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Title: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region


1
Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation
in the Northeast Asia Region
  • Viet Nam- Country Report

By Dr. Pham Khanh Toan Nguyen Minh Bao
Institute of Energy
23-24 September-Beijing-China
2
Contents
  • Introduction
  • Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies
  • Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths
  • Conclusions and Recommendations

3
1. Introduction
  • Viet Nam stretches along the east coast of
    Indochina over a length of 1,600 km between the
    northern latitudes of 80 and 230.
  • Total land area 330,000 square kilometers.
  • Shares common borders with the Peoples Republic
    of China (PRC) in the north, and with Laos and
    Cambodia in the west.

4
Introduction
  • Population
  • 2009 85.8 million (result from the general
    population census in 01 April 2009).
  • From 1999 to 2009 Population were increased by
    9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18
    per year, reducing nearly 0.5 compared with
    previous 10 year period (1989-1999).
  • GDP
  • . Annual average GDP Growth Rate 7.6 in
    1990-2005, and 7.3 in 2005-2009.

5
2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies
6
Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy
Sector
  • Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE
    and increased to 40,345 KTOE in 2007 with
    average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year.

Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including
Biomass Energy)
7
Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy
Sector
  • In 2007, residential sector consumes 39 of
    total final energy, followed by industry (36),
  • transportation (20),
  • commerce (4) and agriculture (1).
  • The share of energy consumption by sector in 2007.

8
market share of installed capacity - 2010
By owners
By fuel types
9
installed capacity vs peak demand
2006--2010
Power Generation 13,5/annual
Growth of Peak Demand 11,6/ann.
Growth of Installed Cap. 12/ann.
10
Electricity production in 2001-2009
Average growth rate of electricity is 12.8/year
in 2006-2009 (including electricity from China ).
10
11
Volume of transmission network as of 2009
500 kV


3438 km
16/7500 MVA
220 kV
8497 km
119/19094 MVA
110 kV
12145 km
746/25862 MVA
  • Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009
  • 100 districts have electricity from national
    grid or local system
  • 97.6 communes (8880/9101 communes) and
  • 95,1 rural households have electricity from
    grid (13.95/14.67 mill. hh)

11
12
National Energy Saving Target
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam
    signed Decision No. 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the
    EEC program for the period 2006-2015.
  • The target of the program is to save 3 to 5
    percent of total national energy consumption over
    the period 2006-2010 and 5 to 8 percent in period
    2011-2015.

13
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • National Energy Efficient Use Policies
  • In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and
    Efficient Use was passed by the National
    Assembly.
  • The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to
    institutionalize policies on national energy
    resources, energy security, environment
    protection and meeting demand of socio-economic
    development.
  • The Law specifies the responsibilities of
    sectors with high energy saving potential such as
    industry, transport, service and residential.
  • The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming
    industries and buildings have to report on energy
    consumption and plans to improve efficiency, and
    to designate internal energy managers
    responsible for energy-efficiency work.

14
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Three sectors account for about 95 of total
    final energy consumption, with high potential for
    energy efficiency
  • Industry Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in
    1990 to 14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate
    of 6.8 per year, accounting for 27.8 of total
    energy consumption in 1990 and increased to 35.6
    in 2007.
  • Transportation consumption grew from 1,413
    KTOE in 1990 to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth
    rate of 11.3 per year.
  • Residential Household use of modern energy
    (such as LPG and electricity) has average growth
    rate of 16.3 per year during 19902007.

15
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in
    Target Sectors
  • a, Industrial Sector
  • - Renewal and renovation of existing equipment
    and facilities.
  • - Selecting the suitable measures for energy use
    management.
  • Planning access to energy-efficient equipments,
    modern production lines.
  • Select high efficient technologies for new
    power plants.
  • b, Transport Sector
  • - Means of transportation must comply with the
    technical standards
  • - Improvement and promotion of using public
    transport system.
  • Development and using clean and other
    substitution fuels.
  • c, Residential and Commercial Sector
  • - Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting
    systems and residential sectors.
  • - Introduction of energy-saving appliances,
    renewable energy in households and commercial
    buildings, along with management measurements.

