Projecting transient populations - pragmatism or technical correctness? BSPS Conference Sep 2004 Richard CooperResearch team Nottinghamshire County Council - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Projecting transient populations - pragmatism or technical correctness? BSPS Conference Sep 2004 Richard CooperResearch team Nottinghamshire County Council

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Title: Projecting transient populations - pragmatism or technical correctness? BSPS Conference Sep 2004 Richard CooperResearch team Nottinghamshire County Council


1
Projecting transient populations - pragmatism
or technical correctness?BSPS Conference
Sep 2004Richard Cooper Research
team Nottinghamshire County Council
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Joint Structure Plan housing figures
  • Regional Planning Guidance (1996-based) 49,000
    dwellings 2001-21
  • Joint Structure plan accepts total
  • Distribution to sub-areas
  • South Nottinghamshire 37,000
  • Nottingham City supply of 18,500

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Population projections for Nottingham City
  • Basis is a set number of dwellings
  • Early projections were dwelling-led but
  • Migration levels varied widely
  • Migration-led projection needed
  • More robust output
  • More up-to-date information available
  • City wanted age / gender projection

5
Knowns and unknowns
  • How many houses but not types of house,
    household or occupants
  • Age/gender of residents and migrants but not
    future migrants
  • Characteristics of residents but not how those
    may change

6
Modelling the population
  • Changing housing provision (e.g. more flats)
  • Assumptions that data in the model will still
    pertain -
  • the migration profile remains the same
  • characteristics (fertility, household generation,
    etc.) of population remain same for age, gender
    relationship

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Nottingham City 2001 Census
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Nottinghamshire (rest of Plan Area) 2001 Census
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Age profile of some JSP districts
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Nottingham city projection no transient
population
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Effects of ignoring the transient population
  • Age structure would have many more adults 35-44,
    (and fewer 15-24)
  • ageing through fertile and household creation
    ages
  • For a set number of dwellings (18,500)
  • 8,000 fewer (30 less growth)
  • For a certain migration level
  • 2,500 more dwellings

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But why is this a problem (to Notts!) ?
  • Decision to use Patient Register data
  • From ONS used in mid-year estimates
  • More up-to-date
  • More complete than the Census (includes students)
  • 3 years data - 1997-2000
  • More accurate?

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A problem ? (2)
3,000 more net in-migrants 15-19 but are these
all students?
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A problem ? (3)
  • Transient population used where migration data
    does not handle flows adequately (1991 Census)
  • If migration data complete there is no need for a
    transient population - in theory OK
  • However, results did not show sensible outcome
    it appeared that some student migrants were being
    excluded

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Determining a transient population
  • Needed a reality check
  • Thought that transient population in CPHM was
    wrong for application to Patient Register
    migration
  • How do you decide on a transient population when
    some information is missing?
  • What should the relevant (20-24) population be
    doing?
  • It does not remain absolutely constant, even
    though student numbers may do so so how does it
    change?
  • Look at births 20 years ago, not for absolute
    numbers but for trends

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What the 20-24 year old projectionss should be
showing
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Changes to 20-24 yr old population 2001 - 2016
Original projection has no transient
adjustment May 2003 resulted from City suggestion
in setting transient population Mar 2004 accounts
for latest information and migration-led
projection
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How does it compare? (1)
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How does it compare? (2)
NB 1996 trend-based, so unusable for Structure
Plan Methodology incorporated separate student
adjustment
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How does it compare? (2)
Main difference is higher 35-54 population in JSP
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