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The American Environment Security Scenarios of 2035: Content Analysis of Quadrennial Defenses Review of 2014

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Title: The American Environment Security Scenarios of 2035: Content Analysis of Quadrennial Defenses Review of 2014


1


ICES 3 International Conference on
Educational Sciences 2014
TIRANA ALBANIA, April 24-25,
2014
The American Environment Security Scenarios of
2035 Content Analysis of Quadrennial Defenses
Review of 2014 KHEMIS Mohamed Assistant
professor in future studies Université Kasdi
Merbah Ouargla, Algerie khemiss-moh_at_hotmail.com k
hemise.mo_at_univ-ouargla.dz    

Obviously, The QDR is a strategy-driven
assessment that balances the preparations of the
present with anticipated challenges and
opportunities of the future. Therefore, the
scenario planning seems the main analytical
framework of Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and it
provides us also a comprehensive tool to read
Quadrennial Defense Reviews as well. Because,
today scenario planning is prime technique of
future studies that have been used currently by
governments, planners, corporate managers and
military analysts as powerful tool to help
decision making process to face uncertainty and
establish new thinking about possible futures to
avoid catastrophic outcomes. According to Bernard
Berelson, content analysis a versatile tool for
social science and media researchers thus many
scholars adopted it for historical and political
researches as well (Holsti, 1969). However, the
content analysis method has achieved a greater
popularity among scholars after the its
developments as full-fledged scientific method
took place during the World War Two, when the
American government sponsored a project under the
directorship of Harold Laswell to analyze the
enemys propaganda contents (Steve, Stemler,
2001).
Frequencies percentage at each category of QDRs
2014, 2010, and 2006
PROJECT OBJECTIVE This study tries to analyze
the content of Quadrennial Defense Review 2014 by
using central themes of scenario planning
literature such Driving forces, uncertainties,
Weak signals and Strategies. The analysis of the
manifest and latent content of QDR 2014 is the
first step to evaluate and assess the challenges
and opportunities of security environment of the
United States and international system as well.
  • ABSTRACT
  • The Quadrennial Defense Review represents an
    important official document to drawn the multiple
    scenarios of Americas future security
    environment, and highlights the main shifts that
    rebalance the urgent demands of today and the
    most likely threats of the future. This study
    aims to analyze the Quadrennial Defense Review of
    2014 by using the content analysis as a central
    methodological tool, and noting that
    scenario-based planning literature is the
    theoretical background of this study.
  • keywords Quadrennial Defense Review 2014,
    Content analysis, Security environment, Scenario
    building, Driving forces, Uncertainties, Weak
    signals, Strategy
  • Content Analysis of QDR 2014
  • Sampling Units Selection of QDR 2014
  • It could be argued that, what makes content
    analysis technique useful and unique is its
    reliance on coding and categorizing of the data,
    according to many scholars the unit of analysis
    refers to the basic unit of text to be classified
    during content analysis. Therefore, this study
    has selected paragraphs of Quadrennial Defense
    Review 2014 as sampling units which are
    compatible with multiple ideas of the whole text.
  • The manifest content categories of QDR 2014
  • The manifest content of Quadrennial Defense
    Review 2014 has exposed as the table illustrated
    below
  • Categories Definitions
  • In fact, categorizing and coding scheme is
    process that can be derived from three sources
    the data, previous related studies, and theories.
    Thus this study relies on scenario planning
    literature as significant basis that enable us to
    develop four categories inductively from the
    whole text of QDR 2014, and we assume that the
    QDR written to make future strategies, and
    response to the possible threats. The four
    categories are addressing the wide range of QDR
    2014 connotations. The QDR 2014 categories are
    outlined as following
  • - Driving forces coded as (Df)
  • - Uncertainties coded as (Un)
  • - Strategy coded as (St)
  • Weak signals coded as (We)
  • See tables and the appendixes below