16
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • National Policies in Nuclear Energy
  • In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved
    Sstrategy to apply nuclear energy for peaceful
    purposes by 2020.
  • In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared
    an Investment Report on construction of nuclear
    power plants in Ninh Thuan province.
  • The Investment Report of the first nuclear power
    plant project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh
    Thuan province, 4000 MW, was approved by the
    National Assembly in November 2009. At each
    site, two nuclear units with capacity of 1000 MW
    each, operation anticipated in 2020.

17
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • National Policies in Nuclear Energy
  • In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved
    Orientation planning for nuclear energy
    development up to the year 2030.
  • Three phases of NPP development
  • - The first phase (by 2015) Approval of
    investment project, selecting sites and
    contractors, and training the human resource
    Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project
    construction and management.
  • The next five year stage (by 2020), the first
    unit of the Ninh Thu?n Nuclear Power Plant 1
    (1000MW) will be finished and put into operation
    by 2020. The second plant will also be built
    during this period.

18
Viet Nams Energy Policy
  • National Policies in Nuclear Energy
  • The phase 3 2020-2030, next nuclear power
    plants will be built
  • According to the development orientation, about
    eight sites for power plants located in five
    provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha
    Tinh and Quang Ngai.
  • Up to 2030 Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 MW
    by 2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, accounting for
    about 10 percent of the total capacity of power
    system.

19
2. Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP
Paths
20
Introduction
  • In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for
    energy demand projection, and development of
    alternative energy scenarios addressing climate
    change problems.
  • This section will provide the progress and
    interim results of LEAP Paths including
  • Methodology and Data
  • Energy Demand Structure
  • Key Assumptions
  • Interim results of LEAP Paths.

21
Methodology and Data
  • Energy demand was constructed and projected for
    the sectors such as industry, transport,
    agriculture, residential and commercial sectors .
  • In each sector, energy consumption was broken
    down in to sub-sectors and projected based on
    driving activities and energy intensities.
  • Driving activities were chosen based on the
    development plans or strategies of subsectors.
  • Energy intensities were selected based on the
    available data from the researches and recent
    surveys.
  • Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based
    on the programs of the country.

22
Energy Demand Structure
23
Energy Demand Structure
Iron and Steel
Industry
Cement
24
Energy Demand Structure
25
Energy Demand Structure
26
Energy Demand Structure
27
Key Assumptions
  • GDP Viet Nams GDP is projected to grow at an
    average annual rate of 6.9, 7.2 and 7.0 in the
    periods of 2005-2010, 2011-2020 and 2021-2030
    respectively in the base case scenario.

Period 2006-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Annual Growth Rate 6.9 7.2 7.0
  • Population Growth Assumption

Year Growth Rate
2000-2010 1.1
2010-2020 1.0
2020-2030 0.7
  • Urbanization rate 44.5 in 2030

