) and
    those who look for the information.

25
Experience scanning methods
25
Tool Reach /Source Observation time Coherence degree of the signal Quality check Novelty Dialogue
Manual scanning Very large www Anytime Large and small Available high NA
Literature study Large wwl Anytime Large Available medium NA
Survey Specific limited One time Small Low, except experts medium NA
Text mining Large Runs with preparation Small ?? Complex ? NA
Wiki Specific limited Dependent on participants Large in theory Small in practice Available Medium to high Some
Blog Linked In etc Specific limited Dependent on participants Medium to large Dialogue Medium to high Open
Twitter Specific limited All the time continuous Small NA high Twitter
26
Scanning methods tested within SESTI
26
27
Evaluation criteria
27
  • Policy makers noted importance of scanning to
    identify
  • the connections, clustering of weak signals and
    the degree of relevance to a specific area
  • the duration of the weakness of the signal
    associated also with the time the signal is
    observed, the origin and the novelty of the weak
    signals
  • any rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural
    issues
  • the existence of a strategy already concerned
    with the specific weak signal(s) / emerging
    issues by a government or industry, lobby or
    international organisation
  • positive and negative impacts and associated
    policy implications
  • policy recommendations.

28
Conclusions of Evaluation
28
  • Need different approaches as all have advantages
    and disadvantages
  • Overall, participatory methods are of crucial
    importance for the last stages of the scanning
    process enabling verification and filtering of
    results as well as policy implication and
    recommendations.
  • Semi-automated methods are appreciated especially
    those drawing on large expert communities in
    terms of enabling systematic scanning and
    retrieval of inside information in the first
    scanning phases as well as in verifying the
    results.
  • The value of the more conventional methods like
    expert surveys, literature review and conference
    visits is more relevant for targeted tasks
    requiring expert inputs.

29
SESTI-Partners www.sesti.info
29
  • TNO Main coordinator
  • MinOCW Scanning (v.vanrij_at_minocw.nl)
  • AIT Processing of information
  • UniMan In depth analysis
  • IPTS Policy workshops
  • MCST Knowledge dissemination

30
Set up of the SESTI project
Focus of this presentation
Further information www.sesti.info
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