Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework

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International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework


1
Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity Opportuni
ties and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the
Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework
  • International conference Millennium Assessment
    Bridging scales and epistemologies

2
New Challenges
  • Millennium development Goals
  • Johannesburg 2010 target
  • CBD biodiversity indicators
  • Applications in the MA
  • National (BINU) and regional EU / OECD
    applications

3
Outline presentation
Previous work GEO3 and PEEP land use
change agricultural intensity climate
change GLOBIO 3 applied to Latin
America Biodiversity Assessment Ecuador Upscaling
national to global Downscaling global to
national 2010 target Global interactive research
4
Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3
  • What is changing
  • biodiversity (ecosystems, species and their
    abundance)
  • natural areas
  • expected trends (scenarios)
  • geographically explicit
  • most vulnerable areas
  • Why is it changing
  • different pressures
  • relative importance of pressures
  • What can we do about it
  • effects of response options (e.g. to reach policy
    targets)

5
Comparison pressure indices Global (GEO3) and
Regional EU (Peep)
6
Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact forest
in EU
7
Suggestions for improvements
Methodology for construction of pressure
indices Considering agricultural landscapes
(agroecosystems) dose-respons relationships from
species abundance literature Upscaling local
information Downscaling global information
8
Overall Biodiversity
B LU Agr For C N F
B Biodiversity of a region LC biodiversity
value for land cover type Agr biodiversity
reduction due to agriculture For biodiversity
reduction due to forestry C biodiversity loss
due to climate change N biodiversity loss due
to Nitrogen pollution F biodviversity loss due
to Fragmentation
9
Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model
10
Biodiversity impact from land use change
11
Examples from literature
12
Biodiversity effects of Land cover change
13
Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity
14
Comparison organic and conventional Farming
15
Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change
16
Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based
on average production intensity (per Farming
System)
Average based on land use change only 30
17
Biodiversity loss per farming system GLOBIO3
pressure approach (2000)
Remaining biodiversity? Forest based farming
system 94 Coastal plantation
mixed 73 Intensive Highland Mixed North
Andes 53
18
Biovalores (ecosistema x producción)
19
Ecosystem quality in Ecuador
20
Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per
ecosystem in Ecuador
21
Área intervenida, mosaico y natural
50-70 ecosystem quality
22
Biodiversity impact from Climate Change
Shifts of Biomes (IMAGE) and species (Euromove)
23
Biodiversity impact from Climate Change
24
Downscaling from the global model Biodiversity
Situation 2000 NCI
Loss by land use change 27 Loss by
international air pollution 0 Loss by climate
change 2 Loss by agricultural
intensification 5 Loss by forest
explotation 1 _________________________________
______ Natural Capital (2000) 65
25
Trends of biodiversity change on quality of
ecosystems
26
Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the
evaluation of the 2010 target
27
End
28
Which process to indicate?
  • The uniformity process of biodiversity loss
  • many rare species becoming more rare and
  • few common species becoming more common
  • (change of abundance or distribution of species)

Main factors - habitat loss - loss
ecosystem quality
29
The Natural Capital Index Biodiversity area
size x ecosystem quality
Ecosystem quality average abundance/distribution
of a set of characteristic species in relation
to an ideal, original or historical reference
30
Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems
31
Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two
ecosystems in Ecuador
87,23
7,35
77,05
2,83
bha 87,23
5,1
28,20
7,14
15,96
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