28
Key Assumptions
Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated
Unit MW
2020 2025 2030
Minimum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 4,000 6,000
BAU Nuclear Scenario 1,000 6,000 11,000
Maximum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 8,000 15,000
29
Interim Results
Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Biomass 7,450 6,375 6,093 5,987 6,078 6,602 - 0.48
Coal 6,072 10,610 13,980 18,350 22,827 28,704 6.41
Diesel 5,688 8,089 11,652 16,860 23,854 34,027 7.42
Electricity 3,933 6,841 10,602 16,087 23,050 33,130 8.90
Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 12,199 17,381 7.72
Jet Kerosene 432 658 1,014 1,562 2,346 3,524 8.76
Kerosene 310 370 462 597 808 1,104 5.21
LPG 896 1,410 2,072 2,945 4,001 5,371 7.43
Natural Gas 100 554 1,023 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.77
FO 1,605 2,145 2,828 3,739 4,752 6,053 5.45
Wood 5,239 4,852 4,399 3,907 3,302 2,668 -2.66
Total 34,431 45,856 59,939 80,170 105,492 141,698 5.82
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32
Interim Results
Final Energy Demand by Sectors (KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Residential 14,532 15,034 15,618 16,411 17,188 18,259 0.92
Industry 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.50
Transport 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 47,759 7.88
Agriculture 1,382 1,855 2,523 3,401 4,339 5,543 5.71
Commercial 1,629 2,281 3,382 5,017 7,371 10,847 7.88
Total 34,431 45,856 59,939 80,170 105,492 141,698 5.82
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Interim Results
Residential Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors
(KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Urban 2,334 3,056 3,965 5,123 6,474 8,153 5.13
Rural 12,198 11,977 11,653 11,288 10,713 10,106 -0.75
Total 14,532 15,034 15,618 16,411 17,188 18,259 0.92
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Interim Results
Industry Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors
(KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Iron and Steel 363 1,715 3,059 4,430 5,522 6,642 12.3
Cement 3,160 5,238 5,707 6,246 6,494 6,743 3.1
Brick Making 2,393 2,895 4,243 6,220 9,024 13,092 7.0
Pulp and Paper 353 579 949 1,565 1,869 2,174 7.5
Others 3,450 5,822 9,084 14,160 20,794 30,641 9.1
Total 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.5
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Interim Results
Industry Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Biomass 1,427 1,034 1,518 2,227 3,225 4,671 4.9
Coal 4,777 8,900 11,823 15,701 19,658 24,928 6.8
Diesel 265 380 523 720 944 1,237 6.4
Electricity 1,870 3,527 5,675 9,047 13,364 19,921 9.9
Kerosene 12 15 18 22 27 31 3.9
LPG 109 309 495 770 1,110 1,583 11.3
Natural Gas 100 554 1,023 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.8
FO 1,159 1,528 1,966 2,535 3,101 3,787 4.9
Total 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.5
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Interim Results
Transport Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors
(KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Passenger 3332 5145 8028 12525 19051 28973 9.0
Freight 3531 4870 6759 9382 12734 17284 6.6
Other 307 423 587 815 1106 1501 6.6
Total 7169 10438 15375 22721 32891 47759 7.9
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Interim Results
Transport Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR. (05-30)
Diesel 3,723 5,406 7,959 11,805 17,239 25,352 8.0
Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 12,199 17,381 7.7
Jet Kerosene 432 658 1,014 1,562 2,346 3,524 8.8
Residual Fuel Oil 307 423 587 815 1,106 1,501 6.6
Total 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 47,759 7.9
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Interim Results
Electricity Generation Output by Fuels -BAU
(KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal 769 1,762 3,620 6,323 9,241 14,927
Hydro 1,845 2,732 3,341 4,347 5,776 8,210
Natural Gas 1,770 1,752 1,934 1,953 2,568 2,930
Nuclear - - - 527 3,080 5,473
Diesel 73 18 4 2 - -
FO 140 284 26 20 19 16
Total 4,597 6,548 8,925 13,172 20,685 31,556
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Interim Results
Electricity Generation Global Warming Potential
(Mil. Tone CO2e)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BAU 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 105.6 164.2
Maximum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 95.4 144.3
Minimum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 115.9 189.0
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49
4. Conclusion and Recommendation
50
Conclusions
  • As shown above, an interim result was achieved
    based on the updated data on energy, economics
    and main driving activities.
  • Energy demand of residential, industry, and
    transport sectors was broken down in to
    sub-sectors and end-uses.
  • Energy demand was projected based energy
    consumption indexes and driving activities
    referred from the development strategies of
    sectors and sub-sectors.
  • GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on
    the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear
    power development.

51
Recommendation
  • As the first steps, we initially restructured the
    LEAP Dataset for residential, industry and
    transport that each sector was divided in
    sub-sectors and end-uses. Moreover, the GHG
    Mitigation Scenarios were also developed only on
    supply side based on BAU, Minimum and Maximum
    nuclear power development paths. Therefore, these
    is still room for next steps of AES Project,
    including
  • Development of alternative energy scenarios on
    the demand side -including energy efficiency,
    fuels substitution, and demand-side renewable
    energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG
    emissions.
  • Evaluation of the costs for CO2 emissions
    abatement through different energy efficient
    policies and measures.

52
Thank you very much
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