Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort

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Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the
China LEAP Modeling Effort

• Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
• EETC, Tsinghua University, China
• 4th Asia Energy Security Workshop
• 6-7 November 2006, Beijing, China

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Part A Update on the Chinese Energy Sector

• Yanjia Wang

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Where Does Chinas Energy Go?

• Basic facts in 2005
• Primary energy production 2.063 billion tce, 10
  higher than previous year
• Total energy consumption 2.225 billion tce,
  9.47 higher than 2004
• Coal consumption 2.14 billion ton, 11.4 higher
• Power installed capacity 517.18GW, 16.9 higher
• Power generated 2,497.5TWh, 13.82 higher
• Crude oil consumption 3300 million ton, 13.8
  higher
• Crud oil import (net) 119 million ton, 1.4
  higher
• Petroleum import (net) 143.6 million ton, 5.2
  less
• Elasticity of energy production consumption
  0.96
• Elasticity of electricity production 1.24
• Elasticity of electricity consumption 1.22

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Where Does Chinas Energy Go?

• Macro control effected, but still a long way to
  go

2002 2003 2004 2005
Elasticity of energy consumption 0.66 1.53 1.59 0.96
Elasticity of electricity consumption 1.30 1.56 1.52 1.22
Growth of crude oil import (net) -- 33.4 41.4 1.45
Growth of oil products import (net) -- 49.3 83.6 -33.9
Commissioned power capacity 50GW 66.7GW
Total energy consumption growth rate 6.0 15.3 16.1 9.5
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Coal Plays Dominate Role Continuously
Energy Production Energy Production Energy Production Energy Production Energy Consumption Energy Consumption Energy Consumption Energy Consumption
Year 1990 2003 2004 2005 1990 2003 2004 2005
Coal 74.2 75.1 76.0 76.3 76.2 68.4 68.0 68.7
Oil 19.0 14.8 13.4 12.6 16.6 22.2 22.3 21.2
NG 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.8
Elec. 4.8 7.3 7.7 7.9 5.1 6.8 7.1 7.3
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Power Industry
Year Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Share/ Share/ Share/ Share/
Year Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear
1980 65.9 45.6 20.3 -- 100 69.2 30.8 --
1990 137.89 101.84 36.05 -- 100 73.9 26.1 --
1995 217.22 162.94 52.18 2.10 100 75.0 24.0 0.1
2000 319.32 237.54 79.25 2.10 100 74.4 24.8 0.1
2003 391.41 289.77 94.90 6.19 100 74.0 24.2 1.6
2005 517.85 391.37 116.52 8.7 Wind 1.26GW PV 15MW 100 75.90 22.5 1.6
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1972-2004 New Constructed Power Plant (104 kW)
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINA
???
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Renewable Energy Law Effected on Jan. 1st 2006

• NDRC issued a document for pricing renewable
  energy for power generation on Jan. 4th 2006.
• Biomass for power tariff coal-fired tariff
  (including deSOx) 0.25yuan/kWh for 15 years
• Wind power tendering price and lowest bidders
  price
• PV, geothermal, wave.. project based approval
  price

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20 Energy Efficiency Target

• National 11th Five-Year Plan(2006-2010) Energy
  intensity of GDP will decrease about 20 within 5
  years.
• Give a quantified target on energy efficiency for
  the first time in five-year plans
• Divide total target to provincial, large
  industrial group, city, large energy consumers
  target to implement.

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Tremendous Efforts Must be Made on Energy
Efficiency Improvement
GDP Annual Growth Rate (2006-2010) () Total GDP Growth during 2006 to 2010 (Times) Energy Elasticity
7.0 1.403 0.303
7.5(Government anticipation 2006-2010) 1.436 0.341
8.5 1.504 0.403
9.0(2000-2005 average ) 1.539 0.429
9.9(growth rate of 2005) 1.603 0.468
10.0 1.615 0.472
11.0 1.685 0.508
15.0(GDP double within 5 years) 2.011 0.602
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Three Gorge Hydropower Fully Operate for the
First Time

• 14700MW generators fully operate on Oct. 18 2006
• 14700MW generators commissioned on Sept. 2005
• The first generator commissioned on July 2003
• 26700MW generators will commission by the end of
  2008
• Sluice will reach designed level-- 156 meter
• Water level before 156 meter (bottom) (taken on
  Aug. 8th 2006)
• Water level reached 154.24 meter (top) (taken on
  Oct. 22, 2006)

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40GW Nuclear Power by 2020
Weihai, 195MW Domestic Gas cooling
reactor, Another two plants in Rongchen, Hai Yang
are under planning
Hongheyan 2GW, 2011 finished
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Operated Nuclear Power Plant List
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Qinshan I
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Qinshan II
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Qinshan III
China Vice Primary Minister and Canadian Primary
Minister attend the creamery of Qinshan III
commissioned
2700 MW US2.88 billion
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Daya Bay
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Location of Nuclear Power Plants in Asia
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Part BChina LEAP Modeling Effort
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Basic assumptions

• Base year 2000 (2005)
• Target year 2030
• Dataset AES2005
• LEAP2006 (slow calculation)
• Three scenarios BAU, NAP,RAP
• Check inputs and outputs of base year (finish)
• GDP adjustment in 2004

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The construction of new socialist countryside in
China

• Narrow the widening gap between rural and urban Ch
  ina
• Improve agricultural production, living standards
  and public administration in the rural areas
• Rural facilities will be improved
• Rural consumption structure will be changed

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Wind power industry update

• Wind power installed capacity in 2005 1.26GW,
  increment 0.498 GW (39)
• Localization of 70
• Initial investment 7500-8500 yuan/kW
• In 2020, wind power installed capacity 30GW
  (finish)

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CDM projects in China

• CDM projects will decrease the operation cost in
  power industry in China (doing)
• Emission factor in China about 0.8
  kgCO2e/kWh(coal-fired)
• CERs (Certified emission reductions) US
  10/tCO2e
• Emission reduction benefits 0.064yuan/kWh
• Average electricity tariff 0.309 yuan/kWh

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Nuclear power scenarios in China
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Nuclear
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Adjustment
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Ongoing

• Transport sector (substitute fuel development)
• Renewable energy development in China renewable
  energy power plants
• ......

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Thank you!

• gal_at_tsinghua.edu.cn