INTRODUCTION On March 3, 2014, Secretary of
Defense Chuck Hagel submitted the latest
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). This report has
identifies the major security challenges likely
to emerge in the foreseeable future of United
States of America. The QDR is a legislative
mandated review of Department of Defense to
conduct a comprehensive examination of the
national defense strategy, force structure, force
policies of United States and establishing a
defense program for the next 20 years.
Though, the QDR is also provides new trends and
directions for the structure of Department of
defense in order to develop common assessment of
the security environment. Thus, the QDR
represents a scenario based document that
explores the multiple possible futures of U. S
near and long term security challenges. The
reviews of QDR are supposed to look out over
twenty year horizon. Since 1997 review, these
reviews have become integral components of
defenses Department overall strategic planning.
Obviously, The QDR is a strategy-driven
assessment that balances the preparations of the
present with anticipated challenges and
opportunities of the future. Therefore, the
scenario planning seems the main analytical
framework of Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and it
provides us also a comprehensive tool to read
Quadrennial Defense Reviews as well. Because,
today scenario planning is prime technique of
future studies that have been used currently by
governments, planners, corporate managers and
military analysts as powerful tool to help
decision making process to face uncertainty and
establish new thinking about possible futures to
avoid catastrophic outcomes
Category Definitions 1- Driving Forces (Df)
Driving forces are the external factors that are
causing, or might cause, changes in likelihood of
system. These factors are external to the system
of interest to stakeholders in that they are
considered to be beyond the control of these
stakeholders. Driving forces can include change
in demographical, social, economic and
environmental factors. The category of
driving forces includes 54 frequencies in QDR
2014, and occupied 33 percent of the total
frequencies of the whole text. See figures and
the tables. This category addressed the role of
the Unites States and its exercise global
leadership in supporting its interests
2- Uncertainties/ Wild Cards (Un)
Uncertainties are wicked problems which resist to
be solved with conventional methods of scientific
inquiry. This type of problems is probably needs
a multi-disciplinary approach or multiple types
of knowledge. They are likely to require people
to change their mindsets and behaviors. The
category of Uncertainties/ Wild Cards includes 24
frequencies in QDR 2014, and occupied 14 percent
of the total frequencies of the whole
text 3- Strategy (St) The category of Strategy
which represents the major of the Quadrennial
Defense Review 2014 frequencies, it contains 58
frequencies, and occupied 35 percent of the total
frequencies of the whole text. Noting that, the
QDR 2014 was strategy-driven and
resource-informed process focused on preparing
the Department of Defense for the future and
prioritizing our efforts in period of fiscal
austerity (QDR, 2014, p. 1)? Therefore we
conclude that the strategy is the central theme
of 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review 4- Weak
Signals (We)Weak Signals are the anticipating
indicator events of the coming changes in the
future, and detecting weak signals is the main
activity for acquiring information and gathering
data to make changes in strategies and policies
to avoid chaos and disaster of future surprises
(Elina Hiltunen, 2008). The category of Weak
Signals (We) includes 30 frequencies in QDR 2014,
and occupied 18 percent of the total frequencies
of the whole text
CONCLUSION The content analysis process of
Quadrennial Defense Review 2014 has shown a huge
development in terms of distributed frequencies
at each category, if we compare the development
frequencies percentage that addressed the
uncertainties and weak signals categories in QDR
2006 where they represented just 7 percent from
whole text which contributed its 93 percent to
the Strategy and driving forces issues, and
exceeds 20 percent of the total frequencies of
Quadrennial Defense Review of 2014.
Although, the increasing percentage of
uncertainties and weak signals categories in
previous Quadrennial Defense Reviews has
redoubled twice in QDR 2014 and exceeds 30
percent of the whole report. See the figures.
Regardless, the strategy-driven nature of
Quadrennial Defense Review, the wide range of
weak signals and critical uncertainties facing
the United States in security environment has
escalated dramatically, especially the fiscal
austerity that constrained the Department of
Defenses future investment plans and
initiatives. In addition, the growing cost in
personal accounts are already raised the pressure
on investment, especially RD and procurement.
The urge need to build a robust strategy and
make the right assessment of the security
environment is getting more and more difficult
especially when the security threats were blur
and cloudy. During the Cold War, the NATO
alliance and most of other nations of the
noncommunist world saw the potential expansion of
the Soviet Union as clear and present danger
against which well-defined security plans
(strategies/driving forces) were an absolute
necessity. Therefore, the previous QDRs were
spending much attention on plans or the so-called
Strategies/Driving forces. However, the rapid
changing nature of security environment and the
rising of new threats and challenges have brought
the American strategists to pay more attention to
weak signals ascendance that might detect
dramatic changes in the near future.
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