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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE OCTOBER 2007

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Chile s National Accounts Development and Current Situation Carmen Gloria Escobar National Accounts Department Central Bank of Chile OCDE Working Party on National ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE OCTOBER 2007


1
Chiles National AccountsDevelopment and Current
Situation
  • Carmen Gloria Escobar
  • National Accounts Department
  • Central Bank of Chile

OCDE Working Party on National Accounts Tour
Europe, Paris La Défense 3-5 October, 2007
2
Subjects
  1. Institutional framework and organization
  2. Conceptual framework and main products
  3. Publication and revision policy
  4. International assessment
  5. Future agenda

3
Institutional framework organization
4
Institutional framework
  • In Chile, the institutional framework for
    producing economic statistics is a shared
    responsibility between the Central Bank of Chile
    and the National Statistics Bureau (INE).
  • In the particular case of National Accounts,
    statistics are compiled and disseminated by the
    Central Bank, in the Statistical Information and
    Research office (GIIE).
  • Within the GIIE, the compiling unit is the
    National Accounts Department (DCN).

5
Organization
  • The DCN is a team of 35 professionals, mostly
    economists.
  • The DCN is organized into 7 working groups.

6
Conceptual framework main products
7
Conceptual framework
  • The DCN follows the recommendations of the 1993
    National Accounts System (1993 SNA) as the
    general framework for compiling the national
    accounts.
  • Implementing such framework has been a gradual
    process since the last exercises that changed the
    base year.
  • Chiles national accounts are compiled on a fixed
    base (2003 base).
  • Regarding classifiers, the ISIC Rev.3 and the CPC
    are used. Implementation of COFOG and COICOP is
    under way.

8
Products
  • Complying with international standards, the DCN
    makes follow-up compilations in various
    frequencies
  • Benchmark compilations
  • Annual
  • Quarterly
  • Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC)
  • In addition, regional accounts are prepared, for
    each of the regions the country is politically
    divided into.

9
Benchmark compilation
  • The 2003 benchmark compilation is the fifth one
    to have been developed in Chile. Previous base
    years were 1962, 1977, 1986 and 1996.
  • The compilation period has been reduced from ten
    (1986-1996) to seven years (1996-2003). Next
    measurement is scheduled for 2008.
  • In benchmark compilations, special data
    collection is carried out to cover economic areas
    that do not have permanent information.

10
Benchmark compilation
  • Aggregate information on products and activities
    was structured into the Supply and Use Tables.
  • The system contains 73 economic activities and
    products.
  • In turn, information on institutional units is
    organized into the integrated economic accounts.

11
Annual national accounts
  • The full National Accounts scheme is developed,
    with the exception of balance sheets.
  • The sources of information are administrative
    records, economic surveys, financial statements,
    yearbooks and diverse statistical reports and
    figures.
  • Compilation methods depend on the sectors
    characteristics and available sources of
    information.
  • Publication is done for 26 activities and
    products.

12
Annual national accounts
  • Regarding integrated economic accounts, they are
    published for the following sectors financial
    and non-financial institutions, general
    government, households and private non-profit
    institutions serving households and the rest of
    the world.
  • These are broken down by institutional unit or
    group, itemized by production, income and
    expenditure, capital, and financial transactions
    statements in an integrated manner.

13
Quarterly national accounts
  • These are based on production indicators that
    extrapolate the various components of the 2003
    benchmark compilation, which are adjusted to
    annual accounts through the method of temporal
    disaggregation proposed by Denton.
  • Supply-Use Tables are balanced at a level of 33
    products and activities, and the publication is
    made at a level of 22 economic activities.
  • Sources of information
  • Origin Basic sources of information are
    production indicators by sector, as well as
    foreign trade data.
  • Expenditure Basic sources of information are
    indicators for consumption and sales, imported
    machinery, engineering works survey, inventory
    survey and Customs data for foreign trade.

14
IMACEC
  • The Imacec is a synthetic indicator of monthly
    production by all economic sectors combined, at
    constant prices.
  • It is a proxy for GDP variations.
  • The Imacec is compiled from 73 productive
    sectors. However, only the aggregate is
    published.
  • The Imacec is estimated through an accounting
    approach, using a Laspeyres volume index obtained
    by taking integrals of monthly production indexes
    from relevant industries, according to the
    structure of base year 2003.
  • Both the original series and the
    seasonally-adjusted series are published.

15
Regional accounts
  • Regional accounts are prepared only for the
    production side. Gross Regional Production Value
    (VBPR) and Regional Intermediate Consumption
    (CIR) are estimated, which yield the Regional
    Value Added (VAR) by difference and only for the
    benchmark year.
  • Accounting and fiscal information is used
    together with direct surveys to producers and
    general statistical sources.
  • For follow-up, the base years VAR is
    extrapolated by regional quantum indexes, keeping
    the base years CIR/VBPR ratio.

16
Publication and revision policy
17
Publication and revision policy
  • A revision policy exists that is public and with
    pre-determined dates, which are consistent with
    quarterly and annual publications.

18
Publication and revision policy
  • A revision policy exists that is public and with
    pre-determined dates, which are consistent with
    quarterly and annual publications.

19
Publication and revision policy
  • A revision policy exists that is public and with
    pre-determined dates, which are consistent with
    quarterly and annual publications.

20
Publication and revision policy
  • A revision policy exists that is public and with
    pre-determined dates, which are consistent with
    quarterly and annual publications.

21
International assessment
22
International assessment 2003 Benchmark
compilation
  • 4 - 17 January 2006 An IMF mission aimed at
    analyzing and evaluating works associated with
    the 2003 benchmark compilation and the
    implementation strategy used.
  • The mission used the guidelines of the Data
    Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), which is
    based on the methodology used to assess the
    Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes
    (ROSC).
  • Positive general assessment, with minor
    observations to specific treatments dwelling,
    repairs, natural growth in agricultural crops,
    fixed capital consumption.

23
International assessment National Accounts
  • 18 April to 2 May 2007 IMF mission aimed at
    preparing a Report on the Observance of Standards
    and Codes in the area of macroeconomic statistics
    (ROSC-Data Module). Said report considers the
    IMFs assessment framework DQAF.
  • Favorable IMF assessment.

24
International assessmentNational Accounts
25
International assessmentNational Accounts
  • The degree of advancement of Chilean national
    accounts is higher than that of emerging
    economies, and lower than that of advanced
    economies.
  • Main recommendations
  • Establish user consultation mechanisms
  • Complete 1993 SNA implementation
  • Improve source data quality
  • Improve retropolation techniques

26
Future agenda
27
Future agenda
  • Actions in progress, 2007
  • Preparation of new 2008 benchmark compilation
  • Implementation of Quarterly financial accounts
  • Assessment of statistical methods for the
    retropolation of series
  • Revision and extension of inventory survey
  • Creation of user contact points to answer
    questions

28
Future agenda
  • Actions contemplated in the 2008 benchmark
    compilation
  • Deepening the application of 1993 SNA
  • Assessment of the reclassification of some mining
    products
  • Greater itemization in processing and publication
    of products and activities
  • Evaluation of the adoption of national accounts
    measurement at constant prices using chain
    indices
  • Enhance joint works with the INE

29
Chiles National AccountsDevelopment and Current
Situation
  • Carmen Gloria Escobar
  • National Accounts Department
  • Central Bank of Chile

OCDE Working Party on National Accounts Tour
Europe, Paris La Défense 3-5 October, 2007
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