Security in Europe during the Cold War period

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Security in Europe during the Cold War period
European security

• Dr. Arunas Molis
• 22 April, 2014
• Tallinn

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Content

• Start and end of the Cold War
• Origins of the Cold War
• The USSR behavior during the Cold War
• Western security strategy

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Start of the Cold War

• 1947 - Truman Doctrine and Marshal plan

http//www.youtube.com/watch?vKMbJdZfTkzU
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End of the Cold War

• The agreement signed by the leaders of Belarus,
  Russia and Ukraine at the Belovezh forest on 8
  December 1991 declared the Soviet Union dissolved
  and CIS created
• The parliaments of the three states ratified the
  agreement on 10-12 December 1991, and on 21
  December the Alma Ata protocol was signed,
  pursuant to which another eight former soviet
  republics joined the CIS

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Dominant security concerns

• Cold War two security systems with
• threat of military aggression
• competition among main global players
• After the Cold war 1 security system with
• ethno-religious nationalism
• economic stagnation
• civil wars
• environmental degradation
• autocratic rule

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Origins of the Cold War

• Nuclear deterrence
• Fear of self destruction, nuclear tensions

Crisis Year Length Threat Nuclear STRATEGIC WEAPONS Nuclear STRATEGIC WEAPONS
by U.S.A U.S.S.R
1 IRAN I 1946 One day USA 40 0
2 YUGOSLAVIA 1946 One day USA 40 0
3 BERLIN I 1948 15 months USA 120 0
4 KOREA 1950 36 months USA 400 ?
5 VIETNAM I 1954 3 months USA 1200 ?
6 CHINA I 1954 8 months USA 1200 ?
7 SUEZ 1956 7 days USSR USA 2100 60
8 CHINA II 1958 2 months USA 3000 110
9 BERLIN II 1959 4 months USA 3200 175
10 BERLIN III 1961 4 months USA 3600 240
11 CUBA 1962 2 weeks USSR USA 3900 300
12 VIETNAM II 1969 3 months USA 4000 1400
13 JORDAN 1970 2 weeks USA 4000 1800
14 ISRAEL 1973 19 days USA 6800 2200
15 IRAN II 1980 6 months USA 10312 6846
16 FIRST STRIKE 1983-85 24 months USA
Total Threat 1945-85 107 months of nuclear crisis Nuclear Winter Threat
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Origins of the Cold War

• Arms race
• US 13 trillions USD for defence, except nuclear
  program
• Ideological confrontation
• war for hearts and minds

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Origins of the Cold War

• Struggle for Europe
• Germany, Berlin
• Partition of Europe
• Proxy wars for influence
• Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Indochina, Middle
  East and Latin America

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USSR Creating a buffer of satellite states

• Success
• Baltic states reincorporated to USSR
• Communist governments installed in East Germany,
  Albania, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria,
  Czechoslovakia
• Failure
• Northern Iran wasnt drawn to the Soviet orbit
• Greece could have become one of the socialist
  states
• Sour relations with Yugoslavia after restraints
  on Tito

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Buffer of satellite states
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Suppressions in Eastern Europe

• 1956 in Poland and Hungary
• 1968 in Czechoslovakia

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Western (the US) strategy (1)

• Containment (1947-1953) resist Soviet Union
  wherever it is possible
• Assistance to Greece and Turkey, Marshal plan
• War in Korea (19501953)
• Massive retaliation (1953-1961) roll back of the
  communism
• Increase of nuclear warheads
• Berlin crisis (wall in 1961)
• Cuban missile crises (soviet deployment in 1962)

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Western (the US) strategy (2)

• Detante policy (1969-1979)
• Balance of power
• End of Vietnam war
• Kirkpatrick doctrine
• Support to authoritarian leaders who resist to
  Soviet Union expansion

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Questions?