Population Dynamics and Economic Development: An Assessment of Recent Research - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Population Dynamics and Economic Development: An Assessment of Recent Research PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 775371-MDJmY



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Population Dynamics and Economic Development: An Assessment of Recent Research

Description:

Population Dynamics and Economic Development: An Assessment of Recent Research Shareen Joshi In 2005, the Population and Development Working Group outlined three ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:11
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Date added: 11 September 2018
Slides: 20
Provided by: UIS77
Learn more at: http://www.prb.org
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Population Dynamics and Economic Development: An Assessment of Recent Research


1
Population Dynamics and EconomicDevelopment An
Assessment of Recent Research
  • Shareen Joshi

2
In 2005, the Population and Development Working
Group outlined three major research questions
  1. Given the projected trends in fertility and
    mortality changes, what are the implications for
    economic growth and income distribution and the
    incidence of poverty?
  2. How does investment in reproductive health affect
    economic conditions at the household level?
  3. How do different types of investments in
    reproductive health affect the health of women
    and their children?

3
They also outlined four priorities for
data-collection
  1. Collection of new cross-sectional data
  2. Development of panel datasets
  3. Collection of sub-national data for large
    countries with significant internal variation
  4. Use of random assignment evaluation methods

4
Questions for today
  • How far along are we in answering the three
    questions?
  • To what extent have we succeeded in collecting
    new and innovative datasets?
  • What gaps remain?

5
Theme 1 The relationship between fertility
change and economic growth, the distribution of
income and the incidence of poverty
  • Health improvements have at best only modest
    positive effects on economic growth
  • Main reason Health improvements are usually not
    accompanied by a fall in fertility
  • Fertility stays high because (a) more children
    survive (b) more women reach child bearing age
  • These improvements take a long time to
    materialize
  • The impacts can be heterogeneous across not only
    regions, but also countries and districts
  • Foster and Weil (Brown University)
  • Relationship between health improvements,
    fertility, reduction and GDP growth
  • Ruben and Kamazima (Radboud University)
  • Using data from 32 sub-Saharan African countries
    to find out whether investments in such services
    generate wealth and economic growth at the
    household and district level.

6
Theme 2 The impact of reproductive health
programs on the health of women and their children
  • The piloted programs have a variety of features
  • Health services
  • Family planning
  • Reproductive health services
  • Safe delivery support
  • Cost reductions
  • Cash incentives
  • Free or subsidized care
  • Educational supports
  • Health education
  • HIV risk information
  • Financial literacy
  • Other types of basic education
  • Some pay attention to the needs of distinct sub-
    populations (for example, adolescents)
  1. Dow (Berkeley)
  2. Vera-Hernandez (Institute of Fiscal Studies)
  3. Hallman (Population Council)
  4. Ashraf and Fields (Harvard University)
  5. Thomas and Frankenburg (Duke University)
  6. Lam and Liebbrandt (University of Michigan and
    Capetown)
  7. Ruben and Kamazima (Radboud University)

7
Theme 3 The impact of reproductive health
programs on the economic status of households
  • Improved reproductive health and lower fertility
    is associated with benefits for the household
  • Higher savings
  • Higher asset holdings
  • More expenditures on human capital investments in
    children
  • Reproductive health shocks can generate short and
    long-term economic shocks for a household
  • The effects of a reproductive health program may
    be heterogeneous across a population
  • Lowering of teen fertility different from birth
    spacing at older ages
  • Many of the previously listed studies also look
    at this issue
  • Hill and Aryeetey (Harvard University)
  • Hooimeijer (Utrecht University) and Musahara
    (National University of Rwanda)
  • Lam and Liebbrandt (Univ of Michigan and
    Capetown)
  • Thomas and Frankenberg (Duke Univ)

8
Questions for today
  • How far along are we in answering the three
    questions?
  • To what extent have we succeeded in collecting
    new and innovative datasets?
  • What gaps remain?

9
Progress in gathering data
  • New cross-sectional data
  • Development of panel datasets
  • Collection of sub-national data for large
    countries with significant internal variation
  • Use of random assignment evaluation methods
  • Randomized trials
  • Dow (Southern Tanzania)
  • Vera-Hernandez (Malawi)
  • Hallman (South Africa)
  • Ashraf and Field (Zambia)
  • Thomas and Frankenburg (Bangladesh)
  • Panel datasets
  • Filippe (Burkina Faso)
  • Baschieri (Malawi)
  • Foster and Weil (India and others)
  • Hill and Aryeetey (Ghana)
  • Thomas and Frankenburg (Indonesia)
  • Ruben and Kamazima (Sub-Saharan Africa)
  • Lam and Liebbrandt (South Africa)
  • Hooimeijer and Musahara (Rwanda)

10
Questions for today
  • How far along are we in answering the three
    questions?
  • To what extent have we succeeded in collecting
    new and innovative datasets?
  • What gaps remain? What new questions have
    emerged?
  • Macro
  • Micro

11
Additional questions from macro-studies
  • What is different about fertility decline in
    Sub-Saharan Africa (as compared to East Asia)?
  • Is it driven by lower levels of education and/or
    information dissemination?
  • Is high fertility a response to perceived risks
    of new epidemics, famines, wars, and other risks
    of mortality in this region?
  • To what extent does the structure and composition
    of the household affect the preferences of women
    who are being targeted by family planning
    programs? What, if any, role does culture play
    here?
  • Are there mechanisms other than fertility that
    could drive the relationship between health
    improvements and economic growth?
  • Examples Technological innovation and adoption
  • What is the source of bias in the
    policy-literature (based on the use of
    cross-country regressions) on this issue?

12
Additional questions from the micro-studies
  1. What specifically do we mean by reproductive
    health?
  2. How do you define and measure womens
    empowerment?
  3. What are the core constituents of a reproductive
    health program?
  4. How, and in what cases, do we generalize the
    results of small randomized experiments?
  5. What is the role of contextual factors?
  6. Can successful randomized experiments be scaled
    up?
  7. What is the appropriate time-frame to measure the
    impact of an intervention that is aimed at
    fertility decline?

13
1. What specifically do we mean by reproductive
health?
  • The Hewlett studies have included the following
  • Family planning
  • Birth spacing
  • Prevention of unwanted births
  • Provision of various technologies and follow-up
    supports
  • Access to adequate nutrition, particularly during
    pregnancy and while breast-feeding
  • Maternal morbidity
  • Maternal mortality reduction
  • Post-partum health issues
  • Health services for young children
  • HIV treatment, awareness and counseling
  • Prevention and treatment of other sexually
    transmitted diseases

14
2. How do you define and measure female
empowerment?
  • The 2005 Working Group hoped that new research
    would estimate the impact of improved
    reproductive health and fertility decline on
    female empowerment
  • A challenge to this measuring female empowerment
  • What it may include
  • Greater decision-making authority within the
    household
  • Greater control over resources within the
    household
  • Greater contribution to household resources
    (higher incomes, more assets)
  • Expanded social networks
  • More access to information
  • Greater participation in community activities
  • Greater access to community/social supports
  • Freedom from violence
  • How do you measure these?

15
3. What (if any) are the core elements of a
reproductive health program?
  • Services featured in the Hewlett studies
  • Family planning and follow-up?
  • HIV counseling, risk-reduction and treatment?
  • Maternal morbidity and mortality?
  • Nutritional supplements?
  • General health education?
  • Other supports (financial literacy, other
    education)?
  • General counseling and support
  • Special interventions for adolescents and/or
    older women?
  • Which of these are high priority?

16
4. How do you generalize the results of small
randomized experiments?
  • The new research provides a variety of
    perspectives on best practices in the area of
    reproductive health programs
  • Can these be generalized? Can the observed
    relationships be assumed to hold in other
    settings?
  • Examples
  • Does the presence of a husband at the time of
    offering family-planning services always affect
    impact? In South Asia, should we worry about the
    presence of a mother-in-law? (Ashraf and Field)
  • Does the provision of basic financial literacy
    and other supports to women always impact their
    decision-making authority in the household (Dow)?

17
5. How do we systematize the study of
contextual factors?
  • Some the new results suggest that it is important
    for policy-makers to consider the context in
    which reproductive decisions are made (Ashraf and
    Field)
  • How do we define and quantify these additional
    variables?
  • How should we conceptualize the control structure
    of a household?
  • How do we measure the power of a woman to make
    her own reproductive decisions?
  • How do we address variations in fertility
    preferences of men and women? older and younger
    household members?
  • Main challenges in doing this
  • Structure of control within a household is
    typically quite complex
  • There is variation across geographies, cultures,
    religions, economic systems, socio-economic
    groups

18
6. How do you scale up a successful randomized
experiment?
  • Some of the new research features interventions
    that are labor-intensive and expensive. Examples
  • Cash incentives to participate in programs
  • The provision of basic financial literacy,
    employment skills, and encouragement of greater
    decision making
  • Use of separate strategies for heterogeneous
    populations
  • Where shown to be successful, can these be
    efficiently scaled up?
  • Is it possible for policy-makers to identify some
    core drivers of success?
  • Can the management challenges of implementing
    such programs over large populations be
    reasonably overcome?

19
7. What is the best time-frame for evaluating
reproductive health programs?
  • Many of the interventions have been implemented
    on a relatively short horizon
  • On average, these are 14 years, with some
    exceptions
  • Existing research suggests that full impact may
    take up 20 years to have their strongest effects
    (Thomas and Frankenberg Joshi and Schultz,
    2007).
  • Long-time frames may be essential to observe some
    effects
  • Improvements in female decision-making authority
  • Household savings and asset holdings
  • Investments in children
  • How do we deal with this issue from the
    standpoint of research? Policy?
About PowerShow